Three teams qualified for the postseason out of the AL East Division a year ago, and oddsmakers believe the division will once again be overrepresented in October this year.
The New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays are all projected to post records above .500, making this the likely most competitive division in baseball once again.
Let’s take a closer look at the futures odds for the five teams in the AL East Division via bet365:
Other related division previews: AL Central – AL West – NL East – NL Central – NL West
New York Yankees
World Series odds: +1000
League odds: +450
Division odds: +155
Season win total: 93.5 (over +125, under -150)
To make playoffs: Yes (-280), No (+215)
Record last season: 82-80 (fourth in AL East – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: RHP Luis Severino, RHP Michael King, LHP Wandy Peralta, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Key additions: OF Juan Soto, OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Marcus Stroman, OF Trent Grisham, LHP Caleb Ferguson, LHP Victor Gonzalez
Season outlook: The Yankees made the biggest trade of the offseason when they acquired slugger Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in December for a package including promising right-hander Michael King. The 25-year-old will become a free agent after the 2024 season, but the Yankees are optimistic they can get an extension done with the three-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion.
Yes, the addition of Soto immediately launched the Yankees into the upper echelon of World Series contenders, but there are some glaring issues on the pitching staff. Ace Gerrit Cole will likely miss at least the first two months of the season with an elbow issue, and there’s no telling if the injury could nag on for the remainder of the season. Is a rotation consisting of Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes Jr., Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Clayton Beeter enough to get the job done? Probably not. But Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still available on the free agent market and either of them could help partially fill the void left by Cole. Will the Yankees extend their already bloated payroll (roughly $300 million) to improve the rotation? We’ll see.
Best bet: Soto (+550) or Aaron Judge (+500) to win AL MVP. These elite hitters are projected to hit back-to-back in the Yankees’ lineup and they could do some serious damage together. Judge has already proven that, when healthy, he can put together an MVP-worthy season as he did in 2022 when he hit 62 homers and drove in 131 runs. Soto, in a contract year, could also be motivated to put up historic offensive numbers in pursuit of a lucrative contract as a free agent this winter.
Juan Soto to win AL MVP
+550
Baltimore Orioles
World Series odds: +1200
League odds: +550
Division odds: +175
Season win total: 90.5 (over -130, under +100)
To make playoffs: Yes (-220), No (+170)
Record last season: 101-61 (first in AL East – lost in AL Division Series)
Key departures: 2B Adam Frazier, RHP Kyle Gibson, OF Aaron Hicks
Key additions: RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Corbin Burnes
Season outlook: What am I missing here? The Orioles surprisingly put up 101 wins last season to claim the division crown and they got even better this winter with the addition of 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. The right-hander gives the O’s a true ace at the top of the rotation, which was their only true weakness heading into the playoffs last year. However, oddsmakers have posted Baltimore’s season win total at a modest 90.5 and given the Yankees shorter division, league, and outright odds?
There’s no doubt the Orioles already boast one of the best young rosters in baseball, and they could get another boost from consensus top prospect Jackson Holliday, who could break spring camp with the big team and make some noise. And guess what? The Orioles have four more prospects ranked in the top 32 by MLB Pipeline, which means they have the resources to pull off a major trade for a World Series push if they’re in a good position to do so in July.
If you want to nitpick the roster, you could point your finger at veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who was brought in to replace the injured Felix Bautista. Kimbrel notched 23 saves and blew five opportunities for the Philadelphia Phillies last season, but he still posted an impressive 12.3 K/9 mark. If Kimbrel falls off in his age-35 season, there will be plenty of opportunities to pick up a viable closer via trade at some point in the season and the Orioles have the deep prospect pool to easily get a deal done.
Best bet: This team has an embarrassment of riches and should claim a second consecutive division crown. Take the Orioles at +175 to win the AL East and enjoy the show they’ll put on all season long.
