February won’t go away easy, staying with us here for one more day. For two teams in action Thursday, that comes with very different implications. For the Toronto Maple Leafs, they’ll take a bit more of this month, as their recent stretch of play has given them a lot of help in the standings, and carries a lot of positivity in its process. For the Arizona Coyotes, though, they can’t wait to move on from where they currently stand, desperately trying to shake off 13 consecutive losses. On this special Leap Day game, will the blue and white twist the knife against a weaker opponent, or will they end February flat on their faces?
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes
ARI +205
TOR -250
The Maple Leafs enter this game as heavy home favourites, coming in at -250 on the moneyline at bet365, though that number has tightened up a bit overnight.
Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -250 |
| Coyotes Moneyline Odds | +205 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+100), Coyotes +1.5 (-120) |
| Total | 6.5 goals (over -115, under -105) |
| Time/Date | Feb. 29, 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (33-17-8 SU, 21-37 ATS, 32-24-2 o/u)
It was only a matter of time before the Maple Leafs saw their salary cap era-leading win streak end, and on Tuesday night, they learned that revenge was a dish occasionally served golden. Going up against the Vegas Golden Knights for the second time in under a week, their 7-4 routing of the team in their home was swiftly responded to in a similar fashion.
To Toronto’s credit, the game was closer than the score implied. Scoreless after one, a 10-minute run towards the back end of the second saw three Vegas goals to Toronto’s one, with Ivan Barbashev opening the festivities up. Despite the two-goal deficit, the game never truly felt out of reach for Toronto, and even when Jonathan Marchessault added his 31st goal of the season in the third period, there was still some hope. Ryan Reaves shocked the crowd with a surprisingly solid jump to pot his third goal of the season with five minutes to go, and the Leafs made a push in the final minutes to close the gap further, but an empty-netter and a garbage time goal sent the Toronto fans home disappointed. Oh, and somewhere along the way, Sheldon Keefe was ejected for his complaints about the officiating. Yeah, it was one of those nights.
Ultimately, as fun as the Leafs’ hot streak was, it left the group a little too complacent going into a game against a team seeking revenge. We’ll see if that lesson was learned ahead of a similar situation Thursday.
About the Coyotes (23-30-5 SU, 30-28 ATS, 31-23-4 o/u)
The last time we checked in on these two teams together, the Coyotes were losers in their last 10, feverishly hoping to avoid moving on to 11. Since then, they’ve lost to Toronto, started a road trip, and lost two more. First, they stepped into their former home of Winnipeg on Sunday and, while they dug themselves an early hole, they were able to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the first to force overtime. Victory was in their grasp, only to be taken away 33 seconds into the bonus frame by Kyle Connor. Two days later, they headed east and took on the Montreal Canadiens, and a losing streak was snapped – it just belonged to the other team. Arizona fell behind eight minutes into the first period and could never catch up, getting two goals of their own but ultimately never coming within more than a single goal again.
Needless to say, it’s been a tough stretch. At the start of this streak, they were six games above .500 and even a game above “true” .500. Now, they’re in the bottom five of the standings, with Columbus just three points behind them. What was once a potential sneaky season now looks like another lottery run.
Last Matchup
Like Vegas before them, you don’t have to go far to find the latest game between these two. You only have to go to February 21st, a little more than a week ago. Toronto showed up at Mullett Arena and took control immediately, first breaking the ice with Bobby McMann’s ninth of the year, followed by Auston Matthews cutting the suspense and getting his 50th goal out of the way at home. Toronto’s three-goal lead at the end of one proved useful in the second when the Coyotes made a quick push to make it 3-2 and then 4-3, but the Leafs built up some insurance once more in the third to carry a 6-3 victory.
Projected Lineups
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Today’s Arizona Coyotes Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – William Nylander Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Nick Robertson Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves Defence T.J Brodie – Morgan Rielly Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe Mark Giordano – William Lagesson Starting In Goal Joseph Woll 8-5-1, 2.80 GAA, 0.916 SV% | Forwards Alex Kerfoot – Barrett Hayton – Nick Schmaltz Matias Maccelli – Nick Bjugstad – Lawson Crouse Jason Zucker – Logan Cooley – Dylan Guenther Michael Carcone – Jack McBain – Liam O’Brien Defence J.J. Moser – Mathew Dumba Sean Durzi – Michael Kesselring Jusso Valimaki – Troy Stecher Starting In Goal Connor Ingram 17-14-3, 2.81 GAA, 0.910 SV% |
Looking at Toronto’s lineup, regardless of whether Timothy Liljegren returns tonight, I hope they give another look to splitting Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie up. The pair was great in the past – it hasn’t been this year, and swapping which one of them plays on their weak side didn’t do much good for them yesterday.
