With the current state of Canadian politics, the events down south, and the court of public opinion, it’s an open and shut case why Justin Trudeau decided to dip earlier this year. Historically, Canadian politics have been a revolving door of exes—switching back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives, hoping one of them has magically improved. As fate would have it—or rather, the Canadian election odds would suggest—the Conservative Party is favoured to succeed the Liberals, with Pierre Poilievre’s chances of winning looking high. But there’s still hope for the Liberals with Mark Carney now at the helm as the newly elected Liberal party leader and current Prime Minister of Canada.
2025 Canada Election Odds
Although there is inherently a losing side to every election, you can win big—even if your party leader doesn’t—by betting on the next Canadian federal election. As a Canadian voter and bettor, you’re in a unique position to tip the 45th Canadian election odds—both with your ballot and bet slip.
| Canadian Political Party |  Election Odds |  Election Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | -225 | -275 |
| Liberal Party | +162 | +188 |
| NDP | +11,000 | +6600 |
| Bloc Québécois | +11,000 | +10,000 |
| Green Party | +60,000 | +20,000 |
| Peoples’ Party of Canada | +100,000 | +20,000 |
The Canadian election odds are as expected—the Conservative Party is leading the pack, the Liberal Party is playing catch-up, and the other parties, including the Bloc Québécois and NDP, are eatin’ dust (whatever’s behind dust is where you’ll find the People’s Party of Canada.)
Next Canadian Prime Minister Odds 🤝
Okay, before we get too carried away, let’s discuss the next Canadian Prime Minister odds. In Canada, the winning party determines the winning Prime Minister (except for the rare case in which the Prime Minister doesn’t win their seat–but that’s another story). Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has a clear lead in the odds, but with the 45th Canadian federal election still months away and with the announcement of the new Liberal Party leader, there’s time for a comeback.
Conservative Party Odds to Win
-225
Federal Election Polls vs. Betting Odds 📈
Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership race has already had a huge impact on the polls, but will it be enough for the Liberals to win the next federal election? As it stands, the Liberals sit between 1 and 5% behind the Conservatives in the latest Canadian federal election polls.
This stands in sharp contrast against polls earlier this year, and throughout 2024, where Trudeau’s discontinued popularity drove Conservative approval into the high 40%–and Liberal approval down to a low of 24%. If poll trends continue in the same upward direction for the Liberals, it could drive down the value of the Liberals election odds. In other words, if you plan to bet Liberal, now may be the best time to snag a good price. If you plan to bet Conservative, we recommend waiting for the price to drive up.
Liberal Party Odds to Win
+188
🔵 Conservative Party Favourite to Win
We all know we have more than two parties, right? Regardless, the Conservative Party has gained some serious traction with Canadian voters who are fed up with the current government and economy. Honestly, who wouldn’t be pissed when a loaf of bread costs more than the average streaming subscription? Pierre Poilievre’s political priorities appeal to people passionate about pinching pennies—or, you know, Poilievre’s stance on taxes and government spending are attractive to some voters.
Poilievre may be leading in the polls, but some of his moves have certainly raised eyebrows across the aisle from his support of the “Freedom Convoy” protests to voting against climate change bills. Still, when it comes to Canadian election betting, the Conservatives are the current favourite.
🔴 New Liberal Party Leader Closing the Gap
With a whopping 85.9% of the vote, Mark Carney was named the new Liberal Party leader and Canada’s Prime Minister on March 9, 2025. As a former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney was favoured for his experience in business and financial crisis management. Many believe that finance aficionado and Doctor of Economics Mark Carney may be Canada’s best bet to handle the Trump turmoil.
Mark Carney’s competition was blown out of the water, with runner-up Chrystia Freeland—former Deputy Prime Minister and ex-Finance Minister—receiving just 8% of the vote. Karina Gould and Frank Baylis each secured 3%, but they never stood a chance—unsurprising, given the Liberal Party leadership odds we covered leading up to the big announcement. Following Mark Carney’s landslide victory, we expect the polls (and the odds!) to fluctuate. The Liberals have already seen a significant bump in the polls, but the Conservatives are still the party to beat.
Other Candidates’ Election Odds 🟢🟠🟣
Canadian politics is a dogfight—with two wolves going at it and a bunch of puppies barking from the sidelines. The two top dogs may be the Liberals and Conservatives, but the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, is trailing close behind with +11,000 odds and a fountain of support from young Canadians.
