Canada faced their first blow of adversity in the 2024 World Junior Hockey Championship on Friday, falling to the host nation Sweden in round-robin action. With both teams being gold medal threats, it’s not the biggest blow in the world, and can even be a positive to have happen at this stage – if approached properly. Thankfully for Canada, they get a recalibration game on New Year’s Eve before they really matter, as they take on Germany, an underdog team that can still push back if you let your guard down.
Bet on Canada vs. Germany
CAN -5000
GER +1000
Canada is heavily favoured in this one. After the shocking and decisive loss for Germany on Friday, the markets were a bit late to react ahead of this game, but opened at an extremely heavy line in Canada’s favour.
Canada vs. Germany odds
| Canada Moneyline Odds | -5000 |
| Germany Moneyline Odds | +1000 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -4.5 (-134), Germany +4.5 (-106) |
| Total Goals line | 7.5 goals (over -125, under -112) |
| Time/Date | Dec. 31, 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: TSN+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About Team Canada (2-1)
Canada lost for the first time in the tournament on Friday and as such, the country is in a hockey crisis once more. As usually happens whenever the World Junior team drops any game, let alone gets eliminated, the discourse splits into two factions – those who say that Canada is losing because they’re being too skilled, too fancy, and not playing simple fundamental hockey, and those who point out that the roster chosen wasn’t the most talented available and that the game that was lost had a 2-0 score.
Yes, we’re having the “maybe they should grit harder” debate after a 2-0 loss. If this is your first rodeo, don’t overthink it, this is just how the country works. The tournament hosts in Sweden proved why they’re legitimate contenders to take home the gold in this one, keeping the game relatively low event but dictating the pace, eventually asserting control with a goal from Canucks prospect Tom Willander to start the second period. Noah Ostlund added some insurance, and Sweden shut it down from there, limiting Canada to just five shots in the third period.
It’ll be interesting to see how Canada responds to this. The correct response would be more offensive aggressiveness, not less, though it’ll be important that players work with each other to create goals rather than developing tunnel vision and trying to solve the issue themselves. While they can probably get through Germany with individual might, it’s now about re-setting the tone ahead of the medal rounds.
About Team Germany (1-2)
Germany has felt the highest of highs and the lowest of lows this week, starting off the tournament with an inspired win against Finland that shocked the world, as it was their first win in 26 times against the fourth-ranked nation. Their game against Sweden, however, was less inspiring, as the difference in quality proved to be the case early and often. Phillipp Dietl was fantastic in goal in the game against Finland and Mattias Bittner was solid for much of the Sweden game, holding the score even at zero for most of the first period. But once Sweden struck sixteen minutes in, there was no locking back, as by the end of the night, they’d pulled away with a 5-0 win.
On Saturday it all fell apart, as Germany got routed by Latvia in a stunner of a game. Despite Germany being the favourites going in, it was Latvia who struck first just two and a half minutes in, and they did not look back, going up 3-0 by the end of the first period and 5-1 by the end of the second. Samuel Schindler and Norwin Panocha did their best to keep the Germans in the fight, but it was all about the Latvians from minute one to minute sixty. Dietl started again for Germany, and while he was far from the only reason the Germans lost, he couldn’t give them the same protection he did in his debut.
Germany, like most underdog teams, tries to win games through the counter-attack. They aren’t overly dangerous offensively, but can’t be taken too lightly, as they’ve already proven in this round-robin. All the same, yesterday was likely a confidence crusher.
Projected Lineups
| Team Canada WJC Lines | Team Germany WJC Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Fraser Minten – Conor Geekie – Jordan Dumais Easton Cowan – Matthew Poitras – Matthew Savoie Owen Allard – Owen Beck – Nate Danielson Carson Rehkopf – Macklin Celebrini – Brayden Yager Matthew Wood Defence Denton Mateychuk – Maveric Lamoureaux Jake Furlong – Noah Warren Jorian Donovan – Oliver Bonk Ty Nelson Starting In Goal Matias Rousseau 2-0-0, 1.00 GAA, 0.958 SV% | Forwards Veit Oswald – Luca Hauf – Eric Hordler Julian Lutz – Roman Ketcher – Mortiz Elias Kevin Bicker – Julius Sumpf – Ralf Rollinger Daniel Assavolyuk – Vadim Schreiner – Linus Brandl Lennard Nieleck Defence Niklas Hubner – Samuel Schindler Phillip Sinn – Jakob Weber Norwin Panocha – Michael Reich Paul Mayer Starting In Goal Matthias Bittner 0-1-0, 5.00 GAA, 0.878 SV% |
- Canadian team NHL Prospects on Canada: Fraser Minten (TOR), Easton Cowan (TOR), Owen Beck (MTL)
- 2024 Draft Eligible prospects on Canada: Macklin Celebrini, Owen Allard, Mathis Rousseau, Samuel St. Hilaire
- Canadian team NHL Prospects on Germany: None
- 2024: Draft Eligible prospects on Germany: Everyone besides Norwin Panocha (BUF), Kevin Bicker (DET), and Julian Lutz (ARI)
Total goals over 7.5
-125
Today’s 2024 World Juniors Gold Medal Odds
Here are the odds to win the 2024 World Junior Hockey Championship, heading into December 31st:
| Country | Odds | Country | Odds | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +187 | Sweden | +200 | Canada | +300 |
| Finland | +1100 | Czech Republic | +1500 | Slovakia | +2000 |
| Germany | +5000 | Switzerland | +10000 | Latvia | +100000 |
| Norway | +200000 |
Top Scorers
Canada’s Top Scorers
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Conor Geekie | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Matthew Wood | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Maveric Lamoureaux | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Germany’s Top Scorers
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Hordler | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Veit Oswald | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Kevin Bicker | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Luca Hauf | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Roman Kechter | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
Wagers To Consider
This is going to be another tough one to play, now that the odds market seems on track to take a big reset after the Germany loss to Latvia. When we previewed Canada’s game against Latvia my general feeling was that the team was capable of winning by a heavy amount and clearing the high goals over on their own (which they did, by a 10-0 tally, despite a 7.5 total goals and 5.5 puck line), but that it’s easier for a standout netminder or defensive performance to deflate a high projection than it is for a low one to be exploded through.
Where this one goes turns into a bit of a game theory scenario. Are Germany closer to the team that faced Latvia, or the team that faced Finland? Are they going to want to play for pride, or did the loss deflate them beyond return? For Canada, are they the team that scored goals by the boatload against the Finns and Latvians, or the team that couldn’t create plays against the Swedes? Do they respond to that last loss by finding a new creative approach and opening things up as a group, or do they show they can “win the right way” and take it easy?
It’s a lot that you have to ask yourself. As far as capability, I don’t have any doubt that Canada can blow this game wide open, taking out their frustrations on a team that’s already been softened up. At the right value, leaning into the Canada revenge game could be a great play, so keep an eye at where the lines land when they launch. But use your judgment and remember that no disparity in talent guarantees a blowout in this tournament, or this game in general. My call? Put a little bit on a big Canada win against the puck line to make it extra interesting, save the more substantial swings for the knockout rounds, and enjoy another New Year’s Eve classic.
