Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 18 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Happy 2024 and Welcome NFL fans to Week 18, the final week of the NFL regular season!

As we wind down on the regular season, admittedly it can be tricky to find betting inspiration, particularly because teams that have locked things up will be resting key players, and teams that have already given up may not even want to win at this point. The fantasy football heads out there will know that the championship game is usually reserved for the second-to-last week of competition to avoid such pitfalls (congrats to all the champs out there). That being said, the final week does typically reserve some level of drama, some level of things to be settled, and that is indeed the case for Week 18.

Nine teams have already clinched postseason berths, five in the NFC: 49ers, Eagles, Lions, Cowboys and Rams. In the AFC, the Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, and Chiefs have clinched. That means five more spots are on the line in Week 18, and those five spots are where we’re gonna zone in on to find betting value. Perhaps most intriguing, is the three-way tie at the top of the AFC South, doubly intriguing considering that two of those teams (the Colts and Texans) play each other this week. Sticking with the South, in the NFC this time, the Bucs hope to hold off a final charge from the Saints to maintain their grip on the division lead. The Green Bay Packers find themselves in an eerily similar scenario to last season, with a win-and-you’re-in game in the final tilt of the season. Last season didn’t work out so well in what ended up being Aaron Rodgers’ final game as a Packer, Jordan Love hopes he can rewrite that script this year.

The NFL is able to move game times around at this time of year to highlight particularly spicy games and they’ve succeeded in saving the best for last this year. The Buffalo Bills travel to Miami for a Sunday night clash to determine the AFC East crown. The Bills even being in this scenario seemed pretty unlikely even a month ago, but this was righted and Buffalo’s run of play late in the season may yet culminate in the division title most expected them to win prior to the season.

Despite more than half of the league more or less checked out this week, either resting ahead of the playoffs, or resting ahead of golf season, there’s still a lot of meat on the bone for us to chew on. Now that we’re equipped with our choice storylines, let’s get to the numbers and make some picks!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-200	-4	O/U 35.5	Baltimore Ravens*	Saturday / 1:30 PM
Houston Texans	-120	-1	O/U 47.5	Indianapolis Colts*	Saturday / 5:15 PM
New Orleans Saints	-170	-3	O/U 42.5	Atlanta Falcons	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Cincinnati Bengals	-315	-7	O/U 37.5	Cleveland Browns	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars	-230	-5.5	O/U 40	Tennessee Titans*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Detroit Lions	-180	-3.5	O/U 45.5	Minnesota Vikings	Sunday / 1:00 PM
New England Patriots	-125	-1.5	O/U 30.5	New York Jets	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-230	-4.5	O/U 37.5	Carolina Panthers*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Green Bay Packers	-165	-3	O/U 44	Chicago Bears	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Dallas Cowboys	-850	-13	O/U 46	Washington Commanders*	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Las Vegas Raiders	-150	-2.5	O/U 38	Denver Broncos	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Los Angeles Chargers	-190	-3.5	O/U 35	Kansas City Chiefs	Sunday / 4:25 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-200	-4	O/U 41	Los Angeles Rams	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Philadelphia Eagles	-240	-5	O/U 42	New York Giants*	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Seattle Seahawks	-150	-3	O/U 47.5	Arizona Cardinals*	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Buffalo Bills	-165	-3	O/U 49.5	Miami Dolphins*	Sunday / 8:15 PM

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Week 18 lines to bet NOW

• Buffalo Bills – Moneyline: -165

There isn’t much point in hiding this one further down, it’s the jewel of Week 18, so let’s make our pick right off the bat. Beyond the fact that the Dolphins have struggled all season long when playing legitimately good teams, the fact that they’ve already clinched will take their edge off significantly. The AFC East title is at stake here, but more than that, Buffalo still has the business of clinching a playoff spot to take care off. There is also a scenario where the Bills find themselves approaching this game as a do-or-die. Should the Jaguars and Steelers both win, Buffalo would have to win to make the playoffs outright and a loss would see their season redemption arc fall short. All this to say, the Bills will be laser-focused on what’s at stake this week, and it’s hard to see the Dolphins getting up for this game at the level required to stop Buffalo’s momentum at the moment. Both of these teams can look forward to the playoffs in a couple weeks time.