Next in the food chain is somehow the Bloc Québécois with +11,000, led by Yves-François Blanchet. Rounding out the Canadian Election odds, the Green Party led by Elizabeth May has +60,000 odds, and the Peoples’ Party of Canada and its leader Maxime Bernier is sitting at +100,000 (big oof).
How To Bet On Canadian Election Odds
With the next Canadian federal election in the works, there’s no better time to dip your toes into the world of political betting. Here’s how to bet on Canadian election betting odds in five easy steps:
- Choose a betting site: Thankfully, finding the right betting site for you isn’t one in a million odds— and with our list of top Canadian betting sites and unbiased reviews, we guarantee you’ll find a suitable bookmaker. Assess what type of bettor you are and what each site offers before taking the plunge.
- Create an account: Setting up a sportsbook account is no sweat! Most Canadian betting sites follow similar sign-up procedures, starting with your personal information. Enter all personal information as it appears on your government-issued ID, as you will need to verify your account by either uploading your ID or through an automated identification verification system.
- Deposit funds: How you fund your bankroll is a serious consideration as each site accepts different payment methods, from e-transfer to Bitcoin. After locating the cashier page, enter your payment details and deposit amount, and click to confirm (Boom!).
- Compare election odds: There are many ways bettors can score a solid edge. Comparing the latest election odds from several sportsbooks is a no-brainer way to secure the best odds and increase your potential winnings. For example, if site A’s odds are +190 and site B’s odds are +200, your potential winning would be greater through site B thanks to this small difference in odds. After finding odds that pique your fancy, simply click on the bet/odds, enter your wager amount, and confirm to add your wager to your bet slip.
- Place your bet: If your wager is successful, your winnings will be automatically deposited to your bankroll for you to wager again or withdraw. Keep in mind, many sportsbooks allow users to set daily and monthly limits to prevent overspending.
Where to Bet on Canadian Election Odds
Without a doubt, Sports Interaction and bet365 are the best betting sites to bet on the next Canadian federal election, boasting superior odds and numerous political betting options. But let’s check out what each betting site has to offer for the upcoming Canadian election.
| Bookmaker | Offers Canadian Election Odds? | Sign-up Link |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Interaction | Yes – Most betting markets | Join Sports Interaction |
| bet365 | Yes – Best winning party odds | Join bet365 |
| BET99 | Yes – Several betting options | Join BET99 |
| Betway | Yes – Winning party only | Join Betway |
| 888sport | Yes – Most seats only | Join 888sport |
| BetVictor | Yes – Winning party only | Join BetVictor |
| BetMGM | Yes – Several prop bets | Join BetMGM |
When is the Next Canadian Election?
The next Canadian federal election is set to take place on October 20, 2025. However, the timing of the next election can fluctuate depending on political events. Thanks to Trudeau, Parliament is currently on pause until March 2025, which gives the current Canadian government some breathing room before any major decisions are made.
With increasing pressure, especially from Conservatives, a vote of non-confidence could trigger an earlier election. On the other hand, the Liberals might call for an early election to capitalize on the leadership change, re-establish momentum, and limit the Conservative Party’s campaign, as once the election begins, campaign spending is capped.
The odds are still out on the timing of the federal election, but rest assured we’ll update this section as soon as the top betting sites release their odds.
| Timeframe | Odds |
|---|---|
| October 20, 2025 | TBD |
| Spring 2025 | TBD |
| Summer 2025 | TBD |
| Fall 2025 | TBD |
| Winter 2025 | TBD |
How to Read Canada Election Odds
Reading election odds is simple: the lower the odds, the higher the chance of winning. Higher odds indicate the underdog. The “-” odds indicate how much you would need to wager to win $100, whereas “+” odds indicate how much you’d win with a $100.
Taking a peek at the current favourite, the Conservatives are sitting at -250, meaning to win $100 in profit, you would need to bet $250. However, with higher risk comes higher reward so with the Bloc Quebecois’ +11,000 odds, you would win $11,000 profit on a $100 stake.
When in doubt, you can use our odds calculator and converter!
Factors Influencing Canada Election Odds
There are a bunch of factors affecting the Canada federal election odds, from the court of public opinion and the polls to things that make the world not so great again. From shaky leadership to economic headaches, voters have plenty to consider before placing their bets (literally).
👋 Trudeau’s Resignation
Shortly after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced “[Canada] deserves a real choice in the next election” and revealed he would be stepping down, the Liberal Party saw an uptick in the polls and Canadian Election odds, both of which continued to rise in the following weeks.
