Just when you thought betting on the CFL was more effortless than stealing candy from a baby… BAM! That kid just gotta start crying and making us look like southern fried fools. Our picks, unfortunately, went 1-3 last week. If we’re being honest, over the previous month, our performance has plateaued. We have a good week, and then a bad one follows, so the pattern continues.
In the critically acclaimed Netflix series “House of Cards,” protagonist Frank Underwood once said, “There’s no better way to overpower a trickle of doubt than with a flood of naked truth.” In our case, the “naked truth” is that, although we win a lot, we’re not immune to losing. A good sharp bettor wins at a 57% rate playing bets priced at -110 or better. At least, that’s the best possible outcome they could hope for. Most usually hit around 54.5% to 56%, and they’re happy with it. You gotta take the good with the bad.
In other words, we’re not trying to be cute with our picks. No, our system doesn’t suck. Losing is just a part of the game. Just ask the Toronto Argonauts. However flawed the team may be right now, when Toronto is playing at its best, the Argos are one of the top squads in the league. Obviously, The Boatmen looked pretty bad in their loss to the Ticats, a team that has had Toronto’s number this year. Yet, the bookmakers are only making the Alouettes short road favourites against Toronto. Maybe that’s because the Als have all but locked up first place in the East and plan to chill out a bit. However, we’re not convinced.
So, yes, we’re back on our BS. Our insights might not be as intricate as the melody to a Tool song, but we #TrustTheSystem and know it yields positive results in the long run. Week 17 is another tricky slate to bet on. That said, there are some spots in here that we like.
So, before you close the page and PISS US OFF (we’re not really mad), take a quick peek at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds. And if you’re not a whiny little 🐶, stick around for our picks:
| Team | bet365 | Bet99 | NorthStar Bets |
| Montreal Alouettes | +190 | +170 | +175 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +280 | +280 | +275 |
| BC Lions | +333 | +335 | +350 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +700 | +730 | +850 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +750 | +790 | +900 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +750 | +750 | +1500 |
| Edmonton Elks | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +6600 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 |
Edmonton Elks @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers – September 27
Best moneyline odds: Elks +190 @ bet365, Blue Bombers -200 @ Bet99
Best spread odds: Elks +4.5 (+100 @ BetRivers), Blue Bombers -4.5 (-107 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle), Under 49.5 points (-107 @ Pinnacle)
Holy horse 💩, the public finally ate an L backing the Elks. If we were going to be right about only one thing last week, we’re glad it was this!
In this week’s game, we won’t pick a side. We’re not going to do that mainly because of the line. We strongly feel that the Blue Bombers should’ve opened closer to 6.5-point favourites at home. The Blue Bombers at -4.5 feels too light. However, we also know people will be backing the Elks heavily, expecting that Edmonton has a bounce-back game.
Instead, what catches our eye is the total. If the books felt that these teams would play a lower-scoring game, the total should’ve opened closer to 46.5 or 47. Yet, the books stick to the 49.5 total, which can be seen as a gift to people high on Winnipeg’s defence.
After watching the highlights of last week’s game, we don’t think Edmonton got TOTALLY shut down on the offensive side of the ball. It was just a matter of Winnipeg’s defence coming up big when it needed to get a stop.
If Edmonton can make some adjustments and have a better offensive game plan, we don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that the Elks could put 21 points or more on the board. As we’ve said several times this season, we’re not high on the Elks’ defence, so we anticipate the Blue Bombers scoring at a decent pace.
Pick: Give us Over 49.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle).
