After 21 weeks of regular-season play and two additional weeks of playoff action, the stage is now set for the 111th CFL Grey Cup in British Columbia.
The Toronto Argonauts will be sizable underdogs when they clash with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the CFL season finale on Sunday evening. Most online sportsbooks have the Blue Bombers as 9.5-point favourites as of Wednesday morning, and that spread will likely push into double digits as the weekend approaches.
Bet on Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers
Winnipeg will be making its fifth straight Grey Cup appearance, while the Argonauts will be returning to the big game for the first time since stunning the Bombers with a 24-23 victory in the 2022 Grey Cup.
Let’s take a closer look at the game odds for the 111th Grey Cup courtesy of bet365:
| Argonauts moneyline odds | +350 |
| Blue Bombers moneyline odds | -450 |
| Spread odds | Blue Bombers -9 (-110), Argos +9 (-110) |
| Over/under odds | Over 49 points (-110), under 49 points (-110) |
| Date/Time | Nov. 17, 6 p.m. ET |
About the Argos (Regular season: 10-8 SU, 9-9 ATS, 12-6 o/u)
The Argos pulled off a 30-28 win over the Montreal Alouettes in last week’s Eastern Final, but starting quarterback Chad Kelly broke his ankle in he process and will be out for up to nine months. That means veteran Nick Arbuckle will be Toronto’s starting quarterback in the Grey Cup, a major reason why the spread is so lopsided in favour of the Blue Bombers.
However, bettors shouldn’t write Toronto completely off just yet. The Argos went a respectable 5-4 while Kelly was sidelined due to a suspension to start the season, and they pulled off a 16-14 home overtime win over the Bombers back in Week 8. Arbuckle wasn’t very impressive in that contest, completing 12 of his 22 passes for only 87 yards, but it was enough to get the job done in an ugly game. The 31-year-old has completed 65 of his 100 passes for 799 yards and four touchdowns while being intercepted three times this season. However, he doesn’t boast the ability to scramble out of the pocket like Kelly does, so Winnipeg’s pass rushers will be licking their lips on Sunday.
Another plus for the Argos is that head coach Ryan Dinwiddie can directly relate to this exact injury scenario. Dinwiddie was forced to make an emergency start in the 2007 Grey Cup for the Blue Bombers after starting quarterback Kevin Glenn broke his arm in the East Final. He choked, throwing three interceptions in a 23-19 loss to Saskatchewan, but he should be able to draw from that experience to help get Arbuckle ready for the biggest game of his life. Arbuckle won the 2018 Grey Cup as a member of the Calgary Stampeders, but he watched from the sidelines as the backup quarterback while Bo Levi Mitchell led the side to victory.
Expect Toronto to rely more heavily on its running attack, which ranked second in the league with an average of 121.3 rushing yards per game. Ka’Deem Carey led the way with 1,060 rushing yards during the regular season and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
It should be noted that Toronto also scored a 14-11 victory over Winnipeg in Week 19 to sweep the season series.
About the Blue Bombers (Regular season: 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS, 4-14 o/u)
After a slow start, the Blue Bombers have rolled to wins in 10 of their last 11 games, covering the spread eight times during that span. This team is firing on all cylinders right now, with their best players rising to the occasion last week in the Western Final. Top receiver Kenny Lawler caught three touchdown passes from Zach Collaros for 177 yards, and lead back Brady Oliveira ran the ball 20 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. Collaros was nearly flawless, completing 19 of his 26 passing attempts for 301 yards and four touchdowns.
Defensively, this team is also a juggernaut, holding the opposition to a league-low 20.3 points per game during the regular season. Additionally, the Bombers allowed just 234.8 yards per game through the air, the best mark in the league.
Cornerback Tyrell Ford finished second in the league in interceptions (seven) and knockdowns (12). He also led the league in forced incompletions (18) and finished the year with the highest coverage grade (92.1), according to Pro Football Focus.
If Winnipeg’s defence does have a slight weakness, it’s against the run. The Bombers allowed the opposition to pile up 104.2 yards per game on the ground (sixth in the CFL) while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Best bet
- Game total under 50.5 points (-110) @ BetRivers. These teams played well under their posted totals in both regular season meetings, combining to score just 55 points across the two contests. Both teams should play even tighter with the Grey Cup on the line, and it’s going to be awfully difficult for Toronto to move the ball with Arbuckle at the helm. Winnipeg will look to dominate time of possession with Oliveira on the ground and rely less on its potent passing attack, which should also help keep scoring down.
