Jake’s Takes: Your Guide To NFL Week 13 Odds, Betting Mismatches, Props & Trends

Welcome to a (hopefully) lucky Week 13 of the NFL season!

The big story this past week was undoubtedly the instant classic that was the Bills and Eagles clash. A lot of questions were answered in that one while new ones were asked. I have to admit that I might have underestimated Jalen Hurts a little, and he made me pay with some absolutely sterling play. Down 10 points in the fourth quarter, Hurts and the Eagles mounted a comeback that was ultimately sealed in their favour in overtime, much to the chagrin of Buffalo fans who have seen this current incarnation of the Bills unable to seal the deal in big games. Josh Allen’s numbers during the game were exemplary but his costly turnovers continue to haunt him and the Bills at large. Allen now owns an 0-6 record in overtime games, including the playoffs. Buffalo now has a bye week (along with Baltimore, Las Vegas, Chicago, Minnesota, and the Giants) in which to ponder its current predicament. Missing the playoffs is a very real scenario for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to start the year and with games against the Chiefs and Cowboys coming out of the bye, the handwringing is at an all-time high in Bills country.

In other Week 12 stories, the Josh Dobbs success story in Minnesota came crashing down in spectacular fashion after he was picked off four times in an ugly loss to the Bears. The Falcons staked their claim at the top of the NFC South with a win over their fellow divisional aspirants in the Saints. Jacksonville seems to be getting better and better in a mirror reflection of last season. Trevor Lawrence seems to need a decent chunk of the regular season, and a few bat beats to find his game, but he and the Jags are all the better for it.

Speaking of better, it can be said that the Steelers are emphatically better after the departure of OC Matt Canada. Not to pile on the man, but in their first game since his dismissal, Pittsburgh eclipsed 420 yards of offence for the first time all season while outgaining their opponent for the first time also. The Steelers utilized weapons they’ve long had but were perhaps going unappreciated as tight end Pat Freiermuth had nine catches for 120 yards in the game after having a grand total of 60 yards in all their previous games combined this season. Running back Najee Harris also had a good game which is a positive sign for a team which has struggled to establish the run. Now all this positivity comes against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad who’s probably looking towards next year, but the Steelers do have the talent to be a surprising team from here on out.

With some Week 12 storylines in tow and Week 13 firmly in our sights, let’s get to the numbers and make some picks!

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Favourite	M-Line	Spread	Total	Underdog	Day/Time (ET)
Dallas Cowboys	-450	-9	O/U 46.5	Seattle Seahawks	Thursday / 8:15 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers	-260	-5.5	O/U 41	Arizona Cardinals	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Atlanta Falcons	-145	-2.5	O/U 34	New York Jets*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Houston Texans	-192	-3.5	O/U 47	Denver Broncos	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Detroit Lions	-200	-4	O/U 46	New Orleans Saints*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Indianapolis Colts	-120	-1	O/U 43	Tennessee Titans*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Los Angeles Chargers	-270	-6	O/U 40.5	New England Patriots*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Miami Dolphins	-450	-9.5	O/U 50	Washington Commanders*	Sunday / 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-250	-5.5	O/U 37	Carolina Panthers	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Los Angeles Rams	-185	-3.5	O/U 39.5	Cleveland Browns	Sunday / 4:25 PM
San Francisco 49ers	-145	-2.5	O/U 46.5	Philadelphia Eagles*	Sunday / 4:25 PM
Kansas City Chiefs	-290	-6.5	O/U 42	Green Bay Packers*	Sunday / 8:20 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars	-400	-8.5	O/U 38	Cincinnati Bengals	Monday / 8:15 PM

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Week 13 lines to bet NOW

• Denver Broncos– Moneyline: +167

The Broncos are currently in the midst of a five-game winning streak in which they’ve beaten the Chiefs, Bills, and Browns, and they’re STILL 3.5-point underdogs in this week’s game against the Texans. That’s a testament to how the NFL at large has responded to the play of first-year Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been an eye-opening talent in Houston and has a dead in the water Texans franchise back on the map. Fair dues are deserved for Stroud, he’s good, in fact he’s probably great but let’s not let all that adulation distract us from what Denver have been doing lately. Namely, the Broncos are creating turnovers at a crazy rate right now. Across their win streak, Denver has forced 16 turnovers. That’s more turnovers than the majority of NFL teams (18) have all year to this point. In Stroud’s current run of great play, the one constant negative has been his turnovers, which if we’re being honest is perfectly normal and expected from a rookie QB. Stroud and the Texans are poised to be a force for years to come, but let’s not let the bright future cloud the present. Denver is playing crazy football defensively right now and Russell Wilson has turned his Broncos fortunes around. Jump on this line before it’s too late.

