Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 17 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome NFL fans to Week 17!

Before we get to the numbers for the week ahead, let’s talk about a few storylines from the week that was. The biggest story, at least in my opinion, was the Ravens’ comfortable victory over the 49ers. A surprise to me if I’m being perfectly honest, my hat’s off to Baltimore, as it picked off Niners QB Brock Purdy four times en route to a 33-19 win. It certainly muddies the power ranking waters and picking games between teams in the upper echelons of the league becomes increasingly hard.

Meanwhile, the Bills and Lions both needed late surges to grab victories. Both teams are very good and very capable but lapses, turnovers, and playing down to their opponents have threatened to derail them numerous times this year. On a more positive note, they did pull out the respective wins and improved their lot considerably. In Detroit’s case, the win sealed its division championship for the first time since 1993. The Bills, who’ve now rattled off three straight wins, have the luxury of controlling their own destiny in the race to the playoffs. A win this week against the Patriots would virtually guarantee them a spot in the postseason, something that seemed pretty dubious only a month ago.

In less promising news, the Chiefs lost another game in Week 16, losing 20-14 to the 7-8 Raiders. It’s apparent that Patrick Mahomes simply doesn’t have the combined cast of characters around him that he’s grown accustomed to. KC is not scoring points at will like we’re used to and is looking pretty damn vulnerable. All that being said, the Chiefs still sit in a fairly comfortable spot in terms of playoff contention, provided the wheels don’t come off completely, and it’s going to be hard to discount them in elimination games.

This week’s choice matchups include the Ravens hosting the Dolphins, the Lions travelling to Dallas, the grudge match that is Vikings vs. Packers, the red-hot Buccaneers taking on the Saints, and the Colts trying to save their season from the brink in a clash with the Raiders.

With our storylines all sorted, let’s check out the Week 17 odds and make some picks!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Cleveland Browns	-360	-7.5	O/U 34.5	New York Jets	Thursday / 8:15 PM
Dallas Cowboys	-270	-6	O/U 53.5	Detroit Lions	Saturday / 8:15 PM
Philadelphia Eagles	-575	-10.5	O/U 48	Arizona Cardinals	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Chicago Bears	-160	-3	O/U 38	Atlanta Falcons	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars	-290	-6.5	O/U 38	Carolina Panthers	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Los Angeles Rams	-240	-5.5	O/U 44.5	New York Giants*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Indianapolis Colts	-190	-3.5	O/U 43.5	Las Vegas Raiders	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Baltimore Ravens	-170	-3	O/U 47	Miami Dolphins	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Buffalo Bills	-800	-13	O/U 40.5	New England Patriots	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-140	-2.5	O/U 42.5	New Orleans Saints	Sunday / 1:00 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-800	-13	O/U 49.5	Washington Commanders*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Houston Texans	-225	-5	O/U 43	Tennessee Titans	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Seattle Seahawks	-180	-3.5	O/U 41	Pittsburgh Steelers	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Kansas City Chiefs	-320	-7	O/U 44.5	Cincinnati Bengals	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Denver Broncos	-185	-3.5	O/U 37.5	Los Angeles Chargers	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Minnesota Vikings	-130	-2	O/U 46	Green Bay Packers	Sunday / 8:15 PM

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Week 17 lines to bet NOW

• Dallas Cowboys – Moneyline: -270

My record picking for, or against, the Cowboys continues to do my head in, but this game is gonna get a lot of attention this week for a number of reasons so I figured I should make a pick on it. Detroit travels to Dallas fresh off its first division title since 1993. Dallas, meanwhile, dropped its Week 16 game against the Dolphins in what was framed as a matchup between teams that couldn’t get it done against good teams. The Cowboys may have retained that distinction but have the good fortune to be hosting this one. Dallas at home is a whole different animal than Dallas on the road, and I’m expecting a bit of a Lions letdown after such a monumental moment for the current franchise.

• Cincinnati Bengals – Moneyline: +270

I don’t mean to pile on the Chiefs, I really don’t, but I do get a sense that maybe the collective football world isn’t as worried about them as they should be. A loss this week to the Bengals would put NFL fans on high alert and set up a dramatic Week 18 for KC. Even with a loss this week, the Chiefs’ playoff chances would still be very good, at 85%. They can afford one more slip before it’s do-or-die, and considering they just lost to a Raiders team that didn’t complete a single pass after the first quarter, you’d have to think Jake Browning and the Bengals pose a legit threat.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Moneyline: -140

The Bucs being red hot in what may be the best kept secret in the NFL. The Baker Mayfield era in Tampa has been met mostly with shrugs but after rattling off four straight wins, the Buccanneers find themselves knocking on the door of a playoff berth. Over their last five, Mayfield has completed 63.6% of his passes for 1,209 yards. But more impressively, has a 11/2 TD-to-INT ratio over that span and has gone turnover-free in Tampa’s last three games. The Bucs will win this one and become an interesting playoff sleeper agent in the NFC.

Week 17 lines to bet LATER

• Green Bay Packers – Moneyline: +110

The home team Vikings will get some cred for hanging around with the Lions for as long as they did, and for Nick Mullens’ 411 yards and two TDs (maybe not for his four INTs though). I see Jordan Love and the Packers coming out ahead here, even without having the cold to their advantage, but you might get more juice for the squeeze by holding back on this one a bit.

Week 17 line that makes me go hmm…

• Los Angeles Chargers– Moneyline: +155

Easton Stick didn’t look awful against the Bills, the offence was more involved the whole game through and the new coach tried some stuff. The combination of all that glowing praise makes me wonder if the Chargers might be able to take advantage of a Broncos team that has quickly gone from exiting success story to disfunction failure who benched QB Russell Wilson last week.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• The Detroit Lions have hit the moneyline in eight of their last 10 away games 🔥
• The New York Giants have scored first in six of their last 19 games 🧊
• The Los Angeles Rams have scored first in six of their last nine away games 🔥
• The Washington Commanders have only hit the moneyline in eight of their last 20 games 🧊
• The Philadelphia Eagles have scored first in 16 of their last 21 games 🔥
• The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in one of their last 10 away games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 17

Here are a few player props I love this week:

• Player Passing Touchdowns Milestones – 2 TD – Joe Flacco: +145

Flacco and the Browns are a great story. Cleveland has lost cornerstone players Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson this year and still owns a 10-5 record thanks in part to Flacco and in large part to its league-best defence. Flacco has at least two passing TDs in four straight games and should be able to produce at that rate against the Jets.

• Touchdown Scorers – Anytime – Jahmyr Gibbs: +120

Gibbs has at least one touchdown in three straight games and has been one of the Lions’ brightest stars of late.

• Player Rushing Yards Milestones – 100 Yards – James Cook : +450

The Bills have been running the ball more effectively since new OC Joe Brady took over. Game script forced them to deviate from that plan slightly against the Chargers, but James Cook’s 179 yards in Buffalo’s huge Week 15 win over the Cowboys can’t be ignored. Expect Buffalo to rely on him heavily this week.

⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐

As the Bills hope to cement their playoff spot this week against the division-rival Patriots, I thought it would be fun to build a Buffalo-centric parlay.

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