Edmonton’s “Cup or bust” mindset heading into the 2023-24 season didn’t end with a Stanley Cup championship, as they fell just one goal short in Game 7. However, instead of tearing things down, they made key additions and are back to finish the job in 2024-25.
In the betting market, the Oilers are projected to be five points better than the next-best team in the league and nine points ahead of the top team in the Pacific Division. This positions Edmonton as the favourite to win not only their division but also the Western Conference and the Presidents’ Trophy.
Most importantly, the Oilers are favoured to capture the Stanley Cup.
| Oilers Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
| Regular Season Points | Total: 108.5 Over: -105 Under: -115 | Total: 108.5 Over: -110 Under: -110 |
| Playoffs | Yes: -1400 No: +750 | Yes: -1400 No: +750 |
| Pacific Division | +105 | +100 |
| Western Conference | +350 | +350 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +800 | +800 |
Last Season
The Oilers hit rock bottom in early November, suffering a 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks that dropped them to 31st in the league with a 2-9-1 record. Despite this, they redeemed themselves with a strong 104-point finish. However, after entering the playoffs on a high note with a relatively easy victory in the first round, the Oilers soon found themselves in tough situations, falling behind 2-1, 2-1, and 3-1 in the subsequent rounds. While they managed to tie each of those series, going down 0-3 in the final proved to be too much to overcome.
Offence
No team has scored more goals per 60 minutes than Edmonton (3.63) over the past three seasons, and once again, the Oilers stood out as one of the league’s top offensive teams. Last season, under head coach Kris Knoblauch, Edmonton ranked second in goals per 60 minutes at both 5-on-5 and on the power play, while also finishing first in expected goals by a wide margin.
Connor McDavid saw his goal total cut in half, dropping from 64 to 32, but he still finished third in scoring and delivered an even more impressive performance in the playoffs. McDavid recorded 132 points, becoming the first player since Wayne Gretzky to achieve 100 assists in a single season. He then broke Gretzky’s record with 34 assists in a single postseason. Sportsbooks, like bet365, have McDavid listed at 129.5 points and 47.5 goals heading into this season.
The Oilers’ captain will have 50-goal scorer Zach Hyman skating alongside him as he has for the past three seasons. It has worked out well for both players so far, but 2023-24 was the first time Hyman sniffed 50 goals and sportsbooks have his regular season total set at 43.5 goals heading into 2024-25. However, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins might be able to pick up some of the slack given that he put up 37 fewer points last season (67) than he did the season before (104). Sportsbooks have him listed at 81.5 regular season points.
Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl recorded his fifth 40-plus goal season in the last five campaigns, but sportsbooks have him listed at 50.5 goals because it was the first time he failed to hit the 50-goal mark in the last three seasons. Draisaitl also hit the 100-point mark for the fifth time in his career. In fact, he scored 105 points or more in each of those seasons and the prospect of having or or two new scoring wingers to play with has sportsbooks setting his regular season total at 110.5 points.
| Player | Regular Season Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
| Connor McDavid | 129.5 | -130 | +100 | bet365 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 110.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Evan Bouchard | 82.5 | -130 | +100 | bet365 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 81.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Zach Hyman | 75.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
| Jeff Skinner | 64.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
It’ll probably take some time for Draisaitl to develop chemistry with Viktor Arvidsson and/or Jeff Skinner, but the trio certainly has potential to be extremely impactful for Edmonton. Both players have flaws, particularly on defence, but no one can deny they possess elite talent. Arvidsson is a former 30-goal scorer, having hit the mark twice, but he’s had trouble staying healthy. Skinner has never sniffed the playoffs, and was bought out by his former club, but he’s scored 30-plus goals six times and has even hit the 40-goal mark once in his career.
Down the lineup, Edmonton is looking for a bounce-back season from former 20-goal scorer Connor Brown, who went 45 games without scoring last season, and a full season from Adam Henrique, but the team did sacrifice its overall defence for offence by moving out Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway, and Warren Foegele.
Defence
Edmonton finished 10th in goals against per 60 minutes (all situations), which is impressive when you consider that ranked 30th a month into the season. The Oilers ranked fifth in goals against (per 60) under Knoblauch and they also ranked among the top 10 in expected goals against. Only one team allowed fewer shots at 5-on-5 on a per 60-minute basis.
Evan Bouchard’s ice-time jumped to 23 minutes per game last season and he doubled his production, scoring 82 points in 81 games playing mostly alongside Mattias Ekholm, who also set career highs in goals (11) and points (45). Bouchard’s stock has risen so high that he has the fourth-best Norris Trophy odds (7/1) at bet365 and he has the underlying metrics to back it up. According to Natural Stat Trick, Bouchard and Ekholm controlled more than 60 percent of the high danger shots and goals when they were on the ice together at 5-on-5 last season and they were just as dominant in the playoffs.
Edmonton ranked 15th on the penalty kill in the regular season, but they successfully killed off 94.29% of the penalties they took during their run to the Stanley Cup Final. The team did lose some good penalty killers, but Mattias Ekholm can take a much bigger role on the penalty kill, and I’m not as critical of Darnell Nurse’s game as many others. Edmonton is also hoping that Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher will be useful additions.
Goaltending
It’s wild to remember that Jack Campbell started four of the Oilers’ first six games last season. After five games, he ranked dead last in the league for goals saved above expected, while Stuart Skinner also struggled through his first six starts. Campbell was sent to the minors and never returned, while Skinner took over and turned his game around, finishing the season with a .913 save percentage and saving about 21 goals above average in his final 51 games. Calvin Pickard also provided stability as a backup.
Of course, Skinner did struggle in the playoffs at times, which resulted in him sitting out for a short time, but the reset did him good. Skinner ended up being a big reason that Edmonton made it as far as it did in the playoffs, and his save percentage (.897) doesn’t do him justice. Only a handful of goaltenders were better than Skinner was under Knoblauch, and his reputation would have been much different had he and the Oilers not started the year so poorly.
Edmonton Oilers To Win Pacific Division
Prediction
Edmonton basically punted on the first month of the season and still finished with 104 points in 2023-24, so it doesn’t come as a surprise to us that our model is projecting a 110-point finish for the Oilers in 2024-25. The model is extremely bullish on Edmonton winning the Pacific Division this season, giving the team nearly a 67% chance.
