Week 8 in the CFL was definitely one we couldn’t have predicted worse. Unfortunately, our picks went 0-4, and none really had a chance of winning. As one of the haters said, “That’s what you get for tryna be cute.” Facts, Captain. Preach…
Nah, that’s a whole load of BS. Right reads, bad outcome. Time to get off the friggin’ cigarettes.
But before that, let’s recap last week’s action:
The Montreal Alouettes and Saskatchewan Roughriders played an interesting game overall. Both teams combined to score 36 points but could’ve easily cashed the Over had either side converted on some of its chances to score touchdowns. Nevertheless, the Als’ defence was strong when it needed to be. Even though Montreal had to turn to its second-stringer, Davis Alexander, to get the offence going, it still found a way to win. The Roughriders kept it close, but quarterback Shea Patterson couldn’t seem to get going, especially when it mattered the most.
The Ottawa Redblacks absolutely destroyed the Calgary Stampeders. The game wasn’t even close. Stampeders quarterback Jake Maier was invisible, and the Stampeders’ defence didn’t help out much either. Redblacks quarterback Dru Brown dominated the air, passing for 325 yards. The Redblacks started hot and never looked back.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Toronto Argonauts had a defensive affair that was more boring to watch than flies mating. The Argos edged out a win, but boy, their offence sucked. Absolute snoozefest.
Edmonton Elks quarterback Tre Ford showed off his athleticism, but that wasn’t enough to end the team’s winless streak. Ti-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell had an outstanding game, throwing for over 300 yards and five touchdowns. Impressive stuff from a team that was winless before its Week 7 tilt against the Argos.
Week 9 features another four-game slate. Hopefully, they’ll be entertaining games to watch. Better yet, let’s hope things don’t go to hell in a handbasket when it comes to the betting selections.
Quickly, before we give our picks for the upcoming games, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 Odds | Sports Interaction Odds | NorthStar Bets Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | +225 | +250 | +200 |
| BC Lions | +225 | +225 | +275 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +375 | +340 | +400 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +450 | +625 | +650 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +1500 | +1200 | +1700 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +4000 | +8000 | +5000 |
| Edmonton Elks | +20000 | +15000 | +20000 |
BC Lions @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers – August 1
Best moneyline odds: Lions -175 @ Sports Interaction, Blue Bombers +150 @ Betway
Best spread odds: Lions -3.5 (-110 @ bet365), Blue Bombers +3.5 (-105 @ Betway)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 50.5 points (-110 @ BetMGM)
The BC Lions are arguably one of the best teams in the CFL. The Lions do a little bit of everything well. Winnipeg has had an underwhelming season, but based on the eye test from last week, the Blue Bombers’ defence looked capable of keeping opposing offences in check. Mind you, the Blue Bombers played an Argos offence that doesn’t have an established quarterback and is throwing darts at the wall to see what sticks. That said, the Blue Bombers secondary showed up. The Blue Bombers’ D-line pressured the Argos’ O-line all night long. There were good signs.
Mind you, we don’t think this will continue against the BC Lions. If Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. is on his game, the Lions should be able to control the game’s pace. Adams Jr. can also throw the ball and run it, which might pose some problems for the Blue Bombers’ defence, which has had issues handling dynamic threats in the past.
We’re still waiting for the day that the Blue Bombers’ offence breaks out. Technically, it will have a tough time against the Lions’ defence, but Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros has to show up at some point. There’s a good chance that the Lions come out sluggish. We think the Blue Bombers should be able to capitalize—at least enough to help us cash the Over.
Pick: Give us the Over 49.5 (-110 @ bet365). It might not be the greatest pick on paper, but if it was going to be an Under, why not set the market with 46.5? With our luck, both teams combine for 30 points, but hey, it could be a 37-30 type of game. Who knows?
Montreal Alouettes @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – August 2
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -170 @ Betway, Tiger-Cats +150 @ bet365
Best spread odds: Alouettes -3.5 (-105) @ Betway), Tiger-Cats +3.5 (-110 @ 888sport)
Best over/under odds: Over 47.5 points (-111 @ 888sport), Under 50.5 (-110 @ BetMGM)
The Montreal Alouettes losing Cody Fajardo felt like it was going to be one of those backbreaking injuries that totally plague a team’s progress. Y’know, maybe that wasn’t the case. The Als boast one of the CFL’s top defences. The Roughriders couldn’t seem to get much going at all. Even with a bad start from Caleb Evans and the third-stringer coming in, the Als pulled off the win.
