Lord have mercy; Week 7 of the CFL’s regular season delivered banger after banger in the back half of its four-game bonanza. The Toronto Argonauts looked down and out several times in their game against the rival Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but as the thriller edged towards its conclusion, bettors who got the Ti-Cats at the closing line of +3.5 were holding on for dear life. Of course, in the end, like most of Toronto’s teams these days, the Argonauts fell just shy of the marker.
The British Columbia Lions and the Calgary Stampeders had an even more exciting teeter-totter game. It was more tightly contested than two heavyweights trying to get the last slice of pizza.
No BS: These are the tilts we live for as CFL fans unless you had money on the Argos and Lions. Nevertheless, sign us up if it’s interesting from start to finish. Any bettor who doesn’t appreciate a good sweat makes us wonder if they really enjoy the football betting grind.
Speaking of the grind, going into Week 8, all four games will be must-see TV. The Montreal Alouettes will have to fend off the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Thursday night, and the Stampeders and Ottawa Redblacks will go blow-for-blow on Friday. Saturday evening brings an intriguing showdown between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Argonauts. We finish the week with a matchup between the worst teams in the league, the Tiger-Cats and the Edmonton Elks.
Where do our picks lie? Will we eat chalk or back the dog? Find out now!
Quickly, before that, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Sports Interaction | NorthStar Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC Lions | +230 | +225 | +200 |
| Montreal Alouettes | +240 | +250 | +275 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +325 | +340 | +350 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +900 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +1600 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +6600 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Edmonton Elks | +15000 | +15000 | +12500 |
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Montreal Alouettes – July 25
Best moneyline odds: Roughriders +145 @ Sports Interaction, Alouettes -159 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Roughriders +3.5 (-115 @ TonyBet), Alouettes -2.5 (-120 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 46.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 47 points (-111 @ Pinnacle)
The East Division-leading Montreal Alouettes are coming off a much-needed bye weekend, especially after the 37-16 loss the Als suffered at the hands of the Argos in Week 6. To be honest, the Als sucked. The secondary was trash. The OL couldn’t block a beach ball. It was a disaster. Credit where credit is due; the Argos came in with a solid game plan and controlled the contest start-to-finish.
Nevertheless, in Week 7, the Roughriders didn’t look too hot themselves. Let’s be honest with ourselves: The Blue Bombers aren’t the juggernaut team of years past. Winnipeg’s defence isn’t even close to being as good as it once was. Saskatchewan only scored 19 points and won by 10 points, which is a bit underwhelming, even if the Roughriders covered the spread. We would’ve expected a number closer to the 30s from the ‘Riders.
That said, what’s in the past is in the past; we expect both teams to get back to scoring some points on Thursday. After all, the Als average the most offensive points per game through seven weeks with 29.2. The Roughriders aren’t too far behind with 25.7. These offences can light defences up like Christmas trees when the game plans are drawn to perfection. Roughriders quarterback Shea Patterson is due for a 350+ passing yards game, and we anticipate Caleb Evans, who will be under centre after first-string quarterback Cody Fajardo was placed on the six-game injured list, will be on a mission to punish the opps’ defence.
Add in the fact that we’re seeing a bunch of sucker money hitting the Under with impunity. Yet, the lines haven’t moved much of this writing. We’re feeling like the sky is the limit. Those defences are going to be having a long night.
Pick: Put us in for the Over 46.5 points (-110 @ bet365).
Calgary Stampeders @ Ottawa Redblacks – July 26
Best moneyline odds: Stampeders -110 @ bet365, Redblacks +105 @ Northstar Bets
Best spread odds: Stampeders -0.5 (-120 @ Bet99), Redblacks +1.5 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
Best over/under odds: Over 51.5 points (-103 @ Proline+), Under 51.5 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
This matchup is a bit of an odd one when you’re looking at it from a sharp bettor’s perspective. The Redblacks are coming off two decent victories over the Edmonton Elks. In both games, the Redblacks were heavily backed by the casual bettors. Yet, in both games, sharp money faded Ottawa. By the looks of it, the sharp fading isn’t going to stop here. We could see a minimal “Pros vs. Joes” angle where the professional bettors will bet re-upping on the Stampeders after Calgary upset the BC Lions last week (covering the spread in the process), while the public bettors keep backing the Redblacks.
The trouble we have with mindlessly following the sharps here is that they could be angling for a “head fake,” where they get the public money to chase what they’re doing. In this case, the sharps are betting early money on Calgary, but if a good enough line pops up on the Redblacks, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them jump ship and hammer the Redblacks when the betting limits go up. Nevertheless, watch how fast the bookmakers readjust the lines if this turns out to be the case.
Realistically speaking, the Redblacks should be at least two-point favourites in our book, especially if Ottawa is at home. To us, the sharps are picking up on that fishy line. Based on how the public has been betting so far this season, it makes sense that their money will hit Ottawa on both the moneyline and the spread, especially with the + in front of some of those odds. If the sharps follow through with late money on the Stamps, come Friday afternoon when the limits go higher at particular global sportsbooks, this has “Pros vs. Joes” written all over it.
If the lines stay the same, even if public money hammers the Redblacks late (30 minutes before kickoff), that’s an instant tell for keen observers that the wiseguys are on the other side.
Pick: Give us the Calgary Stampeders -110 ML @ bet365. As far as we’re concerned, this is an even matchup. We’re not scared to play the Stamps at pick‘em odds.
Bet on Stampeders vs. Redblacks
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Toronto Argonauts – July 27
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers +100 @ Caesars Sportsbook, Argonauts -110 @ FanDuel
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers +1 (-110 @ Sports Interaction), Argonauts +1.5 (-128 @ FanDuel)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-102 @ Pinnacle), Under 50.5 (-118 @ Proline+)
The Argonauts had a rough game in Week 7 against the Ti-Cats. Interceptions, defensive mistakes, and boneheaded play-calling killed Toronto. That 27-24 score in favour of Hamilton isn’t indicative of the atrocious game the Argos played in the first half. Argos head coach Ryan Dinwiddie must’ve had something to say at halftime because the Double Blue quickly showed onlookers what the team is capable of when it’s primed and ready to go.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers still have a good quarterback in Zach Collaros, who can answer the bell when he feels like it. It’s too bad his supporting cast is just running back Brady Oliveira and wide-out Nic Demski. Realistically, Toronto has the tools to calm down the Blue Bomber offence.
At least, that’s what the books want us to think.
Right now, the public is hitting the Under. On the other hand, we don’t expect the Blue Bomber offence to be held to nine points. Not to mention, we don’t think the Argos will relent on offence. Eventually, Cameron Dukes is going to light it up.
Saturday is the day.
Pick: Give us Over 49.5 points (-102 @ Pinnacle). Judging by the spread, this game will be back and forth… but could start slow. If the pregame total is too high, consider waiting for an in-game total of 39 points or better at halftime.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Edmonton Elks – July 28
Best moneyline odds: Tiger-Cats +156 @ Pinnacle, Elks -146 @ FanDuel
Best spread odds: Tiger-Cats +4.5 (-112 @ Proline+), Elks -2.5 (-115 @ FanDuel)
Best over/under odds: Over 52.5 points (-108 @ Pinnacle), Under 53.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers)
Trash vs. trash to finish the weekend, but if you’re betting on it, it’s just as good as any other game.
Nevertheless, it’s pretty apparent the books aren’t too impressed by the Ti-Cats’ winning performance against the Argos in Week 7. The Ti-Cats can be found at +4.5 on some sportsbooks. We’re willing to lean on the side that says this number is outright disrespectful, but the books are trying to tell us something: Edmonton is due to win and do so convincingly, like a $5,000 claiming horse dropping down in class.
Look, the Elks are a good team. Yes, Edmonton is 0-6, but there’s some upside. McLeod Bethel-Thompson is a serviceable QB who has the skills and tools to pick apart the Tiger-Cats’ pathetic excuse of a defence. Now, will MBT’s defence back him up? Probably not, but we think there’s enough firepower on the Elks’ offence to get one more score and break the drought.
Both teams are dogwater, and we won’t be betting much money. That said, we’re still pulling out some red bills for the occasion.
Pick: Give us the Elks -2.5 (-115 @ FanDuel), but if the Elks’ moneyline dips down to -135 or better, we’ll grab that instead. Either way, the Elks’ winless drought ends Sunday night.
