Can you believe it’s already All-Star weekend in Major League Baseball?
The summer is flying by, and although there isn’t any game action for bettors to wager on Monday, the Home Run Derby is one of the most fun events to throw a few bucks down on and enjoy the show.
This year’s event is being held at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The ballpark has a home fun park factor of 116, according to Baseball Savant, which puts it fourth on the MLB list of most homer-happy venues. That means spectators and bettors should see a landslide of balls leaving the park on Monday night.
Defending champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was named an All-Star this year, but we won’t be back to defend his title as Home Run Derby king. However, the field is stacked, with two-time derby winner Pete Alonso listed as the favourite at most online sportsbooks. Marcell Ozuna, Adolis Garcia, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, and Alec Bohm will round out the eight-man field.
| Participant | bet365 Odds | NorthStar Bets Odds | Sports Interaction Odds |
| Pete Alonso | +300 | +300 | +310 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +375 | +450 | +375 |
| Adolis Garcia | +450 | +450 | +500 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +475 | +400 | +450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +500 | +400 | +500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +1000 | +900 | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1200 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Alec Bohm | +1600 | +1500 | +1600 |
Rules changes
Bettors should be aware that the format has changed for this year’s competition.
MLB has implemented a revised clock-based format, which will give hitters either 40 pitches or until three minutes pass in the first two rounds to hit as many home runs as possible. Finalists will have just 27 pitches or until two minutes pass in the final round. Bonus time will still be issued like in years past, but this year competitors will be able to keep swinging until they make three outs (it’s considered an out if the player makes contact and the ball doesn’t leave the park) during the bonus period. Each competitor still has a 45-second timeout to use in each round.
Also new this year, the eight-man field won’t be seeded in the first round. The four hitters with the most home runs will be reseeded for the semifinal round based on how many they hit in the opening round, though, as the format shifts back to a head-to-head format for the remainder of the competition. If there’s a tie in the first round, the player who hits the longest homer in the round will advance.
Pete Alonso to win Home Run Derby
Betting insights
BetMGM released some interesting betting insights Monday morning regarding the derby. Henderson has the highest ticket number at 21%, but 29.2% of the handle is on Alonso at the sportsbook.
Witt Jr. opened with +625 odds at BetMGM, but he’s been bet down to +500 by the morning of the event. Henderson has also moved from +575 to +450.
CSB’s best Home Run Derby bets
- Alonso will be making his fifth straight derby appearance, and he has a wealth of experience in the event over the other competitors. He’s also still chasing Ken Griffey Jr.’s record of winning the derby three times, so motivation will be high to etch his name into the record books. Nobody takes the derby more seriously than the Polar Bear, so it’s really hard to bet against the favourite here. This year’s format also removes the chance of a first-round head-to-head upset. With the sheer volume of home runs being the only thing that matters early in the competition, Alonso’s chances of cracking the top four are extremely favourable.
- If you’re looking for a longshot, target Jose Ramirez (+1200 at bet365). Cleveland’s third baseman is one of only three players (Alonso and Garcia are the others) to have previously competed in this event. He was edged 18-17 by Juan Soto in the opening round back in 2022, but he was forced to hit from the right side due to a nagging thumb injury. The switch-hitter is more powerful from his left side, having mashed 165 of his 239 home runs (69%) while hitting left-handed. The park dimensions also slightly favour left-handed hitters (326 feet down right field line compared to 329 down the left field line).
