Although it might not feel like it yet across Canada, spring is right around the corner, and that means baseball season is about to kick into high gear.
Players have reported to their designated spring sites in Florida and Arizona as they begin to prepare for the 2025 MLB season, and that means it’s time for bettors to begin handicapping their futures bets before the first pitch flies on the new season in mid-March over in Tokyo, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will open their respective campaigns.
Every major online sportsbook has released its MLB season win totals by now, so make sure you shop around for the best lines. For the purposes of this article, we’ll be using bet365‘s MLB odds.
Without further ado, here are three MLB season win total plays to lock in now.
Arizona Diamondbacks over 86.5 wins (-105)
PECOTA Projection: 87 wins
FanGraphs Projection: 86 wins
The Diamondbacks made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they signed right-hander Corbin Burnes to a massive six-year deal worth $210 million to bolster their starting rotation. Burnes, a four-time All-Star and the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, gives Arizona perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball heading into the 2025 season, joining Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery. Additionally, Gallen, Kelly, and Montgomery are all entering contract years, so there’s extra motivation for that trio to put up monster numbers this year in anticipation of free agency next winter.
The Diamondbacks put 89 wins on the board last year despite a hobbled pitching staff that was plagued with injuries all season long. If this group can remain healthy, there’s no reason why this team can’t eclipse that win total this year. Losing first baseman Christian Walker and designated hitter Joc Pederson this winter does hurt, but outfielder Corbin Carroll should bounce back from a mediocre 2024 campaign and there’s still enough thunder in the lineup to rank in the middle of the pack of the league in most offensive categories.
Winning the National League West, which features the high-powered Dodgers, is obviously a tall feat for the Diamondbacks, but they certainly have the pitching to contend as a wild-card team in the NL. They’re -115 to make the playoffs at bet365.
Arizona Diamondbacks over 86.5 wins
Atlanta Braves under 93.5 wins (-105)
PECOTA Projection: 93 wins
FanGraphs Projection: 93 wins
The Braves are coming off an 89-win season and I believe their projection is slightly high considering the existing injury issues that will be carrying over to this year. They boast two of the best players in baseball in pitcher Spencer Strider and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., but both of them are rehabbing serious injuries (UCL for Strider and ACL for Acuna Jr.) and are not expected to be ready for Opening Day. Rushing these two MVP-calibre players back from serious injuries is obviously the last thing the Braves want to do, and there’s always the risk of serious setbacks. If these players don’t get back on track and fully healthy by the end of May, the Braves will be really hard-pressed to eclipse 90 wins.
Additionally, I’m not sold on Atlanta’s pitching staff. With a projected Opening-Day rotation of Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and Ian Anderson, I’m not sure there’s enough depth and talent to establish this team as a true World Series contender. Sale revitalized his career with an incredible 2024 campaign that notched him the NL Cy Young Award after a few disappointing years in Boston, but at the age of 35, it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to replicate his dominant numbers from last season. Pitchers Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and AJ Minter departed Atlanta this winter, and the Braves are banking on internal options to step up and fill the void left by these three established hurlers. I’m not convinced that’s possible.
If everything goes right, the Braves could win 95 games this year, but there’s a whole lot more that could go wrong, so I’ll take the under on the 93.5-win total.
Texas Rangers over 85.5 wins (-105)
PECOTA Projection: 90 wins
FanGraphs Projection: 85 wins
The Rangers are coming off a disappointing 78-win campaign, but they do have the potential to be one of the best teams in the AL this season because of their intriguing upside.
Jacob deGrom, who has started just 35 games over the last four seasons due to injuries, finally appears healthy and ready to contribute. Now entering his age-37 year, there are questions surrounding whether or not the righty can return to his elite form. But if he can to some extent, the Rangers will have a true ace to anchor their veteran rotation that already boasts Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, and Jon Gray. There are some young arms coming, too, like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who could also effectively eat some innings.
The real upside with the Rangers, though, is with their position players. They added Pederson and Jake Burger to the mix this winter. Both players can hit for power and should complement a plethora of veterans looking for bounce-back seasons, like Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien. Youngsters Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter also hold tremendous upside, and if they can prove to be effective everyday big-leaguers, the Rangers could have one of the best lineups in the AL.
PECOTA’s projections are very high on the Rangers this season, pegging them at an estimated 90 wins, well above their season win total at bet365.
