Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 14 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome football fans to Week 14. We are truly in the endgame now as only five weeks remain in the regular season.

It’s becoming cliché for me to start these weekly previews by detailing the quarterback injuries suffered in the previous week’s games, but alas, that was the story of Week 13 once again. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Kenny Pickett and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence left their respective games last week with injuries and their team’s fates now hang in the balance. In Pickett’s case, a high ankle sprain forced him out of the Steelers’ Week 13 loss to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is expecting its second-year passer to miss four games before making his return. This puts the Steelers in a tough spot as getting wins over that span is crucial for a team that currently sits as the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture. Mitch Trubisky now takes over QB duties and his history tells us that it’s going to be tough sledding.

A high ankle sprain also derailed Trevor Lawrence, forcing him out of the game to watch as his Jaguars fell to the Bengals in OT with the first seed in the AFC on the line. Like most teams with serious playoff aspirations, losing their star QB could mean the end of those aspirations entirely. The Jaguars aren’t the same without Lawrence, and they’ll be wishing for a realistic return timetable for their irreplaceable pivot.

Looking ahead to Week 14’s storylines, two marquee matchups stand out immediately. Closer to home, the Buffalo Bills emerge from their bye week prepared to face the Kansas City Chiefs. This is do-or-die time for the Bills, and though I’ve probably typed those words once or twice this year, this time it’s for real. Fans in Buffalo have to hope an extra couple weeks of rest and practice will spurn the team to end the season on a high note. At least the timing of the matchup with the Chiefs is good as KC is stumbling and dealing with several key injuries.

Elsewhere in the upper echelons of the league, the Dallas Cowboys play host to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles arrive in Dallas off the heels of a crushing defeat at the hands of the 49ers in Week 13, raising questions about the health of QB Jalen Hurts and their ability to beat the better teams in the NFL. The Cowboys, meanwhile, needed all four quarters of their Week 13 game to dispatch the Seattle Seahawks. A healthy Geno Smith had a huge game for Seattle and showed the Eagles that Dallas is not impervious.

With our major storylines in hand, let’s get to the numbers and make some Week 14 picks!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-270	-6	O/U 30	New England Patriots	Thursday / 8:15 PM
New Orleans Saints	-235	-5	O/U 37.5	Carolina Panthers	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Detroit Lions	-170	-3	O/U 44	Chicago Bears*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Houston Texans	-220	-4	O/U 33	New York Jets*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Indianapolis Colts	-115	-1	O/U 44	Cincinnati Bengals*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Cleveland Browns	-165	-3	O/U 30.5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Baltimore Ravens	-340	-7	O/U 40	Los Angeles Rams	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Atlanta Falcons	-135	-2.5	O/U 39.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Minnesota Vikings	-155	-3	O/U 40.5	Las Vegas Raiders*	Sunday / 4:25 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-600	-10.5	O/U 46.5	Seattle Seahawks	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Kansas City Chiefs	-125	-1.5	O/U 48.5	Buffalo Bills	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Los Angeles Chargers	-145	-2.5	O/U 44	Denver Broncos	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Dallas Cowboys	-180	-3.5	O/U 52	Philadelphia Eagles	Sunday / 8:20 PM
Green Bay Packers	-400	-8.5	O/U 38	New York Giants*	Monday / 8:15 PM
Miami Dolphins	-850	-13.5	O/U 46.5	Tennessee Titans	Monday / 8:15 PM

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Week 14 lines to bet NOW

• Cincinnati Bengals– Moneyline: -105

If you’ve read Jake’s Takes for a while you’ll know that I can’t resist an unlikely QB hero story, especially one named Jake. In an OT win over the Jaguars, Jake Browning emerged as an unlikely star and captivated the Monday Night Football audience. He finished Monday’s OT win in Jacksonville with 354 passing yards, a touchdown and a 115.5 QB rating on 32-of-37 passing, a stat line that would qualify as great even for Joe Burrow, the quarterback he’s replacing. In fact, Browning’s QB rating has steadily climbed since entering the Bengals’ Week 11 game in relief of Burrow. While his performances are surprising everyone, including his coaches, if Browning can continue to utilize Cinci’s wealth of weapons, there’s no reason to believe his success can’t continue. The Bengals currently sit outside the playoffs at 6-6, but a win over the Colts this week would be huge for their postseason chances. Though some Bengals fans may prefer a better draft pick this year, no one told Jake.

