Jesus, take the wheel because the NFL is starting to test everyone’s fandom. Teams that were supposed to be good and cash their win totals easily suck the big kahunas. Coaches are getting fired because people within the organization got excited about a quarterback whose better days are well in the past. A team that looked to be something special has fallen flat on its face.
Nevertheless, lost in the wayside of semantics is the fact that logic sometimes beats reason, especially when you’re betting.
Suppose you’ve been following our CFL betting previews throughout the season. In that case, a big point we’ve been trying to push is NOT to overreact to specific outcomes unless you’re betting the OVER on Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge’s total bases props. In that case, it’s okay to call Judge a FOOKING BUM in the #Postseason. The dude is a more enormous waste of money than your old eHarmony subscription.
All jokes aside, that’s what the linemakers anticipate most players to do: Overreact to last week’s outcomes.
How to Fight Your Emotions As A Bettor
Now, in some cases, it’s okay to be weary of inconsistent teams. That said, the first thing you SHOULDN’T do is bet against them, especially if the line is so attractive that it’s begging you to hit that confirm button. Instead, those games should immediately go into your “Lines To Avoid” section. There are 15 other games to bet on; you don’t need to focus on the one that’s most likely to screw you over.
The reason why we’re saying this is because we see so many ‘cappers making this mistake. They say they’re “professionals,” but they’re showing us why they’re FOOKING NEWBS. The good thing, though, is everyone makes this mistake, even yours truly at CSB. When that happens, the best thing you can do is take accountability, call yourself out on your BS, and adjust accordingly.
Contrary to popular belief, you don’t learn faster when you’re on fire. That mindset only leads to impending doom. You learn so much more from a loss. For instance, don’t bet on Aaron FOOKING Judge to do 💩 in the playoffs.
So, always track your bets and monitor certain angles. If you have a profitable system that’s yielded positive results over a large sample size, trust it. Going against it will come back to haunt you in the long run.
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | Spread (bet365) |
| Oct 10 | 8:15 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | 49ers -3.5 |
| Oct 13 | 9:30 AM | Jaguars @ Bears | Bears -2 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Colts @ Titans | Colts -1 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Browns @ Eagles | Eagles -8.5 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Packers | Packers -5 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Commanders @ Ravens | Ravens -6.5 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Buccaneers @ Saints | Buccaneers -2.5 |
| Oct 13 | 1:00 PM | Texans @ Patriots | Texans -7 |
| Oct 13 | 4:05 PM | Chargers @ Broncos | Chargers -3 |
| Oct 13 | 4:05 PM | Steelers @ Raiders | Steelers -3 |
| Oct 13 | 4:25 PM | Falcons @ Panthers | Falcons -6.5 |
| Oct 13 | 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cowboys | Lions -3.5 |
Week 6 Storylines To Watch
Ride The Lightning
🚨INSANE PHOTO🚨
Photo above the Pittsburgh #Steelers stadium last night of the LIGHTNING STRIKING.
ONE OF THE COOLEST PHOTOS YOU WILL EVER SEE.
(Via @DaveDiCello / @TheStandard412) pic.twitter.com/8nEIw4ieuX
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 7, 2024
Last week’s Sunday Night Football matchup was everything fans hoped it would be. That’s, of course, if you take out the long lightning delay. When the game did get going, the Dallas Cowboys exploited the Steelers’ secondary. Pittsburgh tried to run the ball against Dallas’ banged-up defence, and it worked. Nevertheless, Steelers’ QB1 (for now) Justin Fields couldn’t get the passing game going. It didn’t help that his best receiver, George Pickens, ran some lazy routes.
Nevertheless, even though the Cowboys managed to exploit Pittsburgh’s secondary, the D-line and the linebacking core made some big plays, including forcing a goalline turnover.
With the Steelers falling to 3-2 and losing its sole lead in the AFC North, the next question becomes: How will the Steelers respond? Will the team ride the proverbial lightning or stoically see this new obstacle as another way to push forward?
On the other hand, it’ll be interesting to see if the Cowboys can keep egging out these scrappy wins. It wasn’t pretty, but when the bell rang, Dallas’ key playmakers were able to get the job done.
Fight Fire With Fire
I got receipts.🧾
Since Aaron Rodgers has conveniently forgotten that he has power, let’s take a look at all the moves the Jets made exclusively for Rodgers.
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) October 10, 2024
After the New York Jets lost to the Vikings in London, the front office thought it’d be an excellent time to eliminate head coach Robert Saleh. Although a specific radio host suggested Saleh was sacked for his political views, we’re willing to bet that he and the old man, Aaron Rodgers, weren’t exactly seeing eye-to-eye regarding how to approach winning football games.
For whatever reason, the offence never seemed to get off the ground. It would show flashes of what it could have been, but ultimately, the playcalling and execution from the players were never there. Rodgers played a big part in New York’s crappy start, but unfortunately for Saleh, it’s much easier to get rid of the head coach than it is to get rid of the team’s starting “star” quarterback, especially when there’s no one waiting to take over the role.
