The 2024 U.S. presidential race is unfolding with intense scrutiny, with election betting odds indicating a very tight contest between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are crucial, as both presidential polls suggest a narrow margin.
Top U.S. election predictions and current Trump odds, which indicate a nearly 66% implied probability of winning, underscore the pivotal role of absentee ballots from U.S. expatriates in Canada. This traditionally Democratic voting bloc could play a decisive role in influencing the election’s outcome, highlighting the significant impact of voters living in Canada.
How Canada Could Have Impact On US Election Odds
Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada, recently told Global News that American expatriates in Canada could significantly impact the election odds and results in what may be the tightest election in modern history.
With polling data from FiveThirtyEight indicating a neck-and-neck race, particularly in key swing states swing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the absentee ballots from U.S. citizens residing in Canada are poised to be a decisive factor. These states, where the electoral margins are often razor-thin, could see substantial influence from the approximately 73% increase in expatriate voter turnout achieved in 2020.
Canadian-American diplomats like Heyman have been encouraging Americans in Canada to ensure they are registered and to mail back their absentee ballots without delay. This effort builds on previous work carried out with groups like Democrats Abroad, which was crucial in swinging battleground states toward Joe Biden in the last election.
The stakes are high in 2024, with every vote carrying significant weight in an even tighter race than before. This focus on mobilizing key demographics, including expatriates, could be pivotal for the Harris campaign on Election Day.
Trump Odds On Favorite Despite Canada Leaning Harris
The implications of the U.S. election have significant international consequences, particularly for Canada. Canadian politicians have recently raised serious concerns about the potential repercussions of a second Trump presidency on global relations.
Trump’s first term was marked by policies that strained alliances, including threatening tariffs on foreign imports and adopting a transactional approach to NATO obligations, potentially increasing pressure on Canada.
Trump’s hesitance to support NATO allies who fall short of spending thresholds, coupled with his unclear stance on continuing U.S. support for Ukraine, present complex scenarios for Canada. If Trump is re-elected, Canada may need to significantly reassess its defense and foreign aid strategies. This would require a major recalibration in terms of national security and international diplomacy.
Despite these geopolitical concerns and the strategic mobilization of U.S. expatriates in Canada to influence the vote, Trump is still the favorite according to U.S. election odds. Presidential polls and election betting markets in Canada suggest a strong likelihood of his re-election, with Trump odds currently set at an implied probability of 66%.
U.S. presidential odds and U.S. election predictions both indicate that Trump holds a significant advantage. This scenario poses a critical decision for Canada: to maintain ‘business as usual’ or prepare for a potentially less cooperative U.S. administration.
Donald Trump to Win 2024 U.S. Election
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Bet on U.S. Election Odds in Canada
While American expatriates in Canada are being encouraged to cast their votes on next week’s U.S. election, Canadians can get in on the action by wagering on spectacle from the sidelines. Canadians can place bets on various aspects of the U.S. election, from predicting the overall winner to more specialized propositions such as the popular vote, state-by-state results, and the margin of victory in the Electoral College.
Sign up with the best sportsbooks in Canada, and place your bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election today. Meanwhile, be sure to keep it locked to CanadaSportsBetting for the most up-to-date election betting news available.
