Betting on the CFL is like trying to play God with Mother Nature. You can’t control the weather. Instead, you can only study it and make projections based on your empirical data. After that, whatever happens, happens.
In Week 17, we decided to die on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats suck hill. For the first half, the BC Lions helped to vindicate our assertions. In the second half, the Ticats rose from the dead like Lazarus to beat BC in overtime. We’re not sure what to make of the comeback, but we’ll give credit where it’s due: Ticats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell played out of this world. If Hamilton somehow happens to make the playoffs, Mitchell should be at the top of the MVP voting. The guy has had such an up-and-down season but has been clutch when it matters the most. Unfortunately, the Ticats might be in for a rude awakening in Week 18, so hold your applause.
Speaking of rude awakenings, the Ottawa Redblacks took an excellent kick to the nuts last week, courtesy of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. If that guy from Spongebob watched Redblacks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli throw the ball around like a drunkard pretending to be Doug Flutie, he might’ve been tempted to say, “Oh brother, this guy stinks!” Hopefully, a sober approach for the Redblacks in Week 19 will yield a win. For now, Ontario’s third CFL team gets a bye week to wallow in self-pity.
From sober to sombre.
The truth hurts, and the fact of the matter is that the Edmonton Elks aren’t as good as some thought the team was. We’re not going to say we told you so. Instead, we ask you to see things for what they are and reevaluate the finer details. After all, in Week 18, you damn well know the new public darlings, the Saskatchewan Roughriders, will be expected to play as well as the 1997 Toronto Argonauts did and get bet as such. It’s never too late to jump back on Edmonton’s bandwagon. Unless you’re a whiny little 🐶 that’s too scared to embark on their own path.
As you can see, we did a lot of foreshadowing in the introduction. Of course, we know you want to see what our picks actually are, but before you do, take a peek at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| Montreal Alouettes | +180 | +185 | +160 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +225 | +225 | +230 |
| BC Lions | +500 | +475 | +450 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +600 | +640 | +1200 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +650 | +640 | +850 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +850 | +900 | +1600 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +2800 | +2900 | +5000 |
| Edmonton Elks | +12500 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +15000 | +10000 | +15000 |
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – October 4
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers -188 @ Betway, Tiger-Cats +170 @ Bet99
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers -3.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle), Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-118 @ TonyBet)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 50 points (-110 @ Pinnacle)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have been on absolute fire lately. Blue Bombers quarterback Zach Collaros had a game to remember in Week 17, even if he took a few hard hits. Typically, we would be looking to fade a team like Winnipeg that came off one of its best games of the season. That said, the Ticats are also coming off a huge come-from-behind win in a game Hamilton should’ve never gotten back into, even if Mitchell decided to ball out in the second half.
As such, we can see the public being split on this game. By that, we mean there’ll be bets on both the Ticats and Blue Bombers spreads. In games like these, we tend to lean to the better team. If we’re being honest, the Blue Bombers’ best game > the Ticats’ best game. Collaros (more experienced in big spots) > Mitchell. Blue Bombers’ defence > Ticats’ defence (not even close).
It’s too early for the Blue Bombers to sit their starters. There are still a few weeks to go in the season, so Winnipeg SHOULD be at full strength. The line opened at Winnipeg -4.5 and some books like TonyBet offered Winnipeg at -5.5. For people who are sold on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, getting the Ticats at +5.5 is a pretty good deal, especially since the game will be at Tim Hortons Field, which looks like it’ll be sold out.
Nevertheless, we’re not buying into the Ticats’ Cinderella story. The Detroit Tigers already took the cake on that one.
Pick: Give us the Blue Bombers -3.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle) point spread.
Bet on Blue Bombers vs. Tiger-Cats
Calgary Stampeders @ BC Lions – October 4
Best moneyline odds: Stampeders +300 @ Proline+, Lions -350 @ Betway
Best spread odds: Stampeders +9.5 (-110 @ TonyBet), Lions -7.5 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
Best over/under odds: Over 53 points (-108 @ Pinnacle), Under 53.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets)
After the Lions’ shocking collapse against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 17, many people asked, “How do you come back from that?”
Usually, when such questions are pondered, the public doesn’t trust the team in question. In this case, we don’t blame them for being so sus about the Lions. One week, BC can look like the best team in the league. Nathan Rourke makes things look easy. The next week, the Lions can look like the worst team ever. BC is the Jekyll-and-Hyde of the CFL.
That said, there’s simply too much talent for the Lions to roll over and call it a day. If there was ever a time for any team in the CFL to have a statement game, it’s the Lions in Week 18.
We could discuss the finer aspects of this game, but we’d be wasting our time. If BC wants to be taken seriously, the team has to absolutely UNLOAD on Calgary this weekend. Anything less than a cover is a disappointment in our books.
Pick: Give us the Lions -7.5 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets) point spread.
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Edmonton Elks – October 5
Best moneyline odds: Roughriders -130 @ Betway, Elks +126 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Roughriders -2.5 (-105 @ bet365), Elks +2.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-106 @ Proline+), Under 50.5 points (-108 @ Pinnacle)
In the span of two weeks, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have turned into the fictitious boogeymen of the CFL. Some betting analysts, who admittedly have a soft spot for the Roughriders, have said that you don’t want to run into the team. However, we’d argue that Sasky isn’t as scary as some suggest.
Honestly, the Elks might be able to exploit the Roughrider secondary. If Edmonton’s passing game gets going, Sasky must respect the run. That opens up the Elks to roll out a dynamic offence and possibly win the time of possession battle.
Yes, Edmonton’s defence is trash, which is why we’re praying that the Elks can turn those hypothetical long drives into points, preferably touchdowns. We’re not sold on the Roughriders putting up a gazillion points, especially with how inconsistent some of the Roughriders’ key skilled players have been throughout the season.
In terms of the price, Sasky -2.5 is probably where the line should be. You’re not getting a ton of value. That said, when the linemakers play it safe, that’s their way of saying the game is a toss-up.
Pick: Give us the Elks +2.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle) point spread.
