Winnipeg is still a tough contender in the Western Conference, but the betting market expects the Jets to regress in 2024-25, projecting a mid-90s point finish.
| Winnipeg Jets 2024-25 Futures | Sports Interaction | bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Points | Total: 95.5 Over: -115 Under: -105 | Total: 81.5 Over: -115 Under: -105 |
| Playoffs | Yes: -185 No: +150 | Yes: -180 No: +145 |
| Central Division | +800 | +600 |
| Western Conference | +1200 | +1200 |
| Win Stanley Cup | +2800 | +2500 |
Last Season
The general consensus was that the Jets were a 90-point, fringe playoff team, but they finished second in the Western Conference with 110 points. However, it was closer to the original expectation when it came playoff time: the Jets were booted from the first round in five games despite winning Game 1.
Offence
Since 2021-22, Winnipeg ranks 19th in goals per game, placing 17th, 21st, and 15th in goals per 60 minutes over the last three seasons. The Jets rely on a scoring-by-committee approach, but Kyle Connor remains the only consistent 30-goal scorer, hitting that mark in every season where he’s played at least 65 games. In 2021-22, Connor netted 47 goals in 79 games, but his total dropped to 31 the following year despite playing all 82 games. Last season, he scored 34 goals in 65 games, projecting to over 40 in a full season. However, sportsbooks have set his 2024-25 total at 36.5 goals.
| Player | Points | Over | Under | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 78.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Mark Scheifele | 70.5 | -115 | -105 | bet365 |
| Josh Morrissey | 68.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 575.5 | -110 | -110 | bet365 |
Mark Scheifele had a standout 40-goal season two years ago, but his usual output is closer to Connor’s baseline. While Scheifele could reach 40 goals again, Connor is the only player capable of surpassing 50. Bet365 has Scheifele’s goal total for the upcoming season set at 27.5, which seems low, given his scoring ability. Although his shot volume dropped significantly last season and his shooting percentage was the lowest since 2016-17, he’s still capable of scoring 30-plus goals, barring injury, despite being on the wrong side of 30.
Gabriel Vilardi is another player that the betting market could be underestimating, but 26.5 goals might be fair for a player who hasn’t played more than 63 games in a single season and has back issues going back to his junior days. That said, he’s scored at 30-plus goal pace over his last 110 games. Additionally, Nikolaj Ehlers had back-to-back seasons in which he scored 0.45 goals per game, but two seasons have passed since then and he’s getting considerably fewer minutes of playing time.
The betting market might underestimate Gabriel Vilardi, but a projection of 26.5 goals seems reasonable. This is especially true considering his history of not playing more than 63 games in a season and ongoing back issues dating back to his junior career. However, he has been on a 30-plus goal pace over his last 110 games. Meanwhile, Nikolaj Ehlers averaged 0.45 goals per game for two consecutive seasons, but he has since seen a significant drop in playing time and hasn’t reached that level in the last two years.
Cole Perfetti scored 19 goals and 38 points in 71 games in a breakout campaign last season, but he dressed in just one of Winnipeg’s five playoff games, and he missed a portion of the team’s training camp due to contract negotiations. Additionally, Brad Lambert, Winnipeg’s first-round pick in 2022, still had a chance to make the team and line up behind Scheifele in the Jets’ top six. Lambert was initially seen as a top-10 talent, but his stock tanked, and he fell to 30th.
Defence
Only one team allowed fewer goals than Winnipeg last season, and that team won the Stanley Cup. Of course, that is due in large part to goaltending, but the Jets were a good defensive team overall. According to Evolving Hockey, Winnipeg ranked among the top ten teams in shot attempts against and expected goals against per 60 minutes during even-strength play. However, things can change quickly. The Jets were on the opposite side of the spectrum two seasons ago, ranking among the bottom ten teams in both categories.
The top pairing of Josh Morrissey and Dylan Demelo is great. Morrissey provides offense, producing 76 and 69 points, respectively, in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Demelo is a strong defender, which makes him an ideal partner for Morrissey. However, Brenden Dillon was a big part of Winnipeg’s turnaround, and he was one of four players that the Jets lost on the opening day of free agency.
Dillon played important top-four minutes for the Jets for three seasons, and the remaining veterans are nothing special. Dylan Samberg should be in line to get more ice time, but Ville Heinola will be out for at least the next four weeks following an ankle surgery. Winnipeg still has one of the best goaltenders in Connor Hellebuyck, but it’ll be tough for him to repeat his performance from last season, especially if the Jets aren’t as good defensively.
Goaltending
Hellebuyck won his second Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season, and deservedly so. According to Evolving Hockey, Hellebuyck saved the Jets approximately 39 goals more than an average goaltender would have had they faced the same shots, which was the best season of his career through that lens. However, backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit was also an important part of the team’s success, but he signed with the Chicago Blackhawks in the offseason, and the Jets signed Kaapo Kahkonen in his place.
We know Hellebuyck will start somewhere around 60 games, give or take, but how will they fare in the remaining games? Kahkonen could be good, but his floor is a lot lower than Brossoit’s, and I don’t think his ceiling is as high. Brossoit ranked 12th in goals saved above expected, had the best save percentage of any goaltender who played at least 20 games and went 22-15-5. Kahkonen has allowed almost 40 goals more than an average goaltender would have throughout his career, which spans 139 games.
Prediction
Building on last season’s performance will be difficult, as the Jets finished with 110-plus points in approximately eight percent of simulations. It shouldn’t be that difficult for Winnipeg to exceed its regular season point total, though. Head coach Scott Arniel should pick up where Rick Bowness left off, given that he’s gone 15-7-3 in the interim role over the last two seasons, including 10-5-2 last season when Bowness had to leave the team. So, with the bulk of their roster from last season returning, it’s difficult to see the Jets falling too far down the Central Division standings. Barring injury, Hellebuyck will help the team win somewhere between 30 and 40 games (he’s won 37 in each of the last two seasons). According to our model, Winnipeg will finish with an average of 98 points and make the playoffs approximately 75 percent of the time.