• Houston Texans – Moneyline: -120

This game is a hard one to wrap my head around. On the one hand, the Colts are hosting and have already beaten the Texans this year with Gardner Minshew at QB. But that was way back in Week 2, and the emergence of C.J. Stroud had not fully blossomed yet. After missing two games with injury, Stroud returned to lead Houston to a lopsided victory over the Titans in Week 17. It doesn’t really need to be said that Stroud makes for a completely different Texans squad, and as much as Minshew has been a good story for Indy, the rest of their season has been fairly dysfunctional, even for a team owned by Jim Irsay. Seeing the Colts come one game short of the playoffs just sort of makes sense for this franchise at this time, and all due respect to Minshew, most of us would rather see what Stroud is capable of in the playoffs.

• Jacksonville Jaguars– Moneyline: -230

There’ll be some hand-wringing this week from worried Jags fans but worry not, the formula is right for them to lock up a playoff spot and the AFC South title all in one. Despite the fact that the Titans are hosting this one, I don’t give them much of a chance here. To beat the Jaguars you have to throw the ball, and that’s one thing Tennessee simply cannot do in its current iteration. The Titans looked totally washed in Week 17 en route to a 26-3 loss at the hands of the Texans and should roll over here, too.

Week 18 lines to bet LATER

• Green Bay Packers – Moneyline: -165

I’ll put it to ya straight, I think Jordan Love succeeds where Aaron Rodgers failed last season. I think the Packers take this one and clinch a playoff spot which seemed pretty damn unlikely not too long ago. Green Bay gets the luxury of hosting this game and that gives it enough of an edge to pull this off. All that being said, Justin Fields and the Bears have been playing well of late and considering they already own the Panthers’ first-round pick (lol) they don’t need to worry so much about tanking this one. Betting folks will also notice those factors and money will inevitably move Chicago’s way as the game gets closer. Have some patience and wait for a bit more value on the Pack here.

Week 18 line that makes me go hmm…

• New York Jets– Moneyline: +105

The Jets have looked listless of late. Their unlikely quest of preserving a playoff spot in anticipation of Aaron Rodgers’ return from injury came up short and it does really seem like nobody wants to still be playing at this time of year. That, to me, is a perfect recipe for an unlikely positive performance. In what could be Bill Belichick’s last game at the helm of the Patriots would it not just kinda make sense for them to lose? The ineptitude of both teams makes for a tricky one to call, but I just see a Jets win in it’s future.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• The Pittsburgh Steelershave hit the moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games 🔥
• The Indianapolis Coltshave scored last in five of their last 17 games 🧊
• The Houston Texanshave hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games 🔥
• The Tennessee Titanshave only hit the game total over in seven of their last 20 games 🧊
• The Jacksonville Jaguarshave hit the moneyline in seven of their last 10 away games 🔥
• The Los Angeles Chargershave only hit the moneyline in seven of their last 21 games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 18

Here are a few player props I love this week:

• Player Passing Yards Milestones – 300 Yards – C.J. Stroud: +145

Stroud dropped 384 yards on the Colts in a losing cause in Week 2. When Stroud is healthy, the 300-yard mark has been a routine target. With the playoffs on the line, expect a big day from the Houston QB.

• Touchdown Scorers – Anytime – Mike Evans: +125

With the playoffs on the line, there is no reason for the Bucs to ease off the gas against the worst team in the league. Expect big days from Tampa’s offensive stars, including WR Mike Evans.

• Anytime Scorecast – Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer, PHI Eagles 7-12 Winning Margin : +300

Much like the Bucs, there is no reason for the Eagles to ease up on the Giants. A Philly win paired with a Cowboys loss will give the Eagles the NFC East title. I’m expecting at least one scamper score for Hurts and a big win margin for Philly.

⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐PLAYOFF CLINCH EDITION

Let’s shoot for the moon here. A five-way parlay of teams I think will punch their tickets to the playoffs this weekend.

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