Over the past few weeks, we’ve touched on a few of the National Hockey League‘s most prestigious individual awards and the process behind winning them, such as the Jack Adams Trophy for best coach, the Calder Trophy for best rookie, and most recently, the Vezina Trophy for best goaltender. Well, if we were building from the net out the last time around, the next step is to look at the blue line. The James Norris Memorial Trophy is awarded to the league’s “defence player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position” – or the best defenceman, for short.
So what goes into the decision that the media voters have to make on the award, and who has the best Norris Trophy odds? Let’s dive in.
2024/25 Norris Trophy Betting Odds Favourites
| Goaltender | bet365 | Sports Interaction | NorthStar Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar (COL) | +250 | +250 | +225 |
| Adam Fox (NYR) | +700 | +600 | +750 |
| Quinn Hughes (VAN) | +700 | +600 | +750 |
| Evan Bouchard (EDM) | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Miro Heiskanen (DAL) | +1000 | +1100 | +900 |
| Noah Dobson (NYI) | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) | +1600 | +1500 | +1400 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | +1600 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG) | +2800 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Charlie McAvoy (BOS) | +3300 | +3000 | +1500 |
Other top defencemen from Canadian teams include Thomas Chabot of Ottawa (+10000, Sports Interaction), Morgan Rielly of Toronto (+40000, Sports Interaction), MacKenzie Weegar of Calgary (+40000, Sports Interaction), and Mike Matheson of Montreal (+40000, Sports Interaction).
As it stands, NorthStar Bets seems to have the best odds for the top candidates, while Sports Interaction looks to be the strong play if you’re looking at a dark horse.
What Goes Into The Norris Winner?
Judging who the best defenceman in the league is can sound tricky, but it’s really not so complicated once you look at the metrics that seem to make a positive difference in the voting swings. It’s not so much about being a wizard in your own zone, as it is being an outstanding contributor to the overall flow of play, who happens to be a defenceman. At least, in most cases.
| Year | Defenceman | Team | Points | ATOI | +/- | GAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Quinn Hughes | Vancouver | 92 (1st) | 24:41 (11th) | +38 (4th) | 24.9 (1st) |
| 2023 | Erik Karlsson | San Jose | 101 (1st) | 25:37 (5th) | -26 (324th) | 18.3 (4th) |
| 2022 | Cale Makar | Colorado | 86 (1st) | 25:40 (6th) | +48 (2nd) | 22.9 (1st) |
| 2021 | Adam Fox | NY Rangers | 47 (2nd) | 24:42 (11th) | +19 (18th) | 9.8 (15th) |
| 2020 | Roman Josi | Nashville | 65 (2nd) | 25:47 (3rd) | +22 (9th) | 17.9 (5th) |
| 2019 | Mark Giordano | Calgary | 74 (2nd) | 24:14 (16th) | +39 (1st) | 17.3 (3rd) |
| 2018 | Victor Hedman | Tampa Bay | 63 (5th) | 25:51 (5th) | +32 (2nd) | 10.2 (26th) |
| 2017 | Brent Burns | San Jose | 76 (1st) | 24:52 (12th) | +19 (21st) | 14.0 (12th) |
| 2016 | Drew Doughty | Los Angeles | 51 (12th) | 28:01 (3rd) | +24 (5th) | 6.7 (62nd) |
| 2015 | Erik Karlsson | Ottaw | 66 (1st) | 27:15 (3rd) | +7 (70th) | 13.4 (11th) |
- Production Matters A Lot – Again, this is a defensive trophy on the face, but the best way to put yourself in the race is to produce. That means being an effective 5-on-5 scorer, a player your team wants to play on the powerplay, in empty-net situations, or in overtime. At the end of the day, the goal is to outscore the other team, and if you are contributing to that from a few feet further back, you’re creating value as a defenceman, even if it’s not in the name. The last three Norris winners have led defencemen in points, while eight of the last ten have finished top-two for the season.
- Make Yourself Needed – Being healthy is obviously key to any award, as it lets you be seen and lets you accumulate individual statistics. But beyond that, you also want to be a player the team trusts to eat up big minutes. Every Norris Trophy winner over the past extended stretch has been among the league’s most-used players, with six of the last ten ranking top six in average time-on-ice. The floor seems to be about 24 minutes per night, with most hovering around 25-26 minutes.
- Tilt The Ice (Within Reason) – For all its flaws, Plus/Minus has often been a pretty good hint-dropper over the years, with five of the last ten winners finishing top-5 in the metric. Sometimes players go off the board, like Erik Karlsson in 2023, who won despite one of the league’s worst results in the metric. However, a lot of his minuses were shorthanded goals or empty net goals against, which differ from normal even-strength goal differential – not to mention, his San Jose Sharks were an order of magnitude worse without him on the ice. Plus, there was the whole “scored 101 points” thing going for him. Like most awards, ultimately, perception favours players on teams who win, and teams who win tend to have good goal differential.
- No Big Surprises – Generally, this award has gone to high-pedigree players. Some could argue that there’s a bias there, be it in reputation in the eyes of the voters, to established stars getting the necessary minutes to succeed, but it’s been a very long time since a defenceman has won the Norris without already being established as one of the league’s best players at the position.
Charlie McAvoy (BOS) to win 2024/25 Norris Trophy
Can Cale Come Back? Is Charlie the Next Man Up?
Quinn Hughes’ spectacular year with the Canucks reignited past conversations about who the league’s “defenceman of the future” would be between himself and Colorado Avalanche blueliner Cale Makar. Sure enough, Makar was no slouch in the race himself, finishing third in voting with 90 points in 77 games and landing as a Norris finalist for the fourth consecutive season.
Alas, voter fatigue can often be a thing, as no one wants to pick the guy generally considered the best. Just look at the peak of Erik Karlsson’s career and some of the years where he missed out on adding to his trophy case.
The major sportsbooks are not counting on a repeat, expecting a hungry Avalanche team to return to the league’s elite ranks with a vengeance, with Makar at the forefront of that push. bet365, Sports Interaction, and Northstar Bets, among others, have him with the far and away shortest odds to win, setting him at about +225 to +250, with the next layer starting at +700.
It’s a fair assessment, especially with Hughes now getting his win, just like Adam Fox in 2021. If there were a new winner, though, who could challenge Makar and the rest of the crowd?
My dark horse pick would be Charlie McAvoy of the Boston Bruins. This isn’t the first time I’ve come to this well, and it probably won’t be the last. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has been a consistent producer and effective shutdown weapon for the Bruins, and as their golden generation slowly fades away, the impact of players like McAvoy and David Pastrnak will only be more necessary and given more recognition.
McAvoy has received Norris votes in each of the last five seasons, including Top-5 finishes in 2021 and 2022. Last year, there was a slight dip in his overall performance, but if he can play close to his best and help Boston stay in the mix, he could be of great value at +3300 (bet365).