The Liberal’s initial bump in popularity was likely due to the potential for a new leader rather than a flood of new supporters. Canadians could imagine how their ideal candidate would lead the country, and with an overwhelming percentage of the votes (85.9%), Mark Carney was elected the new Liberal Party leader. Following this announcement, we expect to see a big shift in the polls.
🔈 Public Opinion and Polls
For awhile, the Conservative Party was sprinting ahead in the polls with a commanding 40.3%, while the Liberals trailed behind with 30.8. Today, the two parties are neck and neck around 36% each. These numbers don’t just shape election odds—they also influence voters, with some backing a frontrunner and others strategically shifting their support to tip the scales.
Have you ever noticed how the Liberals (30.8%), NDP (14.4%), and Green Party (4.2%) share a lot of similar values? The same can be said regarding the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and Peoples’ Party of Canada. That’s great for ideological diversity—but not so great for winning a majority.
👬 Liberal Party Leadership Dynamics
Justin Trudeau’s announcement to step down as party leader is the best thing that’s happened to the Liberal Party since, well, Justin Trudeau. Since the Liberal leadership race began, the Liberal Party has seen a significant uptick in the polls. Jumping from 23.4% to 35% in the polls (since publishing this article), the Liberal Party is finally turning things around, and with a unifying leader (Mark Carney) at the wheel, there’s still hope for the Liberals in this upcoming federal election.
📈 Economic Concerns
Okay, time for everyone’s favourite topic—✨the economy✨. Let’s face it, most Gen Zers now view groceries as luxury items and the odds of us actually buying a home are about as likely as the Bloc Quebecois taking over—the economy is f*cked. With wallets getting thinner by the day, many Canadians are interested in the Conservatives’ “axe the tax” platform, leaning the Prime Minister election odds in Poilievre’s favour.
🦅 Donald Trump’s Recent Win in the USA
Trump’s return to the White House has the world on edge, and Canadian politicians are scrambling to figure out their next move. Navigating our relationship with our neighbours down south has become a key election issue and voters are left wondering which party can handle Trump, tariffs and look out for our own interests without making things worse.
Types of Canadian Federal Election Betting Markets
Betting sites like Sports Interaction and BET99 offer several ways to bet on the 45th Canadian federal election, from the next Prime Minister to when the federal election campaign will begin.
➡️ Overall Election Winner
Betting on the outright winner is always a fan favourite, whether in politics or traditional sports betting. With this bet, you can wager on the winning party, the next Prime Minister, or both, depending on what your betting site offers. But the most popular choice is betting on the winning party—after all, there may be plenty of candidates in the race, but only two parties are really in the running (unless you’re banking on the underdogs).
➡️ Election Date
As we near election season, many betting sites will offer more political betting markets, including when the election will take place. Sports Interaction has a range of odds, but for the actual election date, we’re SOL. Soon, bettors will be able to wager whether the election will stick to the schedule and remain on October 20, 2025, as the third Monday of October or if the election will be called early—or even delayed!
➡️ Official Opposition
Beyond betting on the winning party, betting sites will also offer odds on which party will form the official opposition—essentially, the silver medalists of the federal election (this might show up in betting sites as the party with the second most seats). The role of the official opposition is crucial in politics and is responsible for keeping the governing party in check, challenging policies, and presenting itself as the alternative government. With the Conservatives favoured to win, the battle for second place is heating up between the Liberals and the NDP.
Wrapping Up: Canada Election Betting Odds
Dearest fellow Canadians, with so much uncertainty in the world, we wish you luck in the coming months. May your wagers win and may we avoid becoming the 51st state 🙏.
The Canada 2025 election odds are in—but we’re not out of the woods yet! Do your research, be skeptical, and get out there on election day! For Canadian bettors, this election is a unique opportunity to tip the odds in your favour with your vote and make some money along the way! Check out our top betting sites and which political betting market each has to offer, and check back with us for all things betting!
2025 Canada Election Odds FAQs
The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, in accordance with the Canada Election Act, which states federal elections must be held on the third Monday of October. However, certain factors could delay or move up the election date from the dissolution of government, a vote of non-confidence, or exceptional circumstances.
The Conservatives still have a considerable lead in the polls, with the Canada Election odds favouring Pierre Poilievre as the next Prime Minister.
Election day must fall on the third Monday of October, with a few exceptions. A federal election campaign must last at least 37 days and no more than 51 days from the day it’s called.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading the Liberals, won the 44th Canadian federal election.
Mark Carney was named the new Liberal Party leader and current Prime Minister on March 9, 2025, beating out candidate Chrystia Freeland and the rest of the competition.
