We’re nearing the end of August, meaning we have just over a month left of regular-season Major League Baseball in front of us. It’s been another great year with no shortage of twists and turns, shining stars, and thanks to rule changes, slightly faster action. But not even a pitch clock can hurry up the push to October baseball, so we still have a little bit of time to make some last-second adjustments to our plays.
Let’s take a quick look at where the divisional and World Series odds stand for the 30 teams in the majors, comparing today’s lines from our friends at bet365 to where most of the top books stood on Opening Day.
American League East Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 83-49 | – | 18-8 | +2500 | -375 | +6600 | +700 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 81-52 | 2.5 | 16-8 | +350 | +275 | +2000 | +800 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 72-61 | 11.5 | 13-13 | +190 | +15000 | +1200 | +2800 |
| Boston Red Sox | 69-64 | 14.5 | 13-14 | +2000 | +50000 | +6000 | +20000 |
| New York Yankees | 64-68 | 19.0 | 9-17 | +115 | +100000 | +800 | +75000 |
The safest bet in the world is to assume that the AL East will always be a juggernaut, and that’s by and large remained true this season. Until recently, it was possible to stack the entirety of the division standings above the AL Central, though the biggest surprise – the implosion of the New York Yankees that has only accelerated through this past month – has ruined that statistical quirk. In terms of pleasant surprises, the Baltimore Orioles have been a revelation, jumping from the furthest to shortest odds to win the division over the course of the spring and summer thanks to monster years from the likes of Adley Rutschman, Felix Bautista, Kyle Bradish and rookie sensation Gunnar Henderson. The Tampa Bay Rays remain hot on their tail, as they have a nagging propensity to do.
Canadian fans will obviously want to see the Blue Jays climb up this list, but their frustrating inability to close out high-leverage situations has many wondering if they’ll even hold onto a playoff spot, let alone make a last-gasp push for the division title. Here’s hoping, at least!
Baltimore Orioles to win AL East
-375
American League Central Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 69-64 | – | 15-11 | +200 | -6000 | +3500 | +2500 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 63-70 | 6.0 | 10-16 | +125 | +1500 | +2500 | +25000 |
| Detroit Tigers | 59-73 | 9.5 | 12-14 | +3000 | +12500 | +20000 | +150000 |
| Chicago White Sox | 52-81 | 17.0 | 9-17 | +250 | +200000 | +3500 | +400000 |
| Kansas City Royals | 41-93 | 28.5 | 9-18 | +3000 | OUT | +20000 | +499900 |
The AL Central is the division that deviates the least from the preseason prognostications, but that’s in large part because almost everyone is some form of bad and not a ton was expected to begin with. The Twins are the only team that have managed to stay above .500, and that will likely stay the same through the end of the year with none of the other four ballclubs having a positive August. Perhaps the biggest underachievers here are the White Sox, who were felt to be reasonably competitive but have had nothing short of a disastrous season, leading to changes in the front office earlier this month.
If you don’t already have money in the AL Central candy stand, you’re probably best off just leaving it as is. The Twins aren’t an overly likely World Series threat and there isn’t much to gain in taking them to close out the division.
Minnesota Twins to win World Series
+2500
American League West Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 75-57 | – | 20-6 | +300 | +250 | +1800 | +1200 |
| Texas Rangers | 75-57 | – | 15-11 | +1000 | +200 | +5000 | +900 |
| Houston Astros | 76-58 | – | 16-11 | -190 | +110 | +600 | +650 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 63-70 | 12.5 | 7-19 | +800 | +150000 | +4000 | +125000 |
| Oakland Athletics | 39-94 | 36.5 | 9-17 | +25000 | OUT | +50000 | OUT |
The Seattle Mariners may not have a World Series title to their name, but they will always have a flair for the dramatic. That much has been shown with an exclamation point over the past month, as they’ve posted the second-best August record in the major leagues, going 20-6 (.769). This puts them in a deadlock for the top of the division with the Texas Rangers, who have held the crown for most of the year to date, and the Houston Astros, who were originally expected to win. The books value long-term sustainability over the hot hand, and as such the Astros are the ones who hold the shortest odds of the tied trio – after all, they’re the ones who were supposed to be here. I like the M’s to keep going to some degree, though we’ll see if they can hold this form for long enough to secure the division title.
