Can you believe that we’re only three weeks away from the start of the MLB regular season? The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will kick off the regular season on March 20 in Seoul, Korea, as part of a two-game series overseas, so there’s not a ton of time to begin handicapping various futures odds.
Although the Dodgers and Padres will technically open the season on March 20, Opening Day for all 30 MLB teams will commence on March 28.
Let’s jump into it and take a closer look at the five teams in the NL West Division using bet365‘s odds:
Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series odds: +400
League odds: +175
Division odds: -550
Season win total: 104.5 (+100 over, -130 under)
To make playoffs: -4000
Record last season: 100-62 (first in NL West – lost in NL Division Series)
Key departures: DH J.D. Martinez, RHP Lance Lynn, OF David Peralta
Key additions: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, OF Teoscar Hernandez, RHP Tyler Glasnow, LHP James Paxton
Season outlook: The best team in baseball on paper over the past several seasons got even better this winter by signing a pair of Japanese stars in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles spent roughly $943,000,000 (USD) on players this offseason, according to Spotrac, nearly four times more than the next competitor, the Houston Astros. Ohtani, who underwent elbow surgery last September, won’t pitch this year, but he will serve as the designated hitter and has the potential to be the most potent offensive player in baseball after launching 44 homes while hitting over .300 for the Los Angeles Angels last year. Yamamoto, at just 25 years of age, has enjoyed incredible success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League, earning five All-Star nods and three Eiji Sawamura awards (MLB equivalent of the Cy Young Award for best pitcher). It’ll be interesting to see if his success translates to the North American game, but expectations are high that Yamamoto can immediately become one of the top pitchers in MLB.
And if those two additions weren’t enough, the Dodgers also traded for former Tampa Bay Rays ace Tyler Glasnow to round out their starting rotation. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are also expected to return at some point during the season from their respective long-term injuries.
Make no mistake about it, this is a super team that should steamroll its way to World Series glory. But the Commissioner’s Trophy isn’t won on paper, and the Dodgers have just one World Series title since 2020 despite consistently boasting the best overall roster statistically over the past few seasons.
Best bet: Shohei Ohtani over 39.5 home runs (+110). Ohtani made a great first impression when he went deep in his first spring training game in Dodger Blue. And now, he’ll have superstars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman sandwiching him in the lineup to provide unprecedented protection that’ll force opposing pitchers to throw strikes to him. Ohtani has averaged 41.3 homers per season over his last three campaigns with the Angels, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him top 50 in this stacked Dodgers lineup, provided he remains healthy. Remember, he’ll be able to focus all of his efforts on hitting this year while he recovers from his elbow issue, and won’t have the added responsibility of being a two-way sensation.
Shohei Ohtani over 39.5 home runs
+110
Arizona Diamondbacks
World Series odds: +2500
League odds: +1800
Division odds: +800
Season win total: 83.5 (over -140, under +110)
To make playoffs: Yes (+105), No (-135)
Record last season: 84-78 (second in NL West – lost in World Series)
Key departures: OF Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria, RHP Mark Melancon
Key additions: 3B Eugenio Suarez, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, OF/DH Joc Pederson
Season outlook: It’s going to be awfully tough for the Diamondbacks to replicate last season’s Cinderella run to the World Series, but they’ve positioned themselves to be competitive again this year in the NL. Bringing in lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to solidify the starting rotation behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is one of the more underrated offseason moves, in my opinion, and replacing Evan Longoria with Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner fills the void. Re-signing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a three-year, $42 million deal seems like a bargain after his All-Star campaign last year and there are a few young players (Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas) on the roster that could continue taking steps forward.
Best bet: Diamondbacks to make the playoffs: +105. This starting rotation is good enough on its own to propel the D-Backs back to the playoffs, and there’s enough pop in the lineup to provide sufficient run support to make it happen. They’re in a tough division with the Dodgers, but I like Arizona to claim a Wild Card spot again in 2024.
San Diego Padres
World Series odds: +3000
League odds: +2500
Division odds: +1000
Season win total: 81.5 (over -110, under -110)
To make playoffs: Yes (+200), No (-250)
Record last season: 82-80 (third in NL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: OF Juan Soto, LHP Josh Hader, LHP Blake Snell, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Seth Lugo,
Key additions: RHP Michael King, RHP Jhony Brito, LHP Yuki Matsui, RHP Woo-Suk Go, LHP Wandy Peralta, C Kyle Higashioka
Season outlook: The Padres failed to produce results after several high-profile additions in recent years, and that prompted a fire sale to get the team’s bloated payroll back under control. Losing elite players like Juan Soto and Josh Hader this offseason really hurts the roster, and we can safely assume that reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell also won’t be back, although he’s still looking for work on the open market.
This team finds itself in limbo as a bubble playoff team entering the 2024 season. There’s enough talent on the roster still with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado to push for the postseason, but there’s also the possibility things really go south quickly, prompting more subtractions from the roster by the July trade deadline.
Best bet: Padres to finish fourth in the division: +210. You can’t lose three elite talents like Soto, Hader, and Snell and expect to still be competitive. Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, and Yuki Matsui (the team’s potential new closer) are all nursing injuries this spring and are pushing hard to be ready for the March 20 opener. That’s not the way you want to start the spring and there’s already some very bad vibes surrounding this team.
Padres under 81.5 wins
-110
San Francisco Giants
World Series odds: +3300
League odds: +2800
Division odds: +1000
Season win total: 81.5 (over +100, under -130)
To make playoffs: Yes (+200), No (-250)
Record last season: 79-83 (fourth in NL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: SS Brandon Crawford, DH/OF Joc Pederson, OF Mitch Haniger, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Ross Stripling, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, LHP Alex Wood, RHP Jakob Junis
Key additions: CF Jung Hoo Lee, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Robbie Ray,
Season outlook: The jury is still out on the Giants, who many MLB reporters and insiders believe are major frontrunners to land at least one of the two marquee free agents still on the market: Matt Chapman or Snell. Chapman is the logical fit here with a glaring need at third base (Wilmer Flores is the current projected starter) but the addition of Snell would also help push this team closer to the playoffs than below .500.
Unlike the Padres, the Giants at least seem headed in the right direction. The offseason signings of Korean superstar Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, and Jordan Hicks show the team intends to be competitive in 2024, and the starting rotation could welcome back 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray in the second half of the season as he rehabs from elbow surgery. Pitcher-friendly Oracle Park always seems to favour the home team and its pitching staff.
Best bet: It’s difficult to handicap this team with so much still up in the air regarding potential late additions to the roster, but one futures market to consider is Jung Hoo Lee to win NL Rookie of the Year. He has the second-shortest odds (+800) behind the runaway favourite Yamamoto +175), and could steal the award away should Yamamoto fail to deliver on high expectations or succumb to injury at some point during the season.
Colorado Rockies
World Series odds: +15000
League odds: +7500
Division odds: +15000
Season win total: 59.5 (over -115, under -105)
To make playoffs: Yes (+2200), No (-25000)
Record last season: 59-103 (fifth in NL West – didn’t make playoffs)
Key departures: LHP Brent Suter, RHP Chris Flexen
Key additions: RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Dakota Hudson, LHP Jalen Beeks,
Season outlook: It could be another very long season for the Rockies with declining veterans like Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant headlining the roster. They also don’t have a single starting pitcher projected to post an ERA below 5.29 at FanGraphs, which is also incredibly worrisome given the high altitude of Coors Field, a graveyard for pitchers. One bright spot could be 25-year-old outfielder Nolan Jones, who is fresh off a 20-homer, 20-steal season in 106 games for the Rockies last season.
Best bet: The Rockies have the second-shortest odds (+225) to finish with the worst regular season record in baseball behind the Oakland A’s (+150), but PECOTA and FanGraphs models have Colorado finishing with the worst record in the majors, with projections of 58 and 63.5 wins, respectively.
