The Toronto Maple Leafs pulled one of their best wins of the season out of what felt like thin air on Tuesday, convincingly beating the St. Louis Blues with multiple key players out of the lineup. On Thursday, they’ll try to do the same against the Philadelphia Flyers, a team that many thought would be a minnow to start the year, but have since pushed their way into the playoff mix. Let’s dive into what we can expect ahead of puck drop.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
TOR -155
PHI +130
The Maple Leafs are thin in the lineup but still have a home moneyline edge of -155 at bet365. That number slipped overnight, though it’s recovering with news that Toronto might be a bit less shorthanded than Tuesday.
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -155 |
| Flyers Moneyline Odds | +130 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+160), Flyers +1.5 (-190) |
| Total | 6.0 goals (over -115, under -105) |
| Time/Date | Feb. 15, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (27-16-8 SU, 16-35 ATS, 26-23-2 o/u)
An experienced veteran of Maple Leafs hockey knew that Tuesday’s game was going to be a great one for them the second their level of adversity went from bad to worse. Morgan Rielly’s five-game suspension was already a known blow to the team’s blue line, and if you’re like me in our last preview, you probably headed over to the St. Louis puckline feeling an imminent disaster.
But in a fashion only the Leafs can deliver, the team announced just before warmups that Mitch Marner and John Tavares would be out with flu-like symptoms, bringing the lineup to a point of decimation. At that point, you just knew it was going to be “chaotic win night”.
Boy, was it ever. Five minutes into the first period, Bobby McMann, who drew in as a result of the illnesses and only had two goals in 26 games leading up to the night, buried his fifth of the year to put the Leafs up. Before the period could close, William Nylander added some insurance. The Blues’ Alexey Tropchenko halved Toronto’s lead in the second, but in the final frame, McMann doubled his tally up and with a minute and a half to go, added a bank shot empty-netter for a hat trick that now accounts for 60% of his NHL goals.
Combine that improbable effort with one of the best defensive performances from the Leafs all season, where they conceded just 15 shots while having the lead for 55 minutes, and you get one of the best wins of the season, and their first three-goal win in over a month.
Can they build on that Thursday? It’s hard to say. It’s not as improbable the second time around, after all.
About the Flyers (29-16-6 SU, 32-22 ATS, 21-30-3 o/u)
The Flyers have been among the league’s biggest surprises this year from a performance perspective. Believed to be firmly in the rebuilding phase at the start of the year, the team is holding on to the third seed in the Metropolitan Division with first nearly as close to view as fourth.
The team has strung together a couple of nice winning streaks, powered through setbacks, and the underlying metrics are actually pretty decent. If John Tortorella wasn’t on your list of “coaches that matter” before, he must be now. He’s got Rasmus Ristolainen playing quality defence in the year 2024! What a world.
Currently, the Flyers are winners of their last four, snagging victories against Florida, Winnipeg, Seattle, and Arizona. Thursday’s game will be their last before going outdoors against New Jersey on Saturday.
Last Matchup
Incredibly, this is the first time these two teams have faced off this year, despite having a three-game season series to work with. To throw it back we must go all the way to last January, as last year’s series was taken care of on the opposite side of the midway mark. It was long enough ago that Matt Murray started in goal!
Toronto skated away with a 6-2 result in that one, though the standouts of that night are either injured (Calle Jarnkrok), sick (Marner, Tavares, Conor Timmins), or departed (Zach-Aston Reese).
