The Miami Heat are one win away from advancing to their second NBA Finals appearance in four seasons on Tuesday when they host the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series.
Miami cruised to a 128-102 victory on Sunday to push the heavily-favoured Celtics to the brink of elimination and take a 3-0 series lead. The Heat led by 30 points at the end of three quarters, which allowed Jimmy Butler and other key starters the chance to take a seat for the fourth quarter and ease their minutes.
No team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series.
Miami is a 1.5-point home favourite to close out the series on Monday night and the total is set at 216.5 points.
Celtics vs. Heat odds
| Celtics Moneyline Odds | +100 |
| Heat Moneyline Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 216.5 points (over -110, under -110) |
| Spread | Heat -1.5 (-110) |
| Series odds | Heat -1000, Celtics +650 |
| Time/Date | Monday, May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: NBA League Pass (How to watch the NBA in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
Previous meetings
The Heat have won – and covered the spread – in five straight meetings with the Celtics. The teams have also combined to play over the total in five of the past six meetings.
| Date | Home Team | Spread Odds | Result | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2023 (Game 3) | Miami | Celtics -4.5 | 128-102 Heat | 214 (over) |
| May 19, 2023 (Game 2) | Boston | Celtics -10 | 111-105 Heat | 214.5 (over) |
| May 17, 2023 (Game 1) | Boston | Celtics -8.5 | 123-116 Heat | 211 (over) |
| Jan. 24, 2023 | Miami | Heat -2.5 | 98-95 Heat | 215 (under) |
| Dec. 2, 2022 | Boston | Celtics -7 | 120-116 Heat (OT) | 226.5 (over) |
| Nov. 30, 2022 | Boston | Celtics -9.5 | 134-121 Celtics | 225 (over) |
| Oct. 21, 2022 | Miami | Celtics -2 | 111-104 Celtics | 220.5 (under) |
About the Celtics (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS, 11-5 o/u)
The Celtics entered this series as -550 favourites to advance, but now they’re being thoroughly embarrassed by Miami.
Boston’s two best players – Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown – combined to make just 12 of their 35 shots from the floor and a miserable 1-for-14 from beyond the arc. Brown is a horrendous 2-for-20 from long range in the series.
As a team, the Celtics are 31-for-101 (29%) from deep; the Heat are 44-for-92 (48%) from three-point range.
About the Heat (12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 11-5 o/u)
All of the talk coming into this series was about whether or not the Heat had enough secondary scoring to support Butler’s heroics.
Guard Gabe Vincent scored a career-high 29 points to lead all scorers in Game 3 and drained six of his nine three-point attempts. Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Max Strus combined to score a whopping 79 points for the Heat, which took all of the pressure of Butler and big man Bam Adebayo.
Another important bench player for the Heat, Kevin Love, left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, but he’s expected to suit up for Game 4. Love won the NBA title with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016 and has 77 career postseason games on his resume.
Caleb Martin over 11.5 points
Notable injuries
Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) remain out for the Heat. Love (ankle) is probable.
There are no new injury concerns for the Celtics.
Betting trends
- Heat are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
- The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings.
- The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
- The over is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last seven road games.
- The over is 11-2 in the Heat’s last 13 home games.
Player prop trends
- Martin has been a potent scorer in this series, averaging 19.3 points per game. His line for points is 11.5 (-135 over).
- Vincent has at least one steal in seven straight games and eight of his last nine. His line is 0.5 steals (-190 over). This could be a useful leg for a parlay.
- Kyle Lowry has also been a good source of steals, recording at least one in six straight games and eight of his last nine. His line is 0.5 steals (-165 over).
Wagers to consider
- If you believe the Celtics can extend the series and send it back to Boston for Game 5, bet365 has a three-leg same-game parlay consisting of a Celtics moneyline win, Brown 25 or more points, and Tatum to record a double-double that’s boosted from +425 to +500.
- Boston moneyline: +105. Getting the Celtics at plus money in a desperate spot is good value.
- Martin over 1.5 threes (-145). Martin couldn’t be more confident right now and is having an excellent series. He’s drained at least three from long range in each game of the series.