We’re not sure if Montreal will be able to keep on rolling with its QB1 situation so uncertain, although Fajardo did return to practice this week in a limited fashion. That said, we highly doubt that Ti-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell will be able to replicate his Week 8 game against this Alouettes defence.
Honestly, the first five minutes or so will give us an idea of where this game is going. Nevertheless, with a noticeable gap between the best Over and Under totals, we have a chance to try to “middle” the game. There’s really only a chance to catch a two-point middle as it sits. That said, if you have the stomach for it, you could take the Under 50.5 points pregame. Hope the game starts off slow. Look to get the Over around 39.5 points at halftime. At the very least, if you get the proper setup, you only lose the juice. If you “middle” the game, you win both your Over and Under bets, essentially going 2-0.
Pick: Give us the Under 50.5 (-110 @ BetMGM). We’ll ride with that and if we can get the Over at 39.5 points or better during halftime, we’ll take a chance at “middling” the game and going 2-0. You could also take the pregame Over 47.5 points (-111 @ 888sport) and the Under 50.5. The only issue is that you have a three-point gap (48, 49, 50) where both bets win. Waiting for a better number at halftime could give you more of a gap. Remember, the keyword is: COULD.
Bet on Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats
Edmonton Elks @ Saskatchewan Roughriders – August 3
Best moneyline odds: Elks +205 @ bet365, Roughriders -225 @ Betway
Best spread odds: Elks +5.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction), Roughriders -5.5 (-110 @ bet365)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-115 @ Sports Interaction), Under 51.5 (-111 @ 888sport)
Right off the bat, the first question that comes to our mind is why the oddsmakers are only making the Roughriders -5.5 favourites against the WORST TEAM IN THE CFL. Isn’t that strange? Of course, that line is going to get pushed up big time by Saturday, but c’mon, that’s too low if we’re handicapping purely on stats alone.
That said, throughout the season, it feels like the books are trying to get money on shorter-priced favourites like the Roughriders, knowing that dogs like the Elks will at least cover the spread. Of course, this is speculative in nature. Plus, the Roughriders’ offence didn’t look great over the past month, so maybe that’s being factored into the price.
Still, it gets you wondering what the play is here. We’re eyeing the Elks’ point spread. By all means, the Roughriders should annihilate the Elks, but weird stuff seems to happen with spreads like the one we see in this game. We originally had the Roughriders priced closer to -7. We could be getting value on the Roughriders, but we’re not sold.
Pick: Give us Elks +5.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction). However, as the line goes up with money coming in on the Roughriders, you might be able to snag a better price come closer to game time.
Toronto Argonauts @ Calgary Stampeders – August 4
Best moneyline odds: Argonauts +110 @ Sports Interaction, Stampeders -125 @ Betway
Best spread odds: +2.5 (-115 @ BetMGM), Stampeders -1.5 (-110 @ bet365)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 51.5 points (-115 @ BetMGM)
Okay, let’s be real; these two teams sucked last week. The Argos were bailed out by their defence and the fact that they played a dog-water team in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who couldn’t score a touchdown even if it was on the defensive equivalent of Stifler’s Mom. The Stampeders were the ones getting run over by the Ottawa Redblacks, which was a bit underwhelming, to say the least. That game should’ve been a hell of a lot better.
Both these teams are eager to forget about last week. Both teams have to show up this week. Not to mention, both teams have the tools to put up points on offence. We definitely think the Argonauts should see a better offensive showing. There’s no way Argos head coach Ryan Dinwiddie would let Week 8’s offensive performance happen again. We can’t see Calgary only scoring six points. We’re projecting at least 24 points. If the Argos can keep up the pace, which is a bit of an ask, we should see a game north of 50 points combined.
Look, we get it; the Argos have a good defence that SHOULD be able to keep Calgary in check. The Stamps’ defence SHOULD be able to handle what Toronto throws at it. That said, the total seems kind of high for a game that could be a defensive affair. Like last week, we’re going to take a chance at the Over.
We know it’s a bold move, but it should pay off—or cause us another aneurysm. You be the judge!
Pick: Give us the Over 49.5 points (-110 @ bet365).