As for the Yotes, well, there’s one obvious hole here, so let’s address that in the injury update below. Past that, they’re expected to give the Leafs their first look at Connor Ingram this year in goal. Ingram, who started the season as one of the most pleasant surprises in the NHL, hasn’t had a friendly February, going 0-3-2 with a .864 save percentage.
Alex Kerfoot (ARI) to score a goal
+400
Key Injuries
There isn’t any news on the injury front for the Leafs just yet – maybe we see Liljegren and Woll back, maybe we don’t – so in the meantime it’s the usual crew. The LTIR squad, Calle Jarnkrok, and Conor Timmins all remain out for at least a while longer.
UPDATE: Joseph Woll will be returning for his first game of action since December 7th.
On Arizona’s end, they’re still without Travis Boyd (upper-body), and could be without Clayton Keller, who missed Tuesday’s game against Montreal. He left Arizona’s game on Sunday with an upper-body injury.
Betting Trends
- The Coyotes are notorious thorns in Toronto’s side, no matter what the odds say. Arizona is 6-4 in their last 10 games against the Leafs, despite Toronto being the favourite in all 10 of those games. Against the puckline, they improve to 7-3.
- Looking at their current run though, well… it’s mostly what you’d expect from a team that’s lost a baker’s dozens worth of games in a row. They’re 0-10 straight-up in their last 10 (duh), but impressively, have covered the puckline in four of those games. In other words, they’ve still stayed in the mix! The puckline is the closest we’ll get to seeing tangible moral victories, so it’s fitting here that they do somewhat decent in an otherwise awful run.
- The Leafs look pretty good across the board, at 8-2 straight-up in their last 10, 6-4 against the puckline, and they’ve cleared the total goals over in eight of their last 10. Games have been high-event, fun, and for the most part, successful!
Player Prop Trends
- If Keller doesn’t return tonight, Matias Macelli will be the go-to name for the Coyotes. Maccelli, who surprised many as a rookie last season, has three goals and four assists in Arizona’s last 10 games. Trailing him for the team lead in points in that stretch are Alex Kerfoot, Nick Schmaltz, and Jason Zucker, who all have six points apiece.
- Leading the projected healthy Arizona players in shots on goal over their last 10 games is Lawson Crouse, who has hit the net 29 times, scoring once.
- Tyler Bertuzzi mania continues for Toronto. Five goals, seven points, and 27 shots in his and the Leafs’ last 10 games is pretty good! Obviously, it doesn’t line up with the nuclear numbers from Auston Matthews (12G 6A), Mitch Marner (2G 16A), and William Nylander (8G 9A) in that stretch, but it’s nice to see him contribute as originally hoped. Same goes for Max Domi (3G, 3A, 27 SOG).
Wagers To Consider
- Auston Matthews hasn’t scored in two whole games – shocking, I know. But we’re all still hovering over the next one, and knowing that he potted two against the Yotes in the last matchup, bet365 has his anytime line at -160 for today. If you want to get cheeky, he’s +400 for the first goal and +425 for the last.
- We’ve all see the “former Leaf embarrassed them in their return game” scenario play out, most recently with Pierre Engvall’s game-winner when the Islanders came to town. Well, a player of the same ilk here is Alex Kerfoot, who has points in four of his last five games and is producing at a 48-point clip this year. There isn’t a points prop for him today, but he might be worth keeping in mind at +400 for a goal.
- Bobby McMann is starting to show up on the shot props list, and today he’s sitting at -190 to clear 1.5 pucks to the net. He’s done that in six of eight games, averaging a little under three shots per game in that stretch, so unless we get an indication he’s sliding back down to the bottom of the lineup, I’d give him the look.
- William Nylander was explosive in the last game against the Coyotes, taking seven shots on goal and scoring two. If you like him to have another big performance, bet365 has a boosted Same Game Parlay combining him taking 4+ shots, scoring another goal, and the Leafs winning, at +260 up from +240.
