Before the 2024 NCAA Tournament started, plenty of us had No. 1 seeds Connecticut and Purdue, and even No. 4 seed Alabama, to make it to the Final Four. Very few, however, saw No. 11-seeded North Carolina State getting this far. The Wolfpack were 200-to-1 longshots to win the national championship at that time, and needed their share of upsets to get here. But here we are: with the first four rounds of this year’s NCAA Tournament behind us, UConn, Purdue, Alabama, and NC State are the last teams standing.
So, which two teams will win their Final Four matchups at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, on Saturday and earn the right to play in the National Championship Game on Monday? If you’re planning to bet on the games, here are our expert betting nuggets to help you play smart on this year’s Final Four.
Bet on Purdue vs. NC State
PUR -9
NCST +9
(11) NC State vs. (1) Purdue – 6:09 p.m. ET
- Purdue had just a 2-8 record against the spread in its previous 10 games heading into the 2024 NCAA Tournament but the Boilermakers have covered the spread in all four of their games during March Madness, while NC State has assembled a 7-2 record against the spread in its nine postseason matchups, including a 3-1 record ATS during the NCAA Tournament.
- Purdue has covered the spread in 11 of the 21 games in which it has been favoured by nine or more points this season, while NC State has gone 12-6-1 against the spread this season when getting points as an underdog.
- Purdue has gone under the game total in three of its four NCAA Tournament games with the lone over taking place during a 39-point blowout against Utah State in the Round of 32, while NC State has also gone under the game total in three of its four March Madness games with the only over occurring during an overtime win against Oakland in the Round of 32.
- Purdue has averaged 83.5 points per game this season (eighth-highest in the nation) and 86 points per game during its last three NCAA Tournament games, while NC State has allowed opposing teams to score 72.0 points per game on average this season (156th in the country) but has held opponents to just 65.0 points per game during its last three NCAA Tournament matchups.
- Purdue has grabbed 40.8 rebounds per game this season (sixth-best in the nation), including grabbing about 42 rebounds per game during the NCAA Tournament and enjoying a +19 rebounding margin per game, while NC State has recorded an average of just 35.5 rebounds per game this year (135th in the country) and only held a slight +4 rebounding advantage against opponents in the NCAA Tournament.
- Purdue has shot 49.1% from the field this season (eighth-best in the nation), led by centre Zach Edey who has shot 62.4% from the field throughout the year (11th-best in the country), while NC State has let opponents shoot 43.4% from the field during the season (134th in the nation) but has held its last six opponents to shooting under 40% during six straight wins in the postseason.
- Purdue put together the second-highest three-point shooting percentage in the nation this season by shooting 40.6% from three, while NC State has held opponents to shooting 33.3% from three this season (141st in the country) and under 25% during its last three games in the NCAA Tournament.
- Purdue and NC State have played just once in the past five years with the Boilermakers beating the Wolfpack, 82-72, on Dec. 12, 2021 but failing to cover the 15-point spread as the betting favourite.
Final Four odds
| Team |  | | Team | Date/Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Purdue | -9 | 146 o/u | (11) NC State | April 6, 6:09 PM |
| (1) UConn | -11.5 | 160.5 o/u | (4) Alabama | April 6, 8:49 PM |
(4) Alabama vs. (1) Connecticut – 8:49 p.m. ET
- Connecticut has covered the spread in all four of its NCAA Tournament games thus far, winning by an average of almost 28 points in these matchups, while Alabama finished its regular season by going 1-6 against the spread before rebounding to cover the spread in its four NCAA Tournament matchups.
- Connecticut has gone 14-7 against the spread this season when favoured by double-digit points — including covering the spread in eight straight games in which the Huskies have been favoured by 10 or more points — while Alabama managed to cover just two of the six games in which the Crimson Tide were getting points as an underdog this year.
- Connecticut has gone under the game total in eight of its last 10 games, including going under in the Big East Tournament title game and its first four NCAA Tournament games, while Alabama has gone over the game total in eight of its last 10 games, including going over in each of its first four NCAA Tournament games.
- Connecticut has allowed opponents to shoot just 30.9% from the three-point line this season (28th-lowest in the nation) and make just 5.8 three-pointers per game (23rd-lowest in the country), while Alabama took 30.1 three-pointers per game this year (fourth-most in the nation) and made 11.2 threes per game (second-most in the country) while shooting 37.1% from three (21st overall).
- Connecticut has the 19th-highest-scoring offence in the country this season, averaging 81.4 points per game, and will be going up against an Alabama team that allowed 81.1 points per game this year, 15th-worst in the nation.
- Alabama has been able to overcome its below-average defence by averaging 90.6 points per game this season, best in the country, but the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Connecticut team that allowed opposing offences to score just 63.3 points per game this year, which was the sixth-lowest opponents’ PPG in the nation.
- Connecticut is just the third team since 1974 to be favoured by 11.5 or more points in the Final Four — Kentucky was favoured by 14 points against Syracuse in 1996, while Gonzaga was favoured by 14.5 points against UCLA in 2021 — with the previous two double-digit favourites winning their games outright but failing to cover their respective spreads.
- Connecticut and Alabama have matched up just once over the past five years with the Huskies knocking off the Crimson Tide, 82-67, on Nov. 25, 2022 and covering the 1.5-point spread as the betting underdog.