Elks vs. Blue Bombers: Over 49.5 points
-109
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ British Columbia Lions – September 27
Best moneyline odds: Tiger-Cats +325 @ bet365, Lions -336 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Tiger-Cats +7.5 (-105 @ bet365), Lions -6.5 (-115 @ BetRivers)
Best over/under odds: Over 53.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle), Under 53.5 points (-109 @ Betway)
The hangman’s paradox deduces the outcome of the inevitable, giving its victims unfounded knowledge that they can escape their fate. Nevertheless, that fate can’t be outrun, no matter how hard they try to tell themselves otherwise. What’s meant to happen will happen, but when it’ll happen is the actual surprise. Such can be said for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
We’re willing to die on this hill: The Ticats aren’t a good team. For the past month, Hamilton has been playing way above average. When the inevitable occurs, and the Ticats come crashing back down to earth, the team won’t stand a chance in hell of even covering the spread against a squad like the BC Lions, let alone beating the Lions outright.
Yet, we’ve heard betting analysts give 101 reasons why the Ticats will cover the spread, potentially BEAT the Lions in Week 17, and coast into the playoffs. We’re not going to humour them by going through those reasons.
Instead, this is all you’ll need to know: The Lions’ best game > the Ticats’ best game. Rourke > Mitchell (stats be damned). Lions’ defence > Ticats’ defence.
Occam’s razor says BC covers the -7.5 spread. While everybody will act surprised when the inevitable happens, we won’t be shocked because we have already seen the writing on the wall.
To put it more poetically: If Columbus was wrong, we’d drive straight off the edge.
Pick: Give us the Lions -6.5 (-115 @ BetRivers) point spread.
Ottawa Redblacks @ Saskatchewan Roughriders – September 28
Best moneyline odds: Redblacks +148 @ Pinnacle, Roughriders -145 @ Proline+
Best spread odds: Redblacks +3 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets), Roughriders -2.5 (-110 @ bet365)
Best over/under odds: Over 51.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets), Under 51.5 points (-106 @ Pinnacle)
HERE WE GO! Who’s ready to hear the broken record repeat itself?
Yup, that’s right. We’re going to bring back the Redblacks YET AGAIN. Here’s why:
We’re stubborn and unwilling to change our ways.
Nah, we just playing wit you, fam.
We’re backing the Redblacks in this spot mainly because we think the public will jump to bet on the Roughriders after the team’s win last week. Sources have also told CSB that their professional betting syndicates are considering a wager on the Redblacks due to the same thoughts.
If our sources are to be believed, we could have a pros vs. joes setup, with the pros on Ottawa.
Does Ottawa beat the Roughriders outright on the road? It’s a tall challenge. That said, the bookies did put out a pretty soft line if you like the Roughriders, so who knows?
Nevertheless, we think this game will stay close enough for what we’d like to see happen.
Pick: Give us the Redblacks +3 (-110 @ NorthStar Bets) point spread.
Montreal Alouettes @ Toronto Argonauts – September 28
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -125 @ Pinnacle, Argonauts +115 @ Bet99
Best spread odds: Alouettes -1.5 (-107 @ Pinnacle), Argonauts +2.5 (-110 @ TonyBet)
Best over/under odds: Over 51.5 points (-110 @ bet365), Under 51.5 points (-106 @ Pinnacle)
Honest to goodness, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or an astrophysicist to see that the books are just BEGGING you to bet on the Montreal Alouettes here. What a soft line, especially against an Argos team that many would argue doesn’t deserve this type of respect.
Even if Montreal rests some guys, you’d think the Als would at least be favoured by -3.5 or more. Instead, you can get Montreal on the moneyline for as cheap as -125. It’s fooking Christmas in September, even if the Als are on the road.
If you’re a bettor who operates under Occam’s razor, you’ll be all over Montreal. No. Questions. Asked.
However, ask any good sports trader, line maker, or whatever the hell you want to call them, and they’ll say the same thing: They don’t intentionally put up bad lines. It’s TERRIBLE for business.
So, what the fook does that tell ya, lad?
The fooking Argos are live dogs. Chad Kelly will put on a masterclass, and Toronto’s defence will get its 💩 in order.
Pick: Give us the Argonauts +2.5 (-110 @ TonyBet) point spread.