Projected Lineups
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Today’s Philadelphia Flyers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander Noah Gregor – Max Domi – Nick Robertson Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Bobby McMann Defence T.J. Brodie – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe William Lagesson – Mark Giordano Starting In Goal Ilya Samsonov 10-4-6, 3.26 GAA, 0.880 SV% | Forwards Owen Tippett – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny Joel Farabee – Morgan Frost – Cam Atkinson Garnet Hataway – Ryan Poehling – Noah Cates Olle Lycksell – Scott Laughton – Egor Zamula Defence Cam York – Travis Sanheim Marc Staal – Jamie Drysdale Nick Seeler – Sean Walker Starting In Goal Samuel Ersson 15-9-3, 2.49 GAA, 0.901 SV% |
I know what you’re thinking – that Leafs lineup looks decimated. Well, I’ve got good news for you – it might be worse by puck drop! Wait, that’s not good news. Yes, we’re still waiting on more info as to how close Marner and Tavares are to returning, and yesterday we received news that Nylander is also sick, and missed practice. Nylander, Marner, and Tavares did all skate this morning, and are expected to return, though things can always change on a dime with illness. Should it hold, Ryan Reaves and Alex Steeves will daw out.
Sean Couturier (PHI) to score a goal
+250
Key Injuries
The only news on the injury front (so, not including a quarter of the team being sick) for Toronto is that Calle Jarnkrok’s broken knuckle has been upgraded from an IR assignment to a long-term IR assignment. It’ll be at least a few weeks until the team sees him again.
On Philadelphia’s injury front, Tyson Foerster and Rasmus Ristolainen are the only imminent players on the mend. Foerster is in the gametime-decision range with a lower-body injury. Ristolainen is at least week-to-week with an upper-body injury.
Betting Trends
- The Maple Leafs have dominated this head-to-head matchup in recent years, going 7-3 in the last 10 matchups against the Flyers, including six wins in a row dating back to November 2021. Over the 10-game sample, the puckline is split 5-5.
- Toronto’s win (which even cleared the puckline!) brings them to 6-4 in their last 10 games, and 3-7 on the puckline. Their games have hit the over on total goals in four of 10.
- On Philadellphia’s end, they’re 5-5 in their last 10 and 4-6 on the puckline. Over the last five, they fare much better, going 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 on the puckline.
Player Prop Trends
- Philadelphia’s most productive player over the last 10 games probably isn’t who you think it is. It’s Morgan Frost, son of former Leafs PA announcer Andy! He’s got two goals and eight assists in their last 10, centreing the second line.
- Leading the team in goals in that stretch is Owen Tippett, who recently signed a long-term contract extension. He has five in Philadelphia’s last 10. He also leads the team with 38 shots, putting at least three pucks to the net in 12 of the last 13 games.
- The usual suspects are on the top of the Leafs’ list, and three or four of those suspects are out of the lineup tonight, so I’ll leave you with a fact here: If Auston Matthews continued scoring at his current clip, and Bobby McMann repeated his hat trick every night, it would take the latter 20 games to catch up to the former’s goal total.
Wagers To Consider
- Sean Couturier was named the new captain of the Flyers on Wednesday, filling a seat vacated by Claude Giroux a year and a half ago. The 12th-year Flyer is having his first healthy season in about two years and is back to being one of the league’s best defensive forwards. He does still have a scoring touch when needed, though, and I could see him using it Thursday in celebration. Consider him for a goal (+250), or to hit his shots on goal over (2.5, over -115).
- Auston Matthews’ anytime goal prop sits at -115 Thursday, slightly longer than Tuesday. He’s basically a permanent fixture on the list at this point, and has goals in seven of his last 10. His lack of production against St. Louis broke a nine-game point streak and I doubt he’ll let that gap last very long.
- If you’re pessimistic on the Leafs tonight, bet365 is boosting a same-game parlay of a Flyers win, a Couturier assist, and a Travis Konecny point. Konency is another player who tends to do well against Toronto, so this is a great mix. Typically +425, this comes in at +500.
- Tyler Bertuzzi may still have a seemingly negative finishing touch, but he’s getting his chances of late and was in the mix a bunch on Tuesday without the stars. I’d consider the over on his shots on goal line of 2.5 at +150. Bertuzzi has had two or more shots in five consecutive games, so he’s definitely sniffing around it.
- Shame on the books for not giving me a Bobby McMann hat trick prop. Hey, if Matthews can do it back-to-back…
