The Vezina Trophy, awarded to the National Hockey League‘s best goaltender in a given season, is among the league’s most prestigious awards. After all, a team is only as good as its netminder, as the difference between an elite and poor puck-stopping can make a huge difference in a game, a playoff series, or a season. Voted on by the league’s 32 general managers, let’s break down how a fan or a prospective bettor can be best prepared to pick a future winner.
2024/25 Vezina Trophy Betting Odds Favourites
| Goaltender | bet365 | Sports Interaction | NorthStar Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin (NYR) | +550 | +550 | +650 |
| Jeremy Swayman (BOS) | +600 | +600 | +750 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) | +700 | +600 | +700 |
| Ilya Sorokin (NYI) | +800 | +900 | +1100 |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN) | +800 | +800 | +850 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB) | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Jacob Markstrom (NJ) | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | +1