As we march towards the end of the 2024 CFL season, the games will get tighter. If you’ve already gazed at Week 16’s odds, you’ll see most games are “rigidly priced.” If we were to have seen these odds in Week 5 or Week 6, a lot of people would’ve been jumping on the favourites, but now, you really have to think.
For example, a month ago, everyone counted the Hamilton Tiger-Cats out. The Ticats’ defence was terrible, the output Hamilton was getting from its quarterbacks was “meh,” and the special teams had its problems, too. Now, Hamilton pulled off a 37-21 upset against the Ottawa Redblacks in Week 15. That’s after the Ticats embarrassed the Toronto Argonauts in the 2024 Labour Day Classic. The bookies have no choice but to respect Hamilton, even if it could be argued that the team is playing above its head and is due for some good ol’ regression.
We also find it interesting how the bookies have priced the Montreal Alouettes and Calgary Stampeders this week. For all intents and purposes, the Stampeders should’ve beaten the Als outright, but someway, somehow, the Stamps managed to make costly blunders when it mattered the most. Yet, instead of making Calgary somewhat of a sizeable ‘dog in its game against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, the Stamps can be had for +2.5 and +3 at some books. It really makes you think about what the bookies are trying to accomplish here.
Whatever happens regarding the betting outcomes, you will be treated to a great week of CFL action. Each game has the potential to go down to the wire. For us, that’s a good enough reason to dip out on the college football action and tune into the best and most underrated football league in North America.
That said, we know you didn’t come here to listen to a CFL>NFL/CFB sermon; you came here to get some betting tips.
Before we get to what the “tweakers” call the “good stuff,” here’s a quick peek at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| Montreal Alouettes | +220 | +200 | +200 |
| BC Lions | +320 | +300 | +250 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +340 | +310 | +350 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +500 | +575 | +750 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +500 | +575 | +900 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +1100 | +1050 | +1800 |
| Edmonton Elks | +2800 | +3300 | +6000 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +6600 | +7500 | +12500 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +10000 | +20000 | +15000 |
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts – Sept. 20
Best moneyline odds: Tiger-Cats +263 @ Pinnacle, Argonauts -270 @ TonyBet
Best spread odds: Tiger-Cats +6.5 (-102 @ BetRivers), Argonauts -6.5 (-111 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 53.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle), Under 53.5 points (-107 @ Pinnacle)
As we mentioned in the introduction, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have forced the bookies’ hand with how the team has played in its last two games. Without a doubt, the Ticats would be +9.5 to +11.5 ‘dogs if you take out those last couple of dominant victories. However, if you ask any rational and unbiased Ticats fan if they think their team can keep up the impressive play, the resounding answer would be “HELL TO THE NAW, BROTHER MAN!”
Let’s be real: The Ticats have a lot of fundamental flaws in their game. For example, despite what we’ve seen lately, the secondary has a hard time playing in man-to-man coverage. Relying on zone coverage is okay in certain spots, but teams will adjust and exploit the secondary over time. There’s a reason why Hamilton fired its defensive coordinator, Mark Washington, and replaced him with defensive guru/mastermind Chris Jones. The defence sucked. A huge part of the reason why the defence sucked was schematics, but it was also due to the fact that the Ticats lacked the personnel to execute a good defensive game plan.
If you looked at last week’s game, the Redblacks were able to see the flaws in Hamilton’s defence, but were unable to take advantage of it. We wouldn’t say that was because Hamilton played a good defensive game. It was because the Redblacks made a lot of mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. Ottawa cleans up those mistakes and get its own defence is order, the Redblacks probably win the game and cover the spread.
Now, don’t get us wrong, the Ticats’ offence is clicking, but the Argos’ defence has improved, especially in its last game against the BC Lions. Hamilton has been playing teams that have had below-average games. If Toronto plays its average game on both sides of the ball and the Ticats come back down to earth, you’ll quickly see why we took Toronto to win the Grey Cup. The Boatmen should have a strong showing.
Yes, we know, this is a pretty twerpy play. The public will probably be backing the Argonauts. That said, we don’t foresee the Argos getting hammered in the betting. It’ll probably be a 60/40 split in favour of Toronto, which is a lot better than an 80/20 split.
Pick: Give us the Argonauts -6.5 (-111 @ Pinnacle) point spread. The price is fair. We would’ve liked to see Toronto open closer to -7.5, but we understand why the books might be weary to put a line like that one out.
