What did we say last week? The Toronto Argonauts were going to take the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to Poundtown. What did the Boatmen do? The Boatmen sacked Zach Collaros so often that you would’ve thought his spine had been realigned the way he was walking afterward. Hopefully, you put your Carbon Tax Rebate to good use by hammering the Argos’ +4.5 point spread. After all, the CFL will be much harder to bet over the next couple of weeks.
You might be asking why that is so. The easy answer is this:
Most teams have more or less secured their playoff spots. Yes, some teams might play for seeding. Others will opt to rest their players. The thing about the CFL, though, is the injury reports are lacking and can change on a whimper. Since the league seems to be more “traditionalist” in nature, it doesn’t care about the bettors as much as it probably should.
As such, unless you’re a die-hard fan who follows all the teams’ beat reporters and keeps up-to-date with the latest rumours and innuendo in the CFL, you’ll most likely be coloured shocked when you tune into the game to find out so and so and such and such, who weren’t supposed to be playing, are playing.
Of course, that can be very frustrating, which is why we warn you to wager accordingly. As always, odds are subject to change, but this is ever so more the truth in the last two weeks of the season. If a line changes drastically from what we’ve put as the best line/number available, the chances are someone is either sitting out the game or an unexpected player will be starting.
Despite all these bogus guessing games, we will still briefly preview this week’s action for the brave souls who want to throw caution to the wind.
Before we give you our picks for this three-game slate, take a peak at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| Montreal Alouettes | +200 | +180 | +170 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +225 | +210 | +200 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +375 | +440 | +500 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +400 | +450 | +700 |
| BC Lions | +750 | +725 | +900 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +1500 | +1450 | +1800 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED |
| Edmonton Elks | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED |
| Calgary Stampeders | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED | ELIMINATED |
Calgary Stampeders @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – October 18
Best moneyline odds: Stampeders +155 @ NorthStar Bets, Tiger-Cats -150 @ BetMGM
Best spread odds: Stampeders +4 (-110 @ TonyBet), Tiger-Cats -2.5 (-110 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-120 @ Bet99), Under 51.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
Alright, the week starts off with an exciting matchup between two teams who have nothing to lose. Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. At this point, they’re just playing to play. Some of the younger players will be trying to jockey for roster spots next year. Others will be trying to finish their 2024 on a higher note.
Realistically speaking, both of these teams are evenly matched. Yeah, we know the Ticats have the edge on the offensive side of the ball, but who knows how long Bo Levi Mitchell and other Ticats starters will be playing? If we knew for a fact that they’d be playing the full game, we’d like the Ticats’ chances of romping the Stampeders. That said, stuff gets unpredictable when the second and third stringers start to play. That’s probably why most of the sharp bettors are avoiding this week’s action.
However, our research (as of Wednesday morning) strongly suggests that Calgary will roll out all its starters on both sides of the ball for the WHOLE game. If that’s the case, we think the team will be playing with a purpose.
Although we’ve heard the “playing with a purpose” line all season long in Calgary, it might actually mean something in a throwaway game that no one really cares about.
Will it be a dominant victory or a covering of the spread? Probably not. If you bet Calgary, you’ll have to sweat it. However, a little sweat never hurt anyone if we’re just throwing pizza money on the game.
Pick: Give us the Stampeders’ +4 (-110 @ TonyBet) point spread.
Bet on Stampeders vs. Tiger-Cats
Ottawa Redblacks @ Toronto Argonauts – October 19
Best moneyline odds: Redblacks +185 @ bet365, Argonauts -185 @ BetMGM
Best spread odds: Redblacks +4.5 (-105 @ bet365), Argonauts -3.5 (-110 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets), Under 49.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
Okay, from what we’ve heard, it sounds like Toronto will roll with some, if not all, of its starters. Argos running back Ka’Deem Carey might be out, though. Nevertheless, it looks like the Argos want to lock up the second-place spot in the East Division.
If you’ll recall, Ottawa has been a thorn in Toronto’s side all season. For whatever reason, the Argos seem to play down to the Redblacks. Many of the CFL ‘cappers we like to fade believe Week 20’s matchup between the provincial rivals will be much of the same thing.
That said, we do feel like Toronto is ready to empty the tank and totally destroy a team so it can start resting its starters halfway through the third quarter.
What better team to do that against than the Redblacks? After all, it’s hard to make a good case for Ottawa to cover the spread, let alone beat Toronto, other than the fact that some might argue that “Ottawa needs to win.”
Yeah, of course, the Redblacks NEED to win. Will that happen? In today’s economy… Hell no!
Pick: Give us the Argonauts’ -3.5 (-110 @ BetMGM) point spread.
Montreal Alouettes @ British Columbia Lions – October 19
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes +115 @ bet365, Lions -105 @ BetMGM
Best spread odds: Alouettes +1.5 (+100 @ bet365), Lions +1.5 (-115 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 46.5 points (-110 @ BetMGM), Under 48.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
This will be the game that you’ll really have to pay attention to regarding the injury report, especially if you’re planning to bet on the Alouettes. More or less, Montreal has first place in the East locked up. Is it worth throwing feeding injury-prone quarterback Cody Fajardo to be fed upon by the Lions?
On the other hand, the Lions have been hot garbage lately; even “superstar” quarterback Nathan Rourke has left a lot to be desired. As such, he’ll see the bench, and Vernon Adams Jr. will get to start. Unlike the Pittsburgh Steelers’ dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields, Rourke probably deserves to be benched.
Despite what some might say, we’ve always viewed VAJ as one of the CFL’s most underappreciated quarterbacks. Much like Justin Fields of the NFL’s Pittsburgh Steelers, the problem hasn’t necessarily been his play; it’s been the play of those around him. It’s becoming clearer by the day that the Lions’ wide receiver corps is “mid” at best. There’s only so much a QB can do to open up the passing game. After that, it’s up to the receivers, especially those in the slot, to run good routes and put themselves in positions to make big plays. Heck, some yards after contact wouldn’t be a lot to ask for, either.
Anyway, that’s not happening right now, but the fact that VAJ can use his legs to open the defence up on the ground makes us feel more comfortable trusting BC’s passing game.
Now, if the Lions get to play against second and third-stringers for most of the game, there’s no reason why BC can’t beat Montreal. Of course, that’s unless BC Lions’ head coach, Rick Campbell, opts to employ the same strategy and utilize his bench warmers.
Either way, we’re willing to roll the dice on this one.
Pick: Give us the Lions’ +1.5 (-115 @ BetMGM) point spread.