• Buffalo Bills– Moneyline: +105 ⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐

Gonna get a little wild with this one, combining this into my weekly Gold Star Pick. I can feel the facepalms when putting this much faith in the Bills, or having faith in any team in Buffalo for that matter (sorry Sabres fans). But hey, this is the time of year for bold moves and even bolder plays and that’s especially true for the Bills. Coming off their Week 13 bye, the franchise at large has had a little time to breathe, practice, and go back to the drawing board. Much like the Bengals, the Bills currently sit outside the playoffs at 6-6 and absolutely have to make some positive gains in the standings. They are in the midst of their toughest stretch of games in 2023 (Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys) and after letting the Eagles game slip through their fingers, the season hangs by a thread. There are reasons to be positive, however, namely about their chances against KC, but beyond that as well. The Bills are catching the Chiefs at a fairly vulnerable spot. Fresh off a loss to the Packers, Kansas City hosts Buffalo while absorbing injuries to key players, even QB Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a pectoral injury. If the Bills can salvage something from their next two games, they get treated to games against the Chargers and Patriots (two teams who combined for one of the most inept and boring games of all time in Week 13). All that being said, whether the Chiefs were a hundred percent healthy or not is mostly moot, the Bills have to win this game.

• Philadelphia Eagles– Moneyline: +165

I hate picking for or against the Cowboys as the inverse of my pick tends to manifest itself. But I really can’t trust them until they win more important games. So, in a roundabout way this Eagles pick has more to do with Dallas than it does Philly. It’s a big spot, and the fanbases have no love lost for each other. Geno Smith balled out in Dallas last week and made the Cowboys sweat, if Jalen Hurts can turn in a vintage performance and be as clutch as he has been (despite lingering injuries) then I see the Eagles getting the dub here.

Week 14 lines to bet LATER

• Los Angeles Rams– Spread: +7
• Los Angeles Rams– Moneyline: +270

Our favourite sleeper team is back for Week 14 as well as our third 6-6 bubble team pick of the week! The Rams have so many offensive weapons that you can’t count them out of any game. The fact they just put up 36 points against the league’s best defence gives me even more confidence that they can hang around and potentially even take this game outright. L.A. will be poking and prodding at the NFC playoff standings for the latter part of the season and are a fun team to back when healthy. Often underestimated this year, I see this line potentially moving even farther away from them, creating more value.

Week 14 line that makes me go hmm…

• Jacksonville Jaguars– Moneyline: +150

The Browns are getting a ton of leeway here based solely on the fact that Jacksonville is without star QB Trevor Lawrence, however, as I mentioned above, the Rams just put up 36 points on Cleveland so they aren’t exactly coming into this game smelling of roses. To boot, Jags backup QB C.J. Beathard looked pretty good in limited relief of Lawrence, completing 9-of-10 passes for 63 yards. There’s definite potential in a sneaky Jacksonville win here.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• TheLos Angeles Ramshave scored last in 11 of their last 17 games 🔥
• TheBaltimore Ravenshave scored last in six of their last 18 games 🧊
• TheIndianapolis Coltshave hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games 🔥
• TheCincinnati Bengalshave only hit the Team Total Over in three of their last 10 games at home 🧊
• TheDetroit Lionshave hit the Moneyline in eight of their last 10 away games 🔥
• TheChicago Bearshave only hit the Moneyline in five of their last 19 games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 14

Here’s a few player props I love this week:

• Player Defensive Interceptions – Over 0.5 – DaRon Bland: +390

Hey, why not go back to the well with DaRon Bland, after all he paid off big for us in Week 13 with yet another INT. He now has interceptions in four straight games, and with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles this week, big games call for big moments.

• Player Rushing Yards Milestones – 25 Yards – Jake Browning: +310

This is a huge spot for the Bengals and their new QB. Beating the Colts this week would put some serious momentum behind Jake Browning’s attempt to salvage a season thought to be ruined by Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. Browning got it done in the air and with his legs against the Jags and has an even friendlier defence to contend with in Indy.

• Player Passing Yard Milestones – 300 Yards – Josh Allen: +265

Goes without saying that this is the biggest game of the year for the Bills. Coming out of a bye, they’ve had plenty of practice time with new OC Joe Brady and are playing a Chiefs team that’s suffered some key defensive injuries.

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