Even in the NFL, every dog has its day! WROOF! WROOF!
Yup, that‘s right, folks; you probably got killed if you like to bet the favourites. According to the Action Network, underdogs went 10-5-1 in Week 2 against the spread. That said, if you bought the hook on the New England Patriots, 10-5-1 turns 11-5. Consequently, if you got lucky and backed the Seattle Seahawks at -2.5, the tally goes to 10-6. Nevertheless, several bookmakers pointed out that many of the games lopsidedly bet in favour of the favourites (with 60% or more of the money being on the chalk) got destroyed, with the underdogs holding an impressive record of 8-2.
Will the favourites reign supreme in Week 3, or do the ‘dogs keep barking? As we’ll discuss in Week 3’s “Fighting Words,” don’t count on either.
Before we get to our coveted campfire chat, let’s look at the storylines to watch in the upcoming week.
| Date | Time (ET) | Teams | Spread (bet365) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 8:15 PM | Patriots @ Jets | Jets -6.5 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Bears @ Colts | Colts -1 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Giants @ Browns | Browns -7 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Eagles @ Saints | Eagles -2.5 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Texans @ Vikings | Texans -3 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Chargers @ Steelers | Steelers -2.5 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Broncos @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers -7 |
| Sep 22 | 1:00 PM | Packers @ Titans | Titans -1.5 |
| Sep 22 | 4:05 PM | Panthers @ Raiders | Raiders -7 |
| Sep 22 | 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Seahawks | Seahawks -6.5 |
| Sep 22 | 4:25 PM | Ravens @ Cowboys | Cowboys +1.5 |
| Sep 22 | 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Falcons | Chiefs -4 |
| Sep 22 | 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Rams | 49ers -7.5 |
| Sep 23 | 7:15 PM | Jaguars @ Bills | Bills -5.5 |
| Sep 23 | 8:15 PM | Commanders @ Bengals | Bengals -7.5 |
Week 3 Storylines To Watch
All Teams Are Equal, But Some Are More Equal Than Others
When it looked like all hope was lost for the Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes and Co. got saved by the refs YET AGAIN. Although we’ll argue that the pass interference call levied out to Cincinnati Bengals’ safety Daijahn Anthony was justified, it’s concerning to see that every time the Chiefs need to be bailed out, the 12th man on the field is always there to throw the all-important yellow flag. In this case, the PI penalty moved the ball down the field 29 yards, putting the Chiefs in a prime position to kick the game-winning field goal. If the refs looked the other way (which an argument can be made if the roles were reversed, they would’ve), Kansas City would’ve turned the ball over on downs, and the Bengals would’ve won the game 25-23.
We’ll give credit where credit is due. Mahomes threw the ball in the right spot to draw a PI call, but it really does make you wonder: Was that Mahomes having a high football IQ, or was it something else? Did he know he was going to get the flag?
PUT THAT TINFOIL HAT ON, BROTHER MAN!
Remember, the Chiefs have been bailed out twice this season by the Zebras. And the most ironic thing about it all is that there was a time not too long ago when Patrick “Don’t call him ‘Pat’” Mahomes said after a crushing loss to the Packers on SNF when the Chiefs were on the wrong side of a non-call: “I’ll admit, you just can’t throw a flag at that point in the game. I’ve gotta make the throw; you can’t be wanting a flag.”
FUN FACT: According to the NFL Network, since 2018, Mahomes has had 17 INTs called back due to a defensive penalty, the most during that timeframe.
The AFC North is wildin’
Let’s be honest: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a decent team with a great defence, but if we asked you who would be the sole leader of the division after two weeks, you wouldn’t have said the 2-0 Yinzer Gang. If anything, the expectation would’ve been for the top three teams to be 1-1. Nevertheless, Baltimore has shockingly started 0-2. The same can be said for Cincy. The Cleveland Browns are the only team that played to expectation, and even its Week 1 loss was underwhelming.
There’s a genuine chance that Pittsburgh could move to 3-0 and have a commanding lead over teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, making the eventual divisional showdowns all the more critical.
New Orleans Isn’t Going to Sink This Year
Derek Carr burst out of the Fair Grounds starting gate at a stunning pace-setting speed. The Saints’ Week 1 beatdown of the Carolina Panthers was impressive, but many wrote it off as the Panthers being bad rather than New Orleans being really good. Nevertheless, in a showcase of how high the Saints’ ceiling can be, the team from the Swamp Lands went into Dallas in Week 2 and absolutely DESTROYED the Cowboys by a score of 44-19. Even the Saints’ haters within the press corps had to tip their caps. Of course, the big question is whether New Orleans will be able to sustain its pace throughout the season. If the Saints can, look TF out!
Week 3’s Fighting Words
There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man’s fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call “The Twilight Zone.”
When it comes to betting on football, we usually enter “The Twilight Zone” later in the season. There’ll be a week when everything a casual bettor couldn’t imagine happening happens. For example, Saquon Barkley dropping a pass that would’ve essentially won the Philadelphia Eagles the game. The New York Giants making some costly defensive mistakes to gift-wrap the Washington Commanders a game-winning field goal etc, etc.