As for the Los Angeles Angels, who some of us, not naming names, put a little bit of action on after an aggressive trade deadline only to see Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout have varying degrees of injury setback and everyone else struggle around them? Well, I don’t want to talk about it. A bevy of waiver placements yesterday confirm that the dream is, in fact, over. It was fun while it lasted.
Seattle Mariners to win AL West
+250
National League East Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 86-45 | – | 19-8 | +125 | -60000 | +750 | +260 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 74-58 | 12.5 | 17-9 | +300 | +4500 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Miami Marlins | 66-66 | 20.5 | 9-16 | +4000 | +60000 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Washington Nationals | 62-71 | 25.0 | 17-9 | +25000 | +400000 | +50000 | +150000 |
| New York Mets | 60-73 | 27.0 | 10-18 | +170 | +499900 | +900 | +250000 |
The 2021 World Series winners from Atlanta entered the season as the favourites to win the NL East and among the top candidates to win it all and, so far, they’re delivering on their promise, posting the best record in baseball entering September. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been great, and Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Orlando Arcia have supported him to create a team with eight All-Stars, showing their opponents no mercy along the way.
The Phillies are extremely unlikely to catch up to them, though they’re pretty safe bets to get into a Wild Card position and I wouldn’t rule out another deep playoff run for Bryce Harper and pals. By far the biggest disappointment here are the Mets, who went from championship aspirations to deadline sellers as they plan to retool for next year. New York City has gone from a battle of bragging rights between Yankees and Mets fans, to a battle of wanting to pretend this year never happened, and it’s hard to blame either fanbase.
Atlanta Braves to win World Series
+260
National League Central Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 74-58 | – | 17-8 | +160 | -600 | +3500 | +1500 |
| Chicago Cubs | 70-62 | 4.0 | 17-9 | +600 | +360 | +8000 | +4000 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 68-66 | 7.0 | 9-17 | +6600 | +450 | +25000 | +10000 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 60-73 | 14.5 | 13-15 | +4000 | +150000 | +20000 | +175000 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 57-76 | 17.5 | 10-16 | -125 | +200000 | +2000 | +300000 |
This could be one of the more interesting divisions to watch for a last-second bet on the standings. Unfortunately, the clock has seemingly struck midnight for the Cincinnati Reds’ unbelievable mid-season Cinderella story, though we’re all excited to see how Elly De La Cruz’s career progresses from here. The Brewers and Cubs have instead taken a hold of the top with fantastic August runs, with Milwaukee surging largely by committee while Cody Bellinger’s dominant July carried into August with support from Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and All-Star pitcher Justin Steele.
For those looking back from Opening Day, the Cardinals have to be among the biggest disappointments in all of MLB this year. Many of their bats are still having productive years, but the team has been a defensive mess and are all but out of the race with a month to go.
Milwaukee Brewers to win NL Central
-600
National League West Odds
| Team | Record (Today) | GB | Record (August) | Win Div (March) | Win Div (Today) | Win WS (March) | Win WS (Today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 82-49 | – | 23-4 | -120 | -50000 | +425 | +290 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 69-63 | 13.5 | 12-13 | +4000 | +6600 | +12500 | +4000 |
| San Francisco Giants | 69-64 | 14.0 | 11-15 | +1200 | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 |
| San Diego Padres | 62-71 | 21.0 | 10-16 | +115 | +75000 | +900 | +17500 |
| Colorado Rockies | 49-83 | 33.5 | 7-9 | +15000 | +30000 | +499900 |
The Dodgers are inevitable. Like, that’s all there really is to say about the NL West. Colorado is about as bad as one would expect, the D-Backs have been a pleasant surprise but still aren’t really in the mix, and the Padres have been a disappointment, but it was always going to be Los Angeles’ division for the taking. That it would be this extreme of a pull, though, was a bit unexpected, and didn’t even seem overly inevitable a month ago.
Nevertheless, winning 23 of 27 while everyone else goes under .500 will disrupt any discussion. The only questions now are whether Mookie Betts does enough to take over from Acuna Jr. as the NL MVP favourite, and whether or not this team can win their second World Series in four seasons.
Los Angels Dodgers to win World Series
+290
