The Toronto Maple Leafs have been dominating the news cycle over the past few days, with Morgan Rielly’s last-minute cross-check on Ridly Greig on Saturday creating so much smoke that Canada, for a moment, almost forgot about the Super Bowl. The fallout from that remains in the balance, but the show must go on, so the buds host the St. Louis Blues at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night.
Bet on Blues vs. Maple Leafs
STL +180
TOR -220
The Maple Leafs are healthy home favourites, sitting at -220 on the moneyline and seeing their gap widen overnight.
Maple Leafs vs. Blues odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -220 |
| Blues Moneyline Odds | +180 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+120), Blues +1.5 (-140) |
| Total | 6.5 goals (over -105, under -115) |
| Time/Date | Feb. 13, 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (26-16-8 SU, 15-35 ATS, 26-22-2 o/u)
The Toronto Maple Leafs played a hockey game on Saturday, though that part has almost completely been forgotten. Taking on the Ottawa Senators in the last edition of the Battle of Ontario in 2023/24, the rivalry might have some newfound venom after the ending of this game. Auston Matthews opened up the scoring with his 42nd of the year in the opening minutes, but after a disallowed Max Domi goal, it was all Ottawa, who tied the game with two minutes remaining in the opening frame and stormed through the second, putting together a healthy 4-2 lead.
Domi was able to attach a legitimate goal to his name in the third, putting the Leafs back within one, but after a full-court press, the Leafs weren’t able to convert. In the dying seconds, Ridly Greig took an errant puck into the Leafs zone and absolutely wired it into an empty net, much to the dislike of Morgan Rielly. Rielly cross-checked Greig up high and triggered a scrum, and some extra words in the final seconds.
Discourse has boiled over following the incident, as to whether or not Greig’s emphatic slapper was unsportsmanlike, whether or not it merited a response from the Leafs, and whether or not Rielly’s response was too far. For the record, I’m on teams “The shot is great theatre and I encourage it, but also one with an expected response”, “a response isn’t necessary but it’s nice to see some pride”, and “a high cross-check was too much”. Now, we wait for the league to decide Rielly’s punishment, with a virtual hearing scheduled for later Tuesday due to inclement weather in New York. Typically, an in-person hearing in the regular season implies a six-plus game punishment.
More layers to this topic can be discussed forever, but the main point going into Tuesday is that Toronto is without their top defenceman for a while. It’ll be a big blow to a team still struggling to win decisively like they have in previous years. Maybe it’s a blessing for a player in need of a bigger opportunity (looking at you, Timothy Liljegren), but there’s potential for it to be a standings-connected curse for the team.
About the Blues (28-21-2 SU, 30-21 ATS, 21-25-5 o/u)
St. Louis is making a good case for the “new coach bump” effect, as results under Drew Bannister have been much improved over what the team was receiving under Craig Berube. Not that expectations were super high for the team this season, but a 13-14-1 start and a five-loss-in-six-games streak in early December pushed GM Doug Armstrong to make a change. Since that switch, the team has gone a more than respectable 15-7-1, including a 7-1 run in their last eight games.
Granted, many of the wins in this recent streak have been nailbiters – like the Maple Leafs, often one-goal results, including three in a row in overtime – but the Blues had an explosive night on Sunday to set up for Tuesday. They went into Montreal to take on the Canadiens and managed to beat the Kansas City Chiefs to being the first team from Missouri to score a touchdown on Super Bowl Sunday. Opening the scoring just 25 seconds in, St. Louis threw down seven goals across the evening, including one of my favourite stat lines – Torey Krug’s -1 plus/minus in a five-assist, 7-2 victory. It’s not quite Brett Lebda, but still incredible.
Last Matchup
Going back to last January to find the last game between these two teams, we land on a milestone night for Auston Matthews, and a less preferable result for the team. The megastar picked up his 500th career point in a game where the Blues scored the first two goals, followed by the two teams exchanging the next three a piece back and forth, followed by a pair by Toronto to equalize. The game ultimately went to a shootout, which Brayden Schenn sealed off in the fourth round.