Of course, when the worst thing happens, we tend to get upset and bet with our emotions. If we’re describing your gambling habits, just know that PISSES US OFF (but we’re not really mad)! As we said in Week 1, the NFL season is long and treacherous. If you can’t keep your wits about you, you’ll lose your bankroll very quickly.
If you’re a sharp bettor, you’ll know that just because you had a fantastic week, that doesn’t mean you should go and double down in Week 3. If anything, you’ll stick to your betting plan and ride the rollercoaster that is the NFL schedule.
We’ll encourage the bettors who got killed to do the same thing. As one of our betting mentors once told us, “Every cold streak is the prelude to a heater.”
If the numbers are in your favour, which for most, they aren’t, you’ll be able to egg out a profit. And even if your system sucks, you’ll still have enough money to bet the entire season and make the games a little bit more interesting.
Lines To BET NOW
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110 @ bet365): We’ll admit that this line does seem like the chalky one to play. That said, we’ve seen a chorus of “twerpy bettors” who want to go all-in on the Chargers this week. We’ve also heard from sharp sources that Pittsburgh -1.5 was their favourite bet of the week when the line was there. Even at -2.5, the sharps are still biting. If the betting splits are to be believed, the overwhelming majority of the money is on the Chargers, which means we’re seeing some heavy reverse-line movement. In other words, the wise guys are all over the Steelers, even the ones we’re not on speaking terms with.
- Indianapolis Colts -1 (-110 @ Sports Interaction): Several sources have indicated they plan to hammer the Colts in the team’s game against the Chicago Bears. The line opened at -1.5, and some bettors were waiting to see if the public would bet the Bears down to pick‘em odds. No matter where the line goes, one sharp bettor told CSB that their algorithm, which takes advanced metrics into consideration, shows that the Colts have “lopsided advantages in several key areas.” What those areas were, the source wouldn’t disclose. There are a lot of mainstream analysts arguing that Chicago should have an easy time passing the ball with the Colts’ secondary being so banged up. For what it’s worth, we like Indy’s setup in this spot and have this line projected closer to -2.5.
Lines To WATCH
- Baltimore Ravens -1 (-112 @ Pinnacle): THE RAVENS CAN’T AFFORD TO GO 0-3. This is Baltimore’s biggest game of the season. Of course, the Ravens get stuck playing the Dallas Cowboys IN DALLAS right after the Cowboys got spanked by the “has been” Derek Carr and his New Orleans Saints in Week 2. While the public expects Dallas to bounce back and beat the Ravens at home, we’re not sure. We’re holding off from making this a line to bet now because we want to know where the late sharp money goes. If the late money goes towards Baltimore… BOMBS AWAY!
- Carolina Panthers +5.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle): The Panthers suck, and starting Andy Dalton isn’t going to make the offence much better, but it’ll interesting to see if sharp money will hit Carolina in any meaningful way. Eventually, the Panthers have to cover, and that’s not a bad spot to try—another buy-low situation.
Lines To Avoid
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-101 @ Pinnacle): This game just feels too good to be true. Everyone is expecting the Chiefs to cover easily. That said, the Falcons have momentum on their side. Most projections have KC at -5.5 to -7. This number seems too low. And, of course, the public is already biting. We don’t want to overreact to Atlanta’s big comeback against the Eagles on Monday. We’ll pass on this game.
- Minnesota Vikings +3 (-105 @ Bet99): We have this game projected around Houston -1.5, so hanging anything close to the key number of three feels like a gift to the public who are going to be willing to bet the ‘dogs this week. Also, in our eyes, Minnesota is a wild card to bet on. You never know what you’re going to get. The Vikings’ line opened at +4 and has been getting bet down to +2 at some books. We don’t trust Houston enough to get the cover, so we’re not interested in fading the public. We’ll stay away from this one.
TWO-MINUTE DRILL: Player Props We Like
- Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) OVER 180.5 passing yards (-110 @ Betano): The Action Network Pro’s prop projector has this line projected at 195, so you’re getting some decent value. Colts’ running back Jonathan Taylor won’t rush for 100 yards all the time. Richardson will have to carry the load this week against a Bears defence capable of shutting down the running game.
- Justin Fields (Pittsburgh Steelers) OVER 157.5 passing yards (-114 @ BetRivers): Honestly, this is just a gut feeling, a “you can’t have your pudding if you don’t eat your meat” situation. No algorithms are guiding us to this play. We believe Fields will get the chance to air the ball out, especially if the team wants to get Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren running the ball more effectively. That all starts with getting the passing game going. Let’s also not forget that due to some stupid penalties (no fault of Fields), some big passing plays have been called back, including a nice catch made by Steelers wideout George Pickens. Fields has been knocking on the door, and while everyone is hammering his UNDER when facing the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers, we think Fields will solidify himself as the starting quarterback. Give us the OVER.