Bet on Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Calgary Stampeders – Sept. 20
Best moneyline odds: Roughriders -147 @ NorthStar Bets, Stampeders +136 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Roughriders -2.5 (-110 @ BetRivers), Stampeders +3 (-115 @ TonyBet)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 51 points (-106 @ Pinnacle)
The Calgary Stampeders can’t seem to catch a break. In last week’s tie against the Montreal Alouettes, there were a lot of self-inflicted mistakes that cost the Stamps the win. That said, from what everyone was saying before the game, the Stamps played pretty admirably. Yes, you would’ve liked to see Calgary win there but remember, the Als are probably the best team in the CFL right now. BC has been good, and having Nathan Rourke back at the helm is definitely a blessing, but the Als are the Dons in our books.
However, the Roughriders haven’t been playing the most sound games of late. In the team’s back-to-back contests against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, there were a lot of “wouldas, couldas, shouldas” occurrences in the slugfests. Unforgivable special teams mishaps, blitzing at the wrong time, getting caught pecker holding in man-to-man coverage, and terrible penalties taken at the worst possible times.
Sure, the Roughriders could clean up their act and absolutely kill the Stampeders, but at this point, it’s a do-or-die game for both teams. Yes, the Stampeders came off a crushing tie against the Als, but IF the Stamps’ coaching staff can keep the team in the right headspace, Calgary CAN beat Sasky. It’ll be one hell of a battle, but it can be done.
It’s also nice to see that the sharps are feeling the same way. Although the public has been hitting the Roughriders hard, there has been some reverse line movement. Some books have moved the Stampeders from +3 ‘dogs to +2.5.
Pick: Give us the Stampeders +3 (-115 @ TonyBet) point spread. You could always look for something in-game if the pre-game spread is too low. There’s a good chance the Roughriders start strong, so you might be able to get the Stamps at +7.5 or better at halftime. No matter what you end up doing, we strongly believe the Stamps are the play in this spot.
Montreal Alouettes @ Ottawa Redblacks – Sept. 21
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -143 @ BetRivers, Redblacks +120 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Alouettes -2.5 (-110 @ Betway), Redblacks +3 (-119 @ TonyBet)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ Proline+), Under 50 points (-110 @ Pinnacle)
We’re not going to write a book on this game. Here’s why:
The Montreal Alouettes should be opening at -5.5 on the road. Ottawa is a decent team that commands respect from bookmakers. Nevertheless, the Redblacks aren’t THAT GOOD. With that being said, the line opened up quite short, which you know will have the public ready to back Montreal. After the Als played a down game against the lowly Stampeders, the public is going to Martingale this thing. Plus, Ottawa got embarrassed by Hamilton last week.
Although we know it’s scary, regardless of the outcome, the right play will be the Redblacks’ spread. You’ll probably see some sharp money hit Ottawa on Saturday, so it might be wise to grab the Redblacks’ +3 if it’s out there. That said, there’s also the chance it goes up, too. The fact that this game will take place on a college football Saturday will kill the volume of the bets on the CFL, which could limit or increase line movement. It’s really a roll of the dice waiting out a price.
Pick: Give us the Redblacks +3 (-119 @ TonyBet) point spread.
Bet on Alouettes vs. Redblacks
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks – Sept. 21
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers -162 @ Pinnacle, Elks +150 @ BetRivers
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers -3 (-106 @ Pinnacle), Elks +3.5 (-115 @ NorthStar Bets)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 50 points (-110 @ Pinnacle)
The Edmonton Elks have become the new “darlings” of the CFL. Everyone on God’s green Earth wants to drop some coin on Alberta’s best football team. Of course, we can understand why that’s so. The Elks’ defence has looked pretty good. McLeod Bethel-Thompson has been quarterbacking that offence exceptionally well, and the coaching has been a lot better. How could you not want to back a team that has figured it all out? Everybody loves a good redemption story because most suckers stuck in the monotonous drudgery of today’s 21st-century capitalist society want the same thing for themselves; to be liberated from its grasp and heralded into prosperity.
Cutting out the sappy BS for a second! We’re not betting on a product that’s scripted to put the babyface over and send the crowd home happy. This isn’t scripted, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers don’t mess around. The team has no problem heeling out and burying the babyface in its hometown, a very common thing to do back in the territory days.
The fact of the matter is that this is Edmonton’s biggest test so far. We don’t think the Elks are up to the task. Of course, if you do, the books are just begging you to back Edmonton by offering you +3.5 on a silver platter.
However, we’re not buying the hype and falling victim to betting emotionally. We’re seeing things in 8K. Suppose Edmonton wins by 20, whatever. Winnipeg has been and will always be the play in this spot.
Pick: Give us the Blue Bombers -3 (-106 @ Pinnacle) point spread.
