The 2023 FIBA World Cup Finals have been set but the most attention may go to the third place game. The United States, favourites to win the tournament from the start, were shocked in the semifinals, losing to Germany 113-111.
Awaiting them will be Canada, whose semi-final appearance against Serbia marked their best ever finish at a FIBA World Cup. In the preview below, we’ll find out how we got here, how we expect this game to go, and the best bets to monitor.
Canada’s game against the USA is on Sunday September 10th, at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Bet on Canada vs. United States
CAN +7.5
USA -7.5
How We Got Here
For Team Canada, being in the third-place game is something of a bittersweet thing. Sure, they have never gotten this far before and have the chance to capture their first-ever medal in the competition. Yet after beating Slovenia in the quarterfinals, the taste of a championship was right on the tip of the tough. Instead, they were dealt defeat at the hands of the Serbians, setting the stage for this game.
For the United States, things seemed like they were going to plan. They dominated Group C in the first Group stage. Even finishing second to Lithuania in Group J, the end result never felt in doubt. Yet here we stand. Even a late flurry to overcome a flurry of offence from the Germans wasn’t enough, and the U.S. lost in the end by a score of 113-111.
By every conceivable metric, this is a major disappointment for the U.S. team With an NBA-heavy roster, there was good reason for the U.S. to be favourites the entire way. For a country that expects to dominate, anything short of a championship is seen as a failure — and a bronze medal will feel like the bare minimum.
Game Preview
Entering this game, the Americans are significant favourites according to bet365. They are -290 to win outright, sitting as 7.5-point favourites. The Canadians will enter as underdogs for the first time in this tournament but may relish being in the position of underdog.
The United States roster is full of quality NBA talent. Anthony Edwards, Mikael Bridges, Austin Reeves, Paolo Banchero, and Tyrese Haliburton are just a few of the prominent names. But as the Germans showed, talent doesn’t automatically equate to a win.
The Canadians, however, are no pushovers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be in the running for player of the tournament, especially if Canada captures third. RJ Barrett led the team in scoring in a losing effort to Serbia and has quietly been having a very good tournament himself. With superb perimeter defence by Dillon Brooks, Canada can compete with anyone in the field.
Player props to watch
When the two sides take the floor, all of the attention will be on the stars. If you plan on throwing a few bucks on the game, the player props are definitely going to be the most interesting aspect of the game from a betting perspective. Here are three player props that you should be giving a long look to.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 26.5 Points (-115)
Throughout all of Canada’s successes in this tournament, everything has gone through Gilgeous-Alexander. Aside from the loss to Serbia, where he had 16 points and 9 assists, Gilgeous-Alexander has been the leading scorer by a wide margin. More importantly, he has dominated when needed, the highlight being his dominant performance against France in the Group stage.
Serbia made life tough on him in the semifinals, though he more than made up for it as a distributor. The million-dollar question here is, “How motivated will the Americans be?” Third is nothing to write home for when it comes to a program that has the history the United States does.
For Canada and Gilgeous-Alexander, there should be no lack of motivation. A win would mean the first medal in FIBA World Cup action for Canada, no small achievement. Gilgeous-Alexander is the straw that stirs the drink and that shouldn’t change in this one.
Anthony Edwards, 26.5 Points + Asissts + Rebounds (-125)
Following a quiet performance against Italy where he spent more time on the bench than on the floor, Edwards returned to his dominant status against the Germans. Despite scoring 23 points and adding 8 rebounds and 3 assists, it wasn’t enough to push the Americans over the top.
Edwards, who has become a bona fide superstar in the NBA in recent years, has shown that he can dominate on any stage. The Americans could very well come into this one with a chip on their shoulder, angry at the loss to Germany.
Edwards has the size and skill set to dominate, even against one of the best teams in the field. Edwards is going to get his in this one, it is just a question of how many points and rebounds that will entail.
Dillon Brooks, 12.5 Points (-115)
After a dicey performance in the NBA playoffs, Brooks had the wrong kind of attention. He has since redeemed himself by becoming a focal player for Canada throughout this tournament. He has been known for his ferocious perimeter defence, making him one of the best in the tournament.
But his offensive game has flourished as well. He has been right around the 15-point mark frequently throughout the tournament, posting 16 in the loss to Serbia. Having that kind of contribution from a key defender has been critical for Canada.
He has a lot to prove since he mouthed off against LeBron James and was summarily embarrassed. Plus, there is pride on the line as the Canadians are shooting for their first FIBA World Cup medal. Don’t be shocked to see Brooks go out with a bang here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada) to score over 26.5 Points
-115
Recommended bets
With the player prop bets in mind, it’s time to focus on the game as a whole. Which bets make the most sense? Here are two that you should be considering before the game gets underway:
Canada +7.5 (-110)
Yes, Canada is coming off an 8-point loss to the Serbs. But that was largely due to a hot start for Serbia and an exceptional day from Bogdan Bogdanovic. The 52-39 halftime deficit wound up being too much for Canada to overcome.
With the first potential World Cup medal on the line, Canada should come out ready to play. If the Americans show any disinterest, Canada could walk all over them. Even if they can’t walk away with the win, this one should come down to no more than two possessions when the buzzer sounds.
Over 189.5 (-110)
With this much offensive firepower, it is hard to believe that they won’t hit the over, high as it may be. The United States has posted triple-digits in four of its last five games and Canada has been no stranger to high-scoring games themselves.
The biggest matchup between NBA stars should produce fireworks. Look for as many as three 20+ point scorers and a mess of others in double-digits. In the end, it should lead to a very exciting, high-scoring game that should easily top the 190 mark and push into the low 200s at the very least.
