The American League West Division produced the World Series champions last year and the division is shaping up to have some serious contenders again in 2024.
There was no shortage of drama over the winter for many of the teams in the division, as several clubs either lost — or gained — key pieces via trades and free agency. The most impactful development was Shohei Ohtani’s move from the Los Angeles Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many American League teams will be happy to Shohei moving to the National League, but his departure has decimated Mike Trout and the Angels’ odds of playing postseason baseball this year.
Join CSB as it continues its tour around Major League Baseball ahead of the 2024 season.
Houston Astros
World Series odds: +900
League odds: +400
Division odds: +115
Season win total: 92.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (-400), No (+300)
Record last season: 90-72 (first in AL West – lost in AL Championship Series)
Key departures: OF Michael Brantley, C Martin Maldonado, RHP Hector Neris, RHP Phil Maton, RHP Ryne Stanek
Key additions: LHP Josh Hader, C Victor Caratini
Season outlook: Another year, another projected first-place finish in the division for the Astros, who have claimed the division title in six of the past seven seasons. You won’t find a lot of roster turnover from last year, but the team’s big offseason acquisition was closer Josh Hader, who signed a five-year, $95-million contract as a free agent. He’ll join Ryan Pressly, who notched 31 saves for the Astros last year, in the back end of the bullpen to form a formidable duo locking down leads late in games.
One storyline to follow will be the future of Alex Bregman, who is in the final year of his contract. The team handed out a lucrative contract extension to Jose Altuve this winter, but the team has yet to reach an agreement with Bregman, who could be one of the top free agents on the market next winter. The two-time World Series champion and All-Star third baseman crushed 25 homers and drove in 98 runs last year for Houston.
Best bet: Astros to win AL West: +115. They’re still the team to beat in the division and boast perhaps one of the scariest lineups from one through four in the league with Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. The starting rotation is good, but not great. But Houston’s bullpen should be one of the elite units in the AL, especially after the addition of Hader. Last year, Houston’s pen posted a 3.55 ERA (sixth in the majors) while yielding just 465 hits (least in the majors). Texas will be Houston’s biggest competition for the division pennant, but injury concerns and a depleted bullpen are shrouding the Rangers’ chances of dethroning the Astros.
Houston Astros to win AL West Division
+115
Texas Rangers
World Series odds: +1100
League odds: +500
Division odds: +180
Season win total: 90.5 (over +120, under -150)
To make playoffs: Yes (-200), No (+160)
Record last season: 90-72 (2nd in AL West – Won World Series)
Key departures: C/DH Mitch Garver, LHP Jordan Montgomery, LHP Will Smith, RHP Chris Stratton, LHP Aroldis Chapman
Key additions: RHP Kirby Yates, RHP David Robertson, RHP Tyler Mahle
Season outlook: A tip of the cap to the Rangers on a fine 2023 season and their first World Series title, but it’s not going to be easy to repeat with their current roster. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Seager are all batting injury issues. Scherzer and deGrom likely won’t be ready until July or August and Seager is still recovering from a sports hernia that will likely cause him to start the season on the injured list. Combine those injury concerns with the departures of three key left-handed pitchers (Jordan Montgomery, Will Smith, and Aroldis Chapman) this winter and the Rangers should logically take a small step backwards in 2024, although they still look like a potential playoff team.
This lineup is poised to do some damage again this year after leading the AL in runs scored (881) and homers (233) a year ago. Wyatt Langford, the No. 5 prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, is crushing the ball in spring training and should be a good bet to start the season in the majors. He’ll be competing with his teammate, Evan Carter (No. 6 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s list), for AL Rookie of the Year honours.
Best bet: There’s a very good chance the AL Rookie of the Year will be coming out of Texas. Carter is the favourite with +280 odds, with Langford not far behind at +600. Sandwiched in between the two Rangers is Baltimore Orioles and consensus top MLB prospect, Jackson Holliday, with +400 odds.
