If you’ve been staying off the vape and following the news, you’ll know that the global stock markets have been getting killed. “The Big 7 stocks” in the NASDAQ took massive hits. Some “prime stocks” lost up to 15-20% of their value, and the futures markets didn’t fare much better. The Japanese stock exchange, the Nikkei 225 index, had its worst crash since 1987. Stuff was legit scary and still is, but the point of the matter is that the Nikkei 225 rebounded by 10% on Monday and should see some stability once things iron themselves out. If The Federal Reserve hustles and does its job (BIG IF), things should rebound a bit on the NASDAQ in the coming days (there’s always a “buffering period” where the speculators adjust). You might be asking: What does this have to do with a Week 10 CFL betting preview?
Believe it or not, we here at Canada Sports Betting take pride in giving out the best picks to our readers. We also aim to teach our readers how to bet like professionals, even if some of them only wager on the CFL to “make things interesting.” That said, when we have a bad week at the shop, we know there’s a tendency to overreact and to make rash decisions, just like retail traders will “sell everything” during a market crash. Sometimes, the selloffs make sense. Other times, you don’t know. In those “other times” scenarios, you must “trust the system.” This is ever so true for sports betting because, despite what some might say, investing in the stock market as a retail trader and betting on sports are two sides of the same coin when it comes to the psychological aspect of the trades.
Case in point: Week 8 we got destroyed in the betting. 0-4, and no wager was close to winning. Nevertheless, our data said the plays we made were the right reads; we just didn’t get the desired outcomes. With that in mind, we approached Week 9 the same way, and because we did so, we rebounded, going 4-1 (WHO DOESN’T LOVE A GOOD MIDDLE?). Sometimes, the main hurdle for bettors is not to get sucked into the psychological aspect of the vice.
Make no mistake about it: Betting is 90% psychological. The books know that, which is why certain lines get set up the way they do. Oddsmakers know the bulk of bettors will react in certain ways to specific “bad lines,” especially after an undesirable outcome from the previous week. Week 10 is littered with these lines, and we’re going to help you make sense of them. Could these good reads equate to losses? Yes, in the short term, we might take some Ls “trusting the system,” but in the long run, we know it’ll yield positive results if we stand firm and “trust the process.”
Now, let’s get to those Week 10 picks, but before we do, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 Odds | Sports Interaction Odds | NorthStar Bets Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | +210 | +225 | +225 |
| BC Lions | +300 | +225 | +225 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +400 | +450 | +450 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +550 | +650 | +650 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +600 | +900 | +900 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +950 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +1600 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +5500 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Edmonton Elks | +18000 | +20000 | +20000 |
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Ottawa Redblacks – Aug. 8
Best moneyline odds: Roughriders +105 @ bet365, Redblacks -125 NorthStar Bets
Best spread odds: Roughriders +1.5 (-110 @ Betway), Redblacks -1.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction)
Best over/under odds: Over 48.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 48.5 points (-110 @ BetMGM)
We must admit, the linemakers know what they’re doing. The Ottawa Redblacks dominated the Calgary Stampeders in Week 8, winning 33-6 before getting a bye in Week 9. While the Redblacks were getting rested up and ready for their Week 10 game, the Saskatchewan Roughriders were dealing with the Edmonton Elks.
Of course, many of the casual bettors thought this game was a formality. The Roughriders would cover the single-digit spread and roll onto Week 10 in winning fashion. Elks quarterback Tre Ford and his comrades had a different idea in their minds, winning the game 42-31 and keeping the ‘Riders in check for most of the “shocking affair.” The final score isn’t entirely indicative of how the actual game went. The Elks OUTPLAYED Saskatchewan on both sides of the ball.
Honestly, who would’ve thought a winless Elks team would do that to the Roughriders? The books when they put out a -5.5 opening line for Saskatchewan. As we said last week, IF the Roughriders were to stand a strong chance of covering the spread, the line should’ve opened with at least -7 to -8.5. Anything under the key number of -7 and casual bettors would hammer the Roughriders. And that’s what they did. Nevertheless, we saw some reverse line movement because the sharp money hit the Elks’ spread, pushing it down to +4 on some sportsbooks. Long story short, the Roughriders crapped the bed, and now, in Week 10, those people will remember that and bet accordingly.
We wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Redblacks received strong backing from last week’s Roughrider bettors. They’ll probably think: If the Riders can’t beat the Elks, there’s no way Ottawa won’t dominate in Week 10.
Okay, valid point, but why are the Redblacks only favoured by -1.5? Why aren’t the Redblacks favoured by -3.5 or -4? We’ll tell you why: Ottawa shouldn’t even be the favourite. The books know they can drop that number, and people will take it gladly because -1.5 seems like a gift against an “overhyped team” that got killed by the worst team in the league.
The truth is that the Roughriders should be -1.5 favourites, or at the very least, this game should be a pick’em. Yet, the books know they can give themselves a bit of EV and hang a risky line on Sasky because most won’t pick up on it. When the sharps do, the line will get adjusted accordingly.
That’s why the ‘Riders are the play. Ottawa might walk all over Saskatchewan like the top guy in a wrestling promotion against a local “jabber.” Still, we wouldn’t be shocked if Saskatchewan cashes bet365’s early payout offer and goes up by 20 points at some point in the game.
Pick: Let’s split whatever we stake between the Roughriders +105 moneyline at bet365 and the ‘Riders +1.5 (-110 @ Betway) spread. This gives us some protection if the ‘Riders lose by one point, as we’ll break out even. If Saskatchewan wins outright, both our bets cash.
