Toronto will play Calgary, Vancouver, and Seattle this week, but first, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to get through the Edmonton Oilers, who are sizable -155 moneyline favourites at bet365. All eyes will be on this matchup on Tuesday at Rogers Place, as some of the biggest stars in hockey will go head-to-head in the first of two meetings between the teams this season.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | +130 |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -155 |
| Puckline Odds | Oilers -1.5 (+145), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-170) |
| Total | 7 goals (over +100, under -120) |
| Time/Date | Jan. 16, 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN4 Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (21-12-8 SU, 13-26 ATS, 22-17 o/u)
After stumbling through a relatively easy schedule in December, the Maple Leafs managed to secure points in five consecutive games at the start of January. However, they’ve hit a snag, enduring three consecutive losses and now face the risk of slipping back into a wild card position.
Some pundits will argue that the upcoming four-game road trip is precisely what the team needs, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time, if you ask me. With just one day off since the back-to-back losses over the weekend, the Maple Leafs will have played six games in nine days by the time they return home next week.
According to CSB’s NHL Projection Model, Toronto will finish around the 100-point mark and that gives the Maple Leafs an 83% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but if they don’t find success on this road trip, there will be a lot less optimism in the forecast.
Toronto has the toughest remaining schedule behind the Boston Bruins.
About the Oilers (23-15-1 SU, 17-22 ATS, 20-18-1 o/u)
Edmonton was the laughing stock of the league for the first month of the regular season after losing 3-2 to the last-place San Jose Sharks on Nov. 9, but since then, the Oilers have won games at a 78% clip. Now, the Oilers have a 95% chance of qualifying for the postseason, with second place in the Pacific Division their most likely landing spot, according to our model.
Stuart Skinner has been virtually impenetrable, going 17-4 while posting a .920 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average. According to Evolving Hockey, the 25-year-old goaltender has saved the Oilers approximately 10 goals above expected during that stretch.
Last Matchup
On March 11, 2023, in Toronto, the Maple Leafs secured a 7-4 victory in their last encounter with the Oilers. However, it’s worth noting that just over a week prior, on March 1, the Oilers had triumphed over the Maple Leafs with a 5-2 win. This highlights the wide range of potential outcomes in matchups of this nature.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|
| Forwards Pontus Holmberg – Auston Matthews – William Nylander Nicholas Robertson – John Tavares – Calle Jarnkrok Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – Mitch Marner Matthew Knies – David Kampf – Noah Gregor Defence Morgan Reilly – T.J. Brodie Jake McCabe – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Connor Timmins Starting In Goal Martin Jones 8-4-1, 2.30 GAA, .924 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Evander Kane – Leon Draisaitl – Warren Foegele Mattias Janmark – Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan Adam Erne – James Hamblin – Connor Brown Defence Darnell Nurse – Cody Ceci Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Brett Kulak – Vincent Desharnais Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner 18-9-1, 2.63 GAA, .903 SV% |
Evander Kane’s subtle shot at the lack of opportunities he’s been given must have caught his coach’s attention because the 32-year-old was skating alongside Leon Draisaitl and Warren Foegele on Monday. Ryan McLeod was back at practice after missing Saturday’s game, but on the third line. McLeod had been thriving with Draisaitl and Foegele, producing five goals and four assists in his last nine games. I don’t like this move at all.
Warren Foegele Anytime Goal
+350
Key Injuries
Forward Ryan Reaves and goaltender Joseph Woll remain out for the Maple Leafs. Edmonton is missing forward Sam Gagner, who is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, but they will get McLeod back in the lineup after he missed Saturday’s win due to an illness.
Betting Trends
- Toronto has actually had an edge over the Oilers, going 7-3 straight-up on the moneyline in their past 10 meetings against the Oilers. Unsurprisingly, seven of the last 10 games between these two teams have featured at least six goals, but that hasn’t been enough to create a strong trend to the over, as this matchup has gone just 5-4-1 to the over.
- The Maple Leafs have gone 4-6 straight-up in their last 10 games, but they’re 6-4 over their last 10 games on the road. However, while Toronto has won two road games as underdogs, they’ve been favourites on the road more often than they’ve been underdogs, and that puts their 11-9 road record into perspective.
- Edmonton is 10-0 in its last 10 games and 8-2 in the last 10 at home. Edmonton closed with -103 odds the last time they hosted the Maple Leafs on March 1, 2023.
Player Prop Trends
- Zach Hyman is proving that his 36-goal effort in 2022-23 was no fluke. Hyman has registered 42 shots on goal in his last 10 games, and according to Evolving Hockey, the 31-year-old has generated more expected goals than any other player this season.
- I would have preferred to talk about Ryan McLeod here, but he’s lost his spot on the second forward line, at least for now. Instead, let’s talk about Warren Foegele, who has three goals and seven assists in his last 10 games. Foegele actually led the Oilers in shots per 60 minutes during that stretch and generated more expected goals (per 60) than any member of the Oilers not named Auston Matthews.
- Speaking of Matthews, while he’s on a great pace to win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the top goal scorer in the NHL this season, he’s only registered enough shots on goal (five or more) to go over the 4.5 total seven times in his last 20 games.
Prediction
Since Dec. 1, the Maple Leafs rank among the top-10 teams in expected goals percentage and they’ve posted the fifth-best goal differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It’s hard to judge whether these recent improvements warrant any kind of celebration, though, because Toronto’s recent schedule has been easy and a 9-6-5 record isn’t impressive. Not to mention, Edmonton didn’t just get good overnight.
The Oilers have been the best team through the lens of Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model for the entire season, and they’ve got the second-best goal share in the NHL since Dec. 1. Toronto has been as good on offence as the Oilers during that stretch, but Edmonton has been solid defensively, ranking third in expected goals against per 60 minutes, while the Maple Leafs grade out in the 19th spot. Based on our estimates, Edmonton should win the game more than 58% of the time, so they are priced appropriately at -155 and there is no value betting on Toronto to win the game at +130.
Wagers To Consider
- As impressive as Edmonton’s 10-game win streak has been, the Oilers have had trouble putting away opponents recently, defeating the lowly Chicago Blackhawks by just one goal, and needing extra time to beat the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens. Toronto has gone to overtime 16 times this season. You can bet this game to end in a draw at +350.
- Warren Foegele has gone over 2.5 shots on goal 61.5% of the time over the last month and he should have opportunities to get to the net in this game. You can bet Foegele to register over 2.5 shots at -110, but he’s generated the second-most high-danger shot attempts over the last 10 games and he’s +350 to score an anytime goal. He even gets some power-play time, albeit on the second unit.