Seattle Mariners
World Series odds: +2000
League odds: +1000
Division odds: +260
Season win total: 86.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (-135), No (+105)
Record last season: 88-74 (3rd in AL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: OF Teoscar Hernandez, LHP Robbie Ray, 3B Eugenio Suarez, IF Jose Caballero, LHP Marco Gonzales, OF Jarred Kelenic, C Tom Murphy
Key additions: DH Mitch Garver, OF Mitch Haniger, IF Jorge Polanco, OF Luke Raley, 3B Luis Urias, RHP Gregory Santos
Season outlook: The Mariners seemingly overhaul their roster every offseason, and there was no shortage of winter transactions ahead of the 2024 season. But is the team better this year? It’s really tough to say. Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger should provide some pop, but Julio Rodriguez is still the only elite position player on the roster. Only the Minnesota Twins struck out more than the Mariners last season, and that trend looks likely to continue into 2024.
Luckily for the Mariners, they boast one of the best starting rotations in baseball with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby taking the ball every five days. Right-hander Bryan Woo also looked downright nasty at times last year, boasting one of the most effective fastballs in the league from an analytics perspective. And flamethrower Andres Munoz, whose fastball averaged 99 mph last year, has the potential to be one of the best closers in the league this season.
Best bet: Munoz to lead the majors in saves: +3000. He’s a great sleeper pick to close the most games in baseball this year. The Mariners should be playing plenty of close games given their superior pitching and mediocre offence, giving Munoz plenty of potential save opportunities.
Andres Munoz to lead MLB in saves
+3000
Los Angeles Angels
World Series odds: +7500
League odds: +3500
Division odds: +4500
Season win total: 71.5 (over -115, under -105)
To make playoffs: Yes (+1100), No (-2500)
Record last season: 73-89 (fourth in AL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, IF David Fletcher, C Max Stassi
Key additions: OF Aaron Hicks, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Robert Stephenson
Season outlook: Grim. The Angels, who couldn’t make a playoff push with Ohtani for the past six seasons, now must deal with the demoralizing departure of the two-way sensation to their cross-town rivals. There was hope that the Angels would retain Ohtani to keep them relevant in the American League, but they ultimately couldn’t compete with the superteam that the Dodgers are building.
To make matters worse, the Angels have done pretty much nothing to upgrade their pitching or lineup to this point. However, they are considered to be one the frontrunners to land reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell’s services.
Mike Trout will turn 33 in August, and although he’s under contract through the 2030 season, you have to wonder if he’ll ask for a trade at some point over the next few years to a legitimate World Series contender.
Best bet: Trout under 31.5 home runs: -130. Injuries have plagued Trout over the past four seasons, limiting him to just 290 games during that span (averages out to 72.5 per season). He’s healthy this spring but you have to wonder if he can avoid the injury bug this season? And even if he is relatively healthy this year, he no longer has Ohtani to provide protection for him. Opposing pitchers will be more than happy to nibble on the corners and issue him a free pass now with no other real power threats in the batting order.
Oakland Athletics
World Series odds: +30000
League odds: +15000
Division odds: +30000
Season win total: 56.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (+3300), No (-50000)
Record last season: 50-112 (fifth in AL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: 2B Tony Kemp, RHP Trevor May
Key additions: LHP Alex Wood, RHP Ross Stripling, RHP Trevor Gott, OF Miguel Andujar, LHP Scott Alexander
Season outlook: The A’s were simply awful last season, winning just 50 games to finish with the worst record in the majors and flirting with the modern-era record for most losses in a single season. But this could be the franchise’s last season playing in Oakland as the team eyes a move to Las Vegas in the near future, although there are still several hurdles to clear before relocation.
The truth is that the roster isn’t that much better than last year’s edition, but can the A’s really be any worse than last season? The relocation drama could provide a great distraction for the on-field product and there’s certainly no pressure on the team to be competitive. With the addition of innings-eaters Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, Oakland’s starting rotation is at least serviceable with JP Sears, Paul Blackburn and promising youngster Joe Boyle rounding out the crew.
Best bet: Over 56.5 wins: -110. PECOTA’s projections have the A’s winning 64 games this year and FanGraph’s estimates have them pegged even higher at 71 wins. Yes, Oakland will be awful again, especially after it likely unloads the few veterans on the roster at the trade deadline in July. But it’s not unrealistic for this team to get a morale boost given it could be the team’s final season in Oakland. The A’s have defied the odds with pitiful rosters in the past, and it would be typical for them to exceed their expectations one last time before moving on.
