What the heck is happening in the CFL? After the BC Lions did the unthinkable and went into hibernation mode for God knows how long, Nathan Rourke comes to life by having back-to-back 300+ yard games, beating Calgary in Week 13, and crushing the East Division’s best team in Week 14, the Montreal Alouettes. Let’s not forget that Rourke threw three INTs against Montreal and STILL WON. We’re legitimately surprised by how well the Lions’ defence played against Montreal. That’s some impressive stuff.
From the good to the bad.
The Toronto Argonauts haven’t looked the greatest in the last couple of weeks. Once considered its biggest strength, the Argos’ defence has been playing rough. We’ve seen some lousy coverages, clumsy penalties, and everything in between. Of course, Argos QB Chad Kelly has been inconsistent, which doesn’t help matters much. Nevertheless, Toronto isn’t in a “must-win” spot this week, but the team could really use a W against the Lions. That would be an easy way to get the Boatmen in good graces with the fanbase after such an atrocious loss to the Ottawa Redblacks.
Unfortunately, the Calgary Stampeders and the Saskatchewan Roughriders couldn’t follow the Lions’ lead by breaking out of their slumps. If we’re being honest, both teams looked pretty shaky. Maybe it’s a mojo thing? Perhaps the game plans were “meh?” Whatever the case, things will need to change for both clubs quickly, especially with the Edmonton Elks now jockeying for a playoff spot.
In Week 14, the Stampeders will get a chance to get a significant victory by beating the Als at home in McMahon Stadium. If Calgary’s ever had a “must-win” game this season, it’s probably this one.
Speaking of getting back in the win column, it’s time for us to step up our game after having a dog water week touting worse than @BookItWithTrent.
Before we test our luck, here’s a quick peek at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| BC Lions | +220 | +200 | +200 |
| Montreal Alouettes | +230 | +230 | +250 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +360 | +355 | +400 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +450 | +500 | +650 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +900 | +850 | +1000 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +1200 | +1050 | +1800 |
| Edmonton Elks | +2800 | +3300 | +4000 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +7500 | +7500 | +8000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +10000 | +20000 | +15000 |
Toronto Argonauts @ BC Lions – September 13
Best moneyline odds: Argonauts +185 @ BetRivers, Lions -220 @ bet365
Best spread odds: Argonauts +4.5 (+100 @ NorthStar Bets), Lions -4.5 (-110 @ bet365)
Best over/under odds: Over 51.5 points (-110 @ Betway), Under 52.5 points (-110 @ bet365)
Lord have mercy. This game is challenging to bet on, even though some might say that “on paper,” it’s an easy play. How could you not bet on the BC Lions? The offence is firing on all cylinders. Nathan Rourke is getting reacquainted with the “Canadian style” of football. He’s still making some bad split-second reads, but something tells us that’ll clean itself up over time. Not to mention, BC’s defence has been spending less time on the field. Consequently, it has played way better. Maybe not perfect, but above average, which is great when the offence is clicking.
Whereas the Toronto Argonauts have been “mid” on both sides of the ball. Like, let’s be honest, getting killed by the Ottawa Redblacks isn’t a good look for a team that we billed as a “Grey Cup dark horse” not too long ago. If the Argos play remotely close to last week’s performance, the Lions run straight through the blockade.
With all that being said, a big part of betting on football, no matter the league, is to avoid overreacting to the previous week’s results. In some cases, like in Florida State’s situation this college football season, such hardy reactions are warranted. That said, the law of averages plays out more often than not, and things even out.
In the case of the Argonauts, we think you’ll see a more balanced approach this week on both sides of the ball. Will Toronto win outright? The jury is out on that one. However, we do think this game stays close. According to our projections, this line should be closer to BC -3.5/-4, so you’re getting a bit of value. Nothing to write home about, but something is better than nothing.
Pick: Give us the Argonauts +4.5 (+100 @ NorthStar Bets) point spread.
Bet on Argos vs. Lions
Ottawa Redblacks @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – September 14
Best moneyline odds: Redblacks -200 @ Betway, Tiger-Cats +180 @ bet365
Best spread odds: Redblacks -4.5 (-110 @ bet365), Tiger-Cats +4.5 (-104 @ NorthStar Bets)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets), Under 51.5 points (-110 @ Betway)
Bruh, another tough one to pick.
Both teams are coming off good games against a familiar foe, the Toronto Argonauts. Something makes us wonder if we should count those wins as “key victories.” It could be a case of running into a good team at the right time when they’re not playing well.
Suppose The Boatmen played an average or above-average game to the team’s standards. In that case, the Ticats probably end up losing the Labour Day Classic, and Ottawa still probably gets the W (plus the cover), but only by a field goal.
Yes, the Ticats played the Blue Bombers tough in Week 12. Of course, the Redblacks made BC look bad, too, in Week 12 before the Lions opened a can of whoop-ass in Week 13 and dominated Ottawa.
Nevertheless, if we go further back into the season, Ottawa has by far been the better team, especially when healthy. In other words, the Redblacks’ -4.5 line makes a lot of sense. The books are factoring in Hamilton’s recent successes in the ATS category. If we were making the line, we wouldn’t put Ottawa higher than -5 or -5.5 because we could see people hammering the Ticats.
Looking at this game from the perspective of a casual CFL bettor (who’s more inclined to bet on the Ticats when an opportunity presents itself), getting four and a half at home after a big Labour Day Classic win appears to be a gift. Although we anticipate the “casual players” will forget about the CFL in favour of college football and the NFL, there should be enough money to tilt the market towards Hamilton. If early betting is to be of any indication, we could see a “Pros vs. Joes” angle with the pros backing Ottawa’s -4.5 spread.
Pick: Give us the Redblacks -4.5 (-110 @ bet365) point spread.
Montreal Alouettes @ Calgary Stampeders – September 14
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -225 @ Betway, Stampeders +210 @ BetRivers
Best spread odds: Alouettes -5.5 (-110 @ bet365), Stampeders +6.5 (-115 @ Betway)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-105 @ Betway), Under 49.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers)
Alright, this may be the stupidest bet we make of the entire CFL season, but we’re going to do it anyway and here’s why:
We’ve seen and heard of sharp bettors playing to the limit on Calgary’s +6.5 spread. The sharp buying has continued all the way down to Calgary +5.5. After the books brought the line there, we HAVEN’T seen or heard of any “sharp buybacks” on the Als’ -5.5 spread, even after the limits slightly increased Tuesday morning. Of course, this could change by kickoff on Saturday. Nevertheless. this tells us, as it stands, the sharps aren’t “headfaking.” For those who don’t know, a “head fake” is when the sharps play the max on the opposite side they want to play when the limits are low, so when the limits increase come kickoff, they can get a better spread/price on the opposite side when and IF the books adjust to the early action.
We know if we broke down this game the traditional way, there’s no way in hell that we won’t take the Alouettes, especially after the team’s rough loss to BC. As we’ve said in the past, though, EVERYONE is handicapping games the “traditional way.” If anything, this tells us most of the money will hit the Als hard. Usually, the primetime games tilt in the books’ favour at this time of the season. This means the heavily bet side doesn’t fare the greatest.
Does this mean Montreal will lose outright? That’s tough to tell, but we’d argue the chances of the Als covering are worse than some think.
As we literally just said, this could go down as the stupidest pick of the season. Despite every bone in our bodies telling us not to go through with this wager recommendation, we’re going to #TrustTheSystem.
Pick: Give us the Stampeders +6.5 (-115 @ Betway) point spread.