• San Francisco 49ers– Moneyline: +145

There aren’t a ton of underdogs I see jumping out at me besides the Broncos so I’m gonna highlight a few favourites here. In a rematch of the 2022 NFC Championship game, the 49ers and Eagles are set to clash in what will be the game of the week. Circumstances are pretty similar to that previous clash for the Eagles who were at the height of their power last year but are very different from San Fran. Brock Purdy went down in the NFC Championship and the Niners were sunk with him. Now Purdy is playing the best football of his life and San Francisco is healthier than it has been in a while. I’m not gonna disrespect Jalen Hurts anymore, and he’ll likely keep his team in this one as much as he can, but I think it’s the Philly defence that ultimately falters here and lets the 49ers play to their strengths and emerge victorious.

• Los Angeles Rams– Moneyline: +185

The Rams have been somewhat of a sleeper team thus far in the season and that’s mostly due to their unfortunate run of injuries. Truth be told the Rams have the up-and-down talent to be in a playoff spot right now if not for their offensive stars going down injured at various points this year. Despite the bumps and bruises, L.A. is on a two-game win streak and is hot on the heels on the Seahawks (losers of two straight) and second place in the division. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams may be banged up but are all playing right now, giving the Rams a wealth of weapons. We all know their opponents this week in the Browns boast a formidable defence, but with their QB situation is up in the air (Dorian Thompson-Robinson is in concussion protocol and semi-retired Joe Flacco may get the start) they wont be able to stem the tide.

Week 13 lines to bet LATER

• New England Patriots– Moneyline: +215

Look, the Patriots are undoubtedly a mess and it’s hard to pick them to win a chowder eating competition these days, let alone a football game. That being said, there are indications that New England is ready to move on from Mac Jones and give the ball to another QB, if at least for one week. News out of Pats practice today is that only Bailey Zappe and rookie Malik Cunningham took part in QB drills in practice. Should a QB change be officially announced, I’d have some interest in a New England pick at home in the cold. The Chargers are on an interminable road trip and already boast a porous defence.

Week 13 line that makes me go hmm…

• Carolina Panthers– Moneyline: +210

I’m a big believer in the so called “dead cat bounce” teams receive when a coach is fired. New coaches and players tend to respond positively, however fleeting the effect is. The Panthers, despite their obvious deficiencies beyond merely coaching, have picked a good spot to engage that bounce here, as the Bucs defence has not been cutting the mustard. I have very little faith in Carolina’s ability beyond this game and it’s clear the Panthers will be cursing not picking C.J. Stroud for a while, but if there is a spot to get some value out of them, and to bank on the mystical forces brought on by a coach firing, this is it.

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Betting trends of the week

Here are a few trends to keep in mind when placing your bets this week:

• TheSeattle Seahawkshave scored last in 12 of their last 18 games 🔥
• TheNew York Jetshave scored first in four of their last 18 games 🧊
• TheDetroit Lionshave hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games 🔥
• TheNew Orleans Saintshave only hit the game total over in five of their last 19 games 🧊
• TheLos Angeles Chargershave scored first in 16 of their last 19 games 🔥
• TheIndianapolis Coltshave scored last in three of their last 16 games 🧊

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Player props to play in Week 13

Here’s a few player props I love this week:

• Player Defensive Interceptions – Over 0.5 – DaRon Bland: +450

Bland set the record for pick-sixes in a single season with his fifth INT turned score on Thanksgiving. He has interceptions in three straight games and four of his last five. It’s a perfect opportunity to feature a rare defensive prop this week.

• Player Passing Yard Milestones – 300 Yards – Jared Goff: +250

Goff is averaging 280 passing yards this year and gets to play in the Superdome this week against a Saints team that’s lost two straight. The situation’s perfect for Goff to have a huge game.

• Player Passing Yard Milestones – 350 Yards – Tua Tagovailoa: +450

Bit of a Hail Mary of sorts here, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Tua and the Dolphins will have a banner day in Washington. Tagovailoa hasn’t passed the 350-yard mark since Miami’s Week 1 shootout win over the Chargers and it’s the Chargers, and their league-worst defence that the Commanders share a lot of traits with. Washington sits in the basement of league defences and has been particularly bad stopping the pass. The Commanders’ 264 passing yards allowed average is a mere 16 yards less than the aforementioned Chargers. If Tua can put up 466 air yards on L.A., he can do 350+ in Washington.

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⭐ Gold Star Pick ⭐

My Gold Star Pick this week is a three-way parlay featuring the same three teams featured in this week’s player props. How’s that for symmetry!?

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