Once hailed as one of the better teams in Major League Baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays have fallen onto black days. The front office has taken a blossoming core and dwindled it down to a want-to-be Wild Card contender in a year when the best division in baseball, the American League East, is projected to be the most competitive it has been in decades. With the Blue Jays being well below .500 and a long shot to nab the last Wild Card spot, the media is starting to do its thing by calling for change. For those whose job is to polarize the market and engagement farm the hell out of the fanbase, that means moving on from what many people deemed to be the “cornerstone” of the franchise, gifted slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Make no bones about it: We think Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins is as bright as a broken light bulb when negotiating trades. Not to mention his arse, along with Jays President and CEO Mark Shapiro, should’ve already been sacked. Those buffoons are the last people Blue Jays Nation would, or should want, making a move of such magnitude.
Sports Interaction set some preliminary lines earlier this July where the offspring of one of Montreal’s most beloved baseball “phantoms” could land via trade.
We’ll review the lines, offer our thoughts, and then tell you why a big deal is unlikely.
Vlad Jr. next teams odds (if traded this season)
| Team | Odds (courtesy of Sports Interaction) |
| New York Yankees | +300 |
| Seattle Mariners | +500 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +600 |
| San Francisco Giants | +700 |
| Chicago Cubs | +800 |
| Minnesota Twins | +900 |
Remember when Vlad Jr. said he would never, ever play for the New York Yankees? The 2024 All-Star’s opinion has changed since his days of staying idle in naivety. Now, the Yankees are the frontrunners to acquire Guerrero in a mid-summer deal, according to oddsmakers.
Guerrero Jr. to be traded to the Yankees this season
Colour us shocked.
The oddsmakers at SIA have their opinions, but what it all boils down to is what the Yankees can offer. If we had the keys, we’d want a roster player. For us, the roster player would be shortstop Anthony Volpe. If he’s not in the deal, there’s no deal to be made. With the idea that this is an inter-division trade, there has to be another blue-chip prospect, and the Yankees have a good one in outfielder Jasson Domínguez, who seems to be doing well for himself with the Yankees’ Triple-A farm club.
At that point, we’d expect Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman to hang up the phone and block our number. That said, the Yankees lineup could use another bat, and Vlad Jr. would make a very good Bronx Bomber. So when Cashman gets out of his feelings and hits redial, we’d say we’re not backing down from our initial ask. In fact, we’d tell the Yankees to throw in third-ranked pitching prospect Chase Hampton for “playing games.”
In theory, this deal is very much a “pipe dream,” but if the Blue Jays are going to ship out Vlad Jr. to one of their biggest foes, there’s no way he goes to the Bronx for cheap. As much as we despise Atkins’ prior moves, we believe a broken clock can be right two times a day. Add in the fact that the Yankees are big game hunters; we could see a deal taking place between these two clubs.
According to our betting odds calculator, the +300 odds imply a 25% chance of the Jays trading Guerrero to the Yankees. If Vlad Jr. were to be traded, the Yankees would be the most likely team to be willing to pay the prospect capital. If the chatter around the league is to be believed, the Yankees have no problem parting with blue-chip prospects if they’re getting a perennial All-Star in return.
That’s why if we were forced to make a bet, we’d throw a unit on the Yankees.
Hear us out as to why we’re willing to “eat chalk”: The Seattle Mariners NEED Guerrero, especially if they’re in “win-now mode.” Yet, what can the Mariners give Toronto that would make the clowns in the front office pull the trigger on a deal? Mariners top prospect Cole Young is still figuring out where he’s going to slot in defensively on the infield and is “meh” offsensively, at least in our opinion. The Mariners’ other top prospects are “mid.” There’s no one there who Blue Jays brass can justify trading a franchise player for.
The fact is that the Yankees’ weakest offer can triumph over the highest price the Mariners could pay.
Look, we get that it’s hard to trade Guerrero to a division rival, but an infield of Anthony Volpe and Bo Bichette could be deadly once the Jays become competent again. If Domínguez pans out, he could ease the turmoil in the lineup that would come from losing Vlad Jr. in the short term. If Hampton finds a way into the Jays’ starting rotation a few years down the line, the trade is well worth it.
The Cleveland Guardians could try to make a deal with the Blue Jays for Vlad Jr., but insiders have told CSB that if the Guardians go big-game hunting, it’ll be for a starting pitcher. The Guardians wouldn’t be willing to pay a king’s ransom for the All-Star slugger. End of discussion.
All the other teams on the list are just pretenders in our eyes. Some don’t have the means to make a blockbuster transaction. Others don’t have the will.
Why the Jays cornerstones are likely here to stay (for now)
Every madman needs a martyr. The Blue Jays front office has made one out of highly-touted catcher Gabriel Moreno (AND Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) when Atkins and co. traded them to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho. As much as Blue Jays fans wanted to cheer Moreno on in the 2023 World Series when he was arguably the MVP for the D-Backs, it’s a gut punch to basically get Andrew Raycrofted yet again. For real, Toronto sports fans can’t catch a break, minus the Raptors ‘chip.
There’s no way ownership will let this management group make the same move again, especially if ownership wants to purge the front office after the season. The most likely scenario is the entire front office gets sacked at the season’s end, new rulers ascend the Iron Throne, and sign the Jays’ cornerstones to long-term deals. FanDuel concurs with our beliefs and has recently listed Guerrero Jr. as NOT to be traded at -550.
Even the mad can go sane when reason converses with logic. There’s no need to make more martyrs from an already tyrannical front office regime.