That’s not to say the Jets’ season is over, as many analysts say. The team still has a chance to be competitive. It’s just a matter of everyone taking accountability for their actions and putting the work into getting better on the field as opposed to whining like a little 🐶 on The Pat McAfee Show.
Harvester of Sorrow
Stefan Diggs and his new Houston Texans teammates became the 2 in the Buffalo Bills’ 3-2 record. After the game, Diggs awkwardly declined a handshake with his old pal Josh Allen. That shows us how much of a disconnect there truly was between the two. We can’t help but wonder where their paths will take them as they venture through the sands of time.
The Bills should win the AFC East, for all intents and purposes. That being said, Buffalo will have to show up when the lights shine the brightest, as the Jets will have something to prove this week on Monday Night Football.
The Texans have so much potential. If the team can sort out some of its defensive issues and beef up the O-Line before the trade deadline, Houston could be your dark horse team to win the Super Bowl. We honestly think Stroud and Co. are that good.
Lines To BET NOW
- New York Jets +2.5 (-105 @ Bet99): Everyone in the whole wide world seems to be betting against the dysfunctional Jets, which makes sense. The team just controversially fired its head coach. Its “franchise quarterback” has been acting like a diva. The team is in shambles. Nevertheless, why aren’t the Buffalo Bills bigger favourites on the road? The linemakers only made the Bills -2.5. That line should be closer to -4. And have you noticed how the -2.5 line has held throughout the week? If Buffalo is taking money like there’s no tomorrow, the line should’ve at least gone to -3.5. Something tells us the books are afraid of the “wise guys” and what they would do with such a good line. Although this is an ugly bet in every sense of the meaning, it’s hard to ignore what the bookies are trying to tell us. Are we suckers for taking the bait? Only time will tell, but given the chance, we’d take Jets +2.5 10 times out of 10, no questions asked.
- Pittsburgh Steelers ML (-160 @ bet365): You won’t see this every day, so drink it in, man. We will take a “chalky play” and back the Steelers to beat the Raiders. Typically, we’d lay the points, but we have it on high authority that a lot of sharps have hammered Pittsburgh’s moneyline. Usually, in a spot like this, sharps would be backing the Raiders. Nevertheless, the bandwagoners are turning on the Steelers, and we wouldn’t be shocked if a lot of the “fake sharps” started taking Las Vegas as their “Upset of The Week.” Of course, if you don’t want to drink all that juice, you could take the Steelers’ -3 spread, but we know a lot of people will get rid of half a point and pay a hefty price of anywhere from -135 to -140. For an extra 20 to 25 cents, we’d rather take the moneyline.
Lines To WATCH
- Detroit Lions -2.5 (-125 @ Proline+): We don’t know about you guys, but the “We ‘Dem Boyz” bandwagoners have regained the strength to sing Dallas’ praises. That being said, how in the hell did the Cowboys open as +2.5 ‘dogs at home? Something ain’t right, Cheeko. We ain’t buying the hype. Nevertheless, we’d like to see how the public approaches this game and if the sharps will look to fade the public.
- Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110 @ BetMGM): The linemakers must really hate Joe Flacco and the Colts because it’s downright DISRESPECTFUL to make the Titans -2.5 favourites. The team is outright trash, even if the Steelers’ sloppy second starts to have some semblance of a career resurgence. Yet, the bookies put this line up in the market, knowing full well that the public would back the Colts wholeheartedly. That tells you all you need to know. The only question we have is whether the sharps bite on this line.
Line To Avoid
- Washington Commanders +6.5 (-110 @ bet365): Something doesn’t sit right with us about the 4-1 Commanders being a +7 ‘dog on some books against the 3-2 Baltimore Ravens. This spread should be a lot closer. Yet, it isn’t. Do we think the Commanders are overhyped? Yes! Do we think the Ravens can cover such a large spread? That’s tough. Not to mention, the sharps are on both sides of the spread, which makes it even harder to choose a side. For that reason, we’re going to avoid this game altogether.
TWO MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots) OVER 161.5 passing yards (-115 @ BetMGM): Oh, yes, we know this is a dicey play. A rookie making his first start against a good team in Houston that’ll probably rip Maye’s O-Line to pieces is not one where you’d expect him to succeed. However, the Action Network Pro’s prop projector has this line projected closer to 195, giving us an almost 16% edge. We’ll roll the dice on this prop and see what happens.
- CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) UNDER 82.5 receiving yards (+105 @ bet365): If the Detroit Lions want to succeed against Dallas, it’s imperative that the Lions shut down Lamb. Although we don’t trust Detroit’s secondary, the Action Network Pro’s prop projector has Lamb’s final stat line closer to 76 yards, giving us a 13% edge. The number may be “unlucky,” but we’re apt to test the theory. Let’s ride!
