As much as things change in the CFL, the more they stay the same. The BC Lions can’t seem to win a game, losing five in a row. The Toronto Argonauts are still finding new ways to win tight nail-biters. Yet another week passes, and Winnipeg gets propelled to a win with the referees’ help. Not to mention, no one can stop the freaking Montreal Alouettes from continuing their winning ways. However, the Edmonton Elks did manage to cover the spread against the Als and KILL THE FLIPPING OVER. For the love of all things good and holy, why couldn’t these blokes get two more “tuddies” to cash the Over? Whatever, be on that BS! IT’S NOT LIKE WE CARE!
Also, Als QB Cody Fajardo has to learn to read the secondary better. If the Elks can get INTS left and right on him, imagine what will happen when Montreal plays a team like the Argonauts that can capitalize on turnovers.
We digress…
Moving along, it’s Labour Day Weekend in North America. For many pigskin football fans, that means Week 1 of the college football season, but we want to remind our readers South of Heaven not to sleep on the CFL. We have a CFL pick that trumps anything college football offers, even the Texas A&M Aggies at -3, which is very attractive.
Before we get to that pick, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| Montreal Alouettes | +220 | +190 | +200 |
| BC Lions | +310 | +335 | +190 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +450 | +500 | +750 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +450 | +475 | +650 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +550 | +575 | +800 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +650 | +600 | +1000 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +4000 | +4000 | +4500 |
| Edmonton Elks | +6600 | +6000 | +7000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +30000 | +30000 | +20000 |
Ottawa Redblacks @ BC Lions – Aug. 31
Best moneyline odds: Redblacks +150 @ bet365, Lions -139 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Redblacks +3.5 (-115 @ Betway), Lions -2 (-102 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 51.5 points (-112 @ Proline+)
Even though the BC Lions walk through the valley of the shadow of death, the team should fear no evil as the Lions have Nathan Rourke calling the shots.
Look, we get it; Rourke has looked rough. The Redblacks made him look silly in Week 12. You gotta admit, Rourke had his moments, and that’s a good sign to see. It’s just a matter of putting everything together. When the Lions get rolling, everyone will jump back on the bandwagon. What makes bettors drift away from the Lions now is the team isn’t at “that point” yet.
We’d argue that the team regains some steam this weekend. Obviously, the oddsmakers feel that way, too, offering the Lions as high as -3.5. They simply don’t hand out prices so mouthwatering if they think Ottawa covers the spread easily, especially when they know the public is bound to hammer the Redblacks AGAIN. It would be stupid to expose themselves that way, even if they felt the amount of money being bet on the game would be insignificant due to the start of college football season.
This is why we feel strongly about the BC Lions’ chances this weekend. Heck, we ascertain it could be one of the best bets of the CFL season so far. It’s most certainly the best bet in all of football this weekend.
Pick: Give us the Lions -2 (-102 @ Pinnacle) spread, or if you’re willing to drink a bit of juice, the Lions -139 ML @ Pinnacle. The trip through the inferno is over. The journey to Paradiso begins. Lock it in.
Bet on Redblacks vs. Lions
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Saskatchewan Roughriders – Sept. 1
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers +124 @ Pinnacle, Roughriders -137 @ NorthStar Bets
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers +2.5 (-105 @ Betway), Roughriders -2 (-104 @ BetRivers)
Best over/under odds: Over 47.5 points (-108 @ Pinnacle), Under 47.5 (-103 @ Proline+)
On paper, we’d argue that this game could tilt either way. The Roughriders at home in a spot that feels like a must-win is hard to bet against. That said, Winnipeg keeps finding ways to overcome insurmountable obstacles, even without the help of the referees.
There’s no actual liability in this intriguing West Division tilt for the books. We’re forecasting that both teams should get bet pretty evenly. Maybe Winnipeg will take a bit of money on the spread because there are books like Betway offering the Blue Bombers at +2.5, but we’re not confident enough to say this will scare the books to drastically change the prices.