Toronto Blue Jays
World Series odds: +1400
League odds: +650
Division odds: +350
Season win total: 87.5 (over -130, under +100)
To make playoffs: Yes (-160), No +(130)
Record last season: 89-73 (third in AL East – lost in wild-card round)
Key departures: 3B Matt Chapman, DH Brandon Belt, UTIL Whit Merrifield, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, RHP Jordan Hicks
Key additions: DH Justin Turner, RHP Yariel Rodriguez, IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 1B Joey Votto
Season outlook: It’s been a disappointing offseason for the Blue Jays, who took a huge swing and a miss on landing two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani in free agency. Many industry insiders reported the Jays as a finalist to land perhaps the most coveted free agent in MLB history, but ultimately Ohtani elected to join the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Perhaps the more frustrating part is that the Blue Jays seemingly didn’t have a Plan B this offseason. They reportedly offered Ohtani a contract of around $700 million, but they tightened the purse strings after striking out on the deal, only bringing in Justin Turner on a one-year, $13 million contract and infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year, $15 million pact. The Jays also signed Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez to a five-year, $32 million deal. It’s puzzling that the Jays didn’t retain the services of third baseman Matt Chapman, who signed with the San Francisco Giants for just three years and $54 million after holding out until March, despite an obvious need at third base.
The Blue Jays still have a strong pitching staff that could propel them to a playoff spot, and who knows? Maybe they find lightning in a bottle with the addition of Canadian Joey Votto.
Best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 33.5 home runs: -110. Just two years away from free agency, the Jays slugger showed up to spring camp in excellent shape and he’s vowed to have a rebound season after posting mediocre numbers (26 homers, 94 RBIs, .788 OPS) by his standards in 2023. Look for Vladdy to put up big power numbers this year and earn a potential long-term extension with Toronto as a result of his efforts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 33.5 home runs
-110
Tampa Bay Rays
World Series odds: +2200
League odds: +1100
Division odds: +700
Season win total: 84.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (+130), No (-160)
Record last season: 99-63 (second in AL East – lost in wild-card round)
Key departures: RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Manuel Margot, 1B Luke Raley, RHP Robert Stephenson, RHP Andrew Kittredge, LHP Jake Diekman
Key additions: RHP Ryan Pepiot, OF Jonny DeLuca, IF Jose Caballero, IF Ahmed Rosario, RHP Phil Maton, LHP Tyler Alexander
Season outlook: The Rays seemingly always find a way to exceed expectations and are seeking a sixth straight playoff berth this year. But it’s going to be an uphill battle to play October baseball this time around, especially without their departed ace Tyler Glasnow and star infielder Wander Franco, whose future with the team is unknown as his sexual abuse case plays out in the Dominican Republic.
The fate of the Rays will likely be determined by the health of their pitching staff, particularly Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs as they both recover from elbow procedures and are expected back at some point in the season. Shane Baz is also on the mend from Tommy John surgery and should contribute by the summer months. Reinforcements are on the way, but can the pitching staff hold the team around .500 until they arrive?
Best bet: Rays to not make the playoffs: -160. This is the year the Rays’ postseason streak ends, but don’t be surprised if they hang in the playoff race until the final days of the regular season.
Boston Red Sox
World Series odds: +3300
League odds: +2000
Division odds: +1700
Season win total: 79.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (+280), No (-380)
Record last season: 78-84 (fifth in AL East – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: LHP Chris Sale, DH Justin Turner, OF Alex Verdugo, LHP James Paxton, OF Adam Duvall
Key additions: OF Tyler O’Neill, RHP Lucas Giolito, 2B Vaughn Grissom, RHP Liam Hendriks
Season outlook: The Red Sox appear destined for a third straight last-place finish in the AL East after an incredibly dramatic offseason. Back in November, Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said that the team would be going “full throttle” to build a contender this winter, but it never happened. The team’s big offseason acquisition was right-hander Lucas Giolito, who signed a two-year deal before injuring himself this spring, prompting season-ending UCL surgery on his elbow. Team executives also shipped lefty Chris Sale and outfielder Alex Verdugo out of town in an attempt to shed payroll and look toward the future.
The lacklustre offseason prompted superstar third baseman Rafael Devers to recently speak up and plead with the front office to make a significant signing to improve the starting rotation, but his words have fallen on deaf ears. Boston’s starting rotation, which is projected to consist of Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock, could be one of the worst in the AL this year. Bello, the most promising of the bunch, signed a six-year contract extension with the club earlier this month.
Best bet: Red Sox to finish fifth in the division: -120. Everything will have to go right for this team to finish at or above .500 this season. That only happens if several pitchers on the staff have career years and oft-injured shortstop Trevor Story recaptures his All-Star form. Taking the Red Sox to finish under 79.5 (-110) wins is also a smart bet.