Projected Lineups
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Today’s St. Louis Blues Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander Noah Gregor – Max Domi – Nicholas Robertson Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves Defence T.J. Brodie – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe William Lagesson – Mark Giordano Starting In Goal Ilya Samsonov 9-4-6, 3.38 GAA, 0.879 SV% | Forwards Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou Jake Neighbours – Brayden Schenn – Kasperi Kapanen Brandon Saad – Kevin Hayes – Sammy Blais Alexey Toropchenko – Oskar Sundqvist – Nathan Walker Defence Nick Leddy – Colton Parayko Torey Krug – Matt Kessel Marco Scandella – Calle Rosen Starting In Goal Jordan Binnington 18-13-2, 2.89 GAA, 0.909 SV% |
The Leafs lineup is projected to be the same up front and in goal, but with Morgan Rielly awaiting his lengthy vacation, the blue line gets a shake-up, and… okay, it’s pretty worrisome. That group at its best is salvageable but unimpressive. If anyone is cold, well, this could be a tough night for them.
The Blues are close to full strength – more on that in a bit – and we see some familiar names here. Kasperi Kapanen and Calle Rosen, welcome back!
William Nylander over 0.5 power-play points
+140
Key Injuries
On Toronto’s front, David Kampf is scheduled to return to the lineup, as is Mark Giordano. Joseph Woll is participating more in regular practices, as well – a good sign for the Leafs in goal.
On a less fortunate front, what would’ve been a great opportunity for Conor Timmins has turned out to be yet another moment of setback. Instead of taking Rielly’s spot on the powerplay, he’s out indefinitely with mononucleosis. To put it bluntly, one of the most unlucky players I’ve ever seen on the health front.
For St. Louis, Justin Faulk is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, as is Scott Perunovich.
Betting Trends
- The Blues have had the edge in this matchup over the past several years, with a 7-3 record dating back to November 2017. If you zoom in on the last few years, though, Toronto is 3-2 in the last five. Toronto is less fortunate on the puckline, going 1-4 against it in those five games.
- Overall, Toronto are 5-5 in their last 10, and 2-8 on the puckline. Give or take a game, this is more or less where they’ve been all season – decentish record, but a lack of decisive wins for a team that is typically given the -1.5 edge.
- St. Louis is on a nice roll of late, going 7-3 both straight up and on the puckline. They’ve hit the total goals over six times in that same stretch.
Player Prop Trends
- Leading the way for the Blues in points over the last 10 games sits Robert Thomas. The playmaker has 11 helpers to go with two assists. Jake Neighbours and Jordan Kyrou share the team lead in goals in that period, scoring five in 10.
- If you’re looking for shot volume, the Blues aren’t the team to find high-end individuals. Pavel Buchnevich leads the team with 26 pucks to the net over their last 10 games, which is one of the lowest leading totals we’ve seen this season.
- Meanwhile, the Leafs have three players with over 35 shots on goal in their last 10 games (the usual suspects – Auston Matthews at 44, John Tavares at 41, William Nylander at 37). Matthews leads the team in goals and points over that run with nine and six respectively.
- Without Morgan Reilly, there’s a big-time lack of production on the Toronto blue line. The projected defensive lineup has six points in its last 10 games. Not their leader, but the combined group of six.
Wagers To Consider
- Just from a value perspective, I’d have a really hard time recommending you take the Leafs in this game. Even if this Rielly situation ends up being a galvanizing experience for them, these two teams aren’t that far apart in the standings, the Blues are hotter of late, and Toronto is going to be missing a key cog here. That Blues +1.5 puckline at -140 looks really strong, and +170 on the moneyline might be worthwhile too.
- Your usual Auston Matthews goal watch: -130 anytime.
- It’s been a bit of a spotty stretch production-wise for William Nylander, who has only landed on the scoresheet in four of his last 12 games despite taking 46 shots in that stretch. The market hasn’t adjusted to this yet (or is playing patient) and still has his points line at 1.5. With that said, a workaround might be to look at a power-play point at +140. Nylander will likely see more focus on the wall with Rielly out of the mix.
- If you’re feeling especially self-loathing as a Leafs fan, a Kasperi Kapanen anytime goal at +400 might be a fun emotional hedge. Hey, if Pierre Engvall can score a game-winner against them with the Islanders…