If we had the script, we could see the Roughriders winning 21-20 in this game. Both teams’ defences should come out to play and limit the aerial attacks. Points will then come at a premium.
The books set the total pretty low at 47.5. We could see the public taking a shot on the Over, as this is the trendy pick in tight games like these where both teams have good defences. It sounds counterintuitive, but that’s why most bookies like to call their clientele “suckers.”
Pick: Give us the Under 47.5 points (-103 @ Proline+).
Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – Sept. 2
Best moneyline odds: Argonauts -210 @ Betway, Tiger-Cats +203 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Argonauts -5 (-110 @ bet365), Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-109 @ BetRivers)
Best over/under odds: Over 52.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle), Under 52.5 (-105 @ Betway)
The Labour Day Classic is one hell of a game. It’s too bad that Hamilton FREAKING SUCKS…Hold that thought, Chief. That’s what the sportsbooks want you to think.
The Argonauts are ONLY -5!?!? My brother in Christ, that line feels like a God-given gift, easy money for the suckers. Yes, the oddsmakers are factoring in the Ticats’ home-field advantage, which probably shaves off a point or two. That said, there’s no reason why this line shouldn’t open at Toronto -7.5 or higher. Tim Hortons Field isn’t Beaver Stadium.
Yes, the Argos didn’t cover last week. Yes, the public is going to HAMMER Toronto in Steel Town. Seriously, think about it: Why would these brainiac oddsmakers put Toronto at such a soft price? It doesn’t make sense unless…
Are you catching on now?
We won’t BS you; we have absolutely no idea how Hamilton covers this spread. ZERO. The Argos should romp. But somehow, some way, crappy teams like Hamilton always find a way to show up in these highly viewed divisional showdowns.
No word of a lie; the bookies will need a Ticats cover and would lose their flipping minds if Hamilton won outright.
Pick: Give us Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-109 @ BetRivers) point spread.
Bet on Argos vs. Tiger-Cats
Edmonton Elks @ Calgary Stampeders – Sept. 2
Best moneyline odds: Elks +140 @ BetRivers, Stampeders -160 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Elks +3.5 (-115 @ Betway), Stampeders -3 (-106 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-125 @ BetRivers), Under 51.5 (-107 @ Pinnacle)
If you don’t take the Stampeders in this game, you’re doing it wrong.
Look, one of our most significant criticisms is that we don’t “handicap the games.” As in, we don’t go balls deep into the player stats and trends. The reason why we don’t do that, knuckleheads, is because EVERYONE IS F%*#@)+ DOING IT. The fact of the matter is knowing a lot about the teams doesn’t mean jack S%$# if you don’t know how to read the markets. If you focus solely on the trends, of course, you’re going to land on the same side as every other sucker in Canada.
When the books set their lines for the week, they know there’s some idiot out there who’s going to write on a high-traffic betting website that the Elks are offering value on the road because everything is clicking, add in reasons B, C, and D. LOOK AT THE TRENDS, BRO! The books laugh on the weeks that guy wins because they know that guy will get some “authority” in the field. People will tail him, and boom, when everything goes to s^%$, because it will, the books’ edge will win out. So, yeah. Don’t believe the hype.
Helpful tip: Trends, player performances, and the whole nine yards are beneficial to know, just not in the way you think. For example, Edmonton has become somewhat of a darling over the last month. People are starting to believe. Heck, the Elks made Montreal look like a mid-tier team in the Als’ own barn. HOW COULD YOU NOT WANT TO BET EDMONTON? It’s so easy at this point, especially against Calgary, a team that’s so inconsistent.
This is the exact reason why we like the Stampeders. Will the Stamps win and cover? There’s no guarantee that a specific thing will happen because, statistically speaking, there are so many different outcomes that our pea-sized brains can’t even begin to fathom them all. Nevertheless, we know plays like these will net us profit in the long term, even if we experience some bumps in the road during the short term.
Pick: Give us Stampeders -3 (-106 @ Pinnacle) point spread.
