Oddsmakers Bearish On Toronto Raptors’ Futures Markets

It has been a transformative offseason for the Toronto Raptors, and they might not be done overhauling the roster just yet.

The firing of head coach Nick Nurse kicked things off in April, officially signalling that major changes were coming to the organization. That was followed by the departure of point guard Fred VanVleet, who declined his player option with the Raptors to become a free agent. He then signed a lucrative three-year, $128.5 million contract with the Houston Rockets.

Toronto responded by signing veteran point guard Dennis Schroder to a two-year deal to fill the void. But there are questions about the health of his Achilles’ tendon leading up the FIBA Basketball World Cup. He seems determined to suit up for Germany despite lingering soreness, and if he reaggravates the injury, it could leave a gaping hole at the position for the Raptors come October.

Trade rumours are still swirling around Pascal Siakam and OG Anuboby. The Raptors reportedly turned down a trade offer from the Atlanta Hawks that would’ve sent De’Andre Hunter, AJ Griffin and draft compensation back the other way to Toronto. Siakam has one year remaining on his current contract and he’s on the books for just under $39 million this season. His unwillingness to sign a contract extension with Atlanta after a potential deal was rumoured to be a dealbreaker.

Anunoby is in a similar boat. He’s owed $18.6 million in 2023-34 and he’ll likely decline his $19.9 million player option for the following season. He finished seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season and even received one second-place vote. Anunoby is unquestionably the best defender on the roster that routinely matches up against the top wing players in the league.

Masai Ujiri and his front office prioritized re-signing centre Jakob Poeltl to a four-year, $80 million deal in an attempt to bolster the team’s interior defence. It came a huge cost, though, and he’s far from a dominant offensive player (13.1 points per game last season).

So what direction is this team heading?

We don’t know yet, and that makes it incredibly difficult to assess Toronto from a betting perspective in mid-August. Oddsmakers at bet365 are bearish on Toronto’s chances of being competitive this season. The Raptors are a long +8000 to win the NBA Championship, and bet365 is currently boosting those odds to +10000. Their season win total has been set at 36.5 (-105 on the over, -115 on the under), indicating the team is in for a long year and nowhere near contention. That number could plummet if Siakam and/or Anunoby are moved prior to the start of the season and the organization decides to build for the future around Scottie Barnes.

	NBA title	Season win total	To win conference	To win in-season tournament
Toronto Raptors	+8000	36.5 (-105 over, -115 under)	+2800	+4000

Awards props

Are any players on the current roster worth considering for awards props for the upcoming season?

Siakam (+6000) is the only player with odds at bet365 in the MVP race. Twenty-one players have shorter odds than the Raptors forward who is coming off his best individual season, averaging 24.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game in 2022-23. Denver big man Nikola Jokic (+450) has the shortest odds of winning MVP.

New Raptors bench boss Darko Rajaković is a long shot to win Coach of the Year with +5000 odds. The Serbian previously served in assistant roles with the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Raptors would have to drastically exceed their expectations this year in order for him to have a chance of winning the award.

Toronto selected Gradey Dick 13th overall out of Kansas in this year’s draft and he has long +4000 odds to win Rookie of the Year. Dick will begin the year coming off the bench (barring any significant injuries or trades) and likely won’t play significant minutes during his inaugural campaign. Gary Trent Jr. should hog the majority of minutes off the bench, which could make him an outside candidate for the Sixth Man of the Year Award (+3300), especially in a contract year.

Perhaps the best futures play to consider this year is Anunoby’s chances of winning Defensive Player of the Year (+2500). The wing led the NBA in steals with 128 last season and he became just the second Raptors player ever to earn all-defensive team honours (Kawhi Leonard was the other). Thirteen players have better odds than Anunoby, but he’s a solid long shot to consider as he enters his prime years.