Calgary Stampeders @ Toronto Argonauts – Aug. 9
Best moneyline odds: Stampeders +110 @ Sports Interaction, Argonauts -110 @ BetRivers
Best spread odds: Stampeders +1.5 (-125 @ 888sport), Argonauts +1.5 (-125 @ Proline+)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 50.5 (-112 @ Proline+)
The Toronto Argonauts looked like a runaway winner in Week 9 against the Calgary Stampeders. Argos quarterback Cameron Dukes had a decent first half by his standards. He moved the ball around, read the defence well, and avoided risky plays. That might be because his O-Line gave him time to work in the pocket. That said, the Stampeders adjusted at halftime and dug out of a 16-point deficit to win 27-23. Not only did the Stamps cover the -2.5 to -3.5 spreads, but the last-minute field goal also cashed the Over 48.5-point total.
In the second half, the Argos had a hard time establishing anything. Stamps QB Jake Meier started to pick away at the secondary, and that was all she wrote. These teams are evenly matched on paper and it makes sense that the game was close at the end. For whatever reason, the Argos have a hard time keeping the pedal to the metal against certain teams.
Nevertheless, many bettors backed the Argos last week, both on the spread and on the moneyline. That probably won’t be the case this week. Unlike the line in the Roughriders-Redblacks game, the spread makes sense and we’d price this game out the same way. The books can’t give too much value to either side, but they can’t also underlay/overlay either side by trying to protect one side over the other. It’s a tightrope to walk.
If we’re being honest, though, the fact that most books are pricing the Argos at -1.5 gives us the confidence to back the double blue to get on track and pick up the W. Usually, the line would be the other way around if Calgary was the play. The easy play would be to take the Stamps’ spread and hope for the best. The smart play is to throw some coin at the Argos, as we know the markets will probably fade Toronto after last week’s letdown.
Pick: Give us the Argonauts +1.5 (-125 @ Proline+). It’ll probably be a nail-biter, but hopefully, it’s in our favour.
Bet on Stampeders vs. Argonauts
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Montreal Alouettes – Aug. 10
Best moneyline odds: Tiger-Cats +300 @ Betway, Alouettes -333 @ 888sport
Best spread odds: Tiger-Cats +8.5 (-125 @ Proline+), Alouettes -7.5 (-105 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 50.5 (-103 @ Proline+)
Out of all the game previews this week, this Ticats and Als one will require the least words. Here’s why: The lines are set perfectly for the matchup. You won’t see too many double-digit lines in the CFL, especially in this context.
The Tiger-Cats are dogwater but Hamilton does have the ability to keep games close enough. The Alouettes are hands down the better team, but it’s not like Montreal is miles better. It doesn’t mean the Als can’t kill the Ticats, but anything above -8.5 is a bit of a push in terms of the “EV game.”
Honestly, to us, it’s a toss-up. Technically, we think the Tiger-Cats can cover the +8.5 spread, but there’s also the possibility that Montreal romps Hamilton like in Week 9. This isn’t a game we’re jumping to bet on, but if we did, this might be one to “middle.” We expect the tone to be set early, but we could see Hamilton making things a bit more interesting in the second half.
Pick: Pregame, give us the Alouettes -7.5 (-105 @ BetMGM). To “middle” this game, we’d like to have at least a seven- to 14.5-point cushion and pray for some garbage points from Hamilton at the tail end of the second half. That means we’ll need to buy in at halftime with the Ticats +15.5 or better. If we could get Ticats +18.5, that would be a Godsend. Of course, the Ticats could start out strong and kill any chances of getting such a good number at halftime. In that case, ride and die with the pregame bet of Als -7.5.
BC Lions @ Edmonton Elks – Aug. 11
Best moneyline odds: Lions +101 @ Pinnacle, Elks -110 @ bet365
Best spread odds: Lions +2.5 (-132 @ Proline+), Elks -1 (-105 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 48.5 points (-118 @ Pinnacle), Under 49 (-110 @ Sports Interaction)
This is the toughest game of the week to pick a side on. Playing the Lions on the spread makes so much sense, but the fact that BC isn’t at least a -3.5 favourite on the road, even with its injury woes, worries us. Don’t get us wrong, we love value, but this is one of those spots where the public will make the “smart play” and back the Vernon Adam Jr.-less Lions to ‘bounce back” after a horrid ZERO-POINT offensive effort in Week 9 against the lowly Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
The Lions could and should win this game easily. Given the team’s situation, the Elks have had some decent performances recently. Are those good performances enough to beat BC on its worst day? Probably not, but the lovely thing about the CFL is that anything can happen. Elks QB Tre Ford is going to be a stable of the league for years to come, and even with his dogwater O-Line and offensive weapons, he can guide his team to a good performance—quite possibly a win. It’s icing on top of the cake that many people think BC will come alive this week and crush the Elks.
We’re not buying the hype either way, though, because there are too many technical nuances that go against picking one side. It looks, feels, and even smells like a trap. HOWEVER, we will “fuq wit” the total.
No matter who starts at QB for the Lions, they should be able to tear up Edmonton’s secondary like we tear up Taco Bell’s bathroom after splurging on the value menu. We won’t be shocked if Tre Ford and Co. feel confident after such a strong showing against the Roughriders last week. If the books felt like this game would be an Under, they would’ve priced the total more conservatively at 46.5 or 47 points. Yet, it opened at 50.5 and settled around 49 after the first injury report came out.
We know people in the betting public will overreact to Veron Adams Jr. being out and BC’s defence being on the “rebound,” so the Under might look like the “obvious bet.” That said, when casual players, who are statistically way more likely to play the Over, favour the Under, you know the Under holds little to no value.
Pick: Put us in for Over 48.5 points (-118 @ Pinnacle). The two teams will probably make you sweat it out, but we wager it’ll get over the hump (see what we did there).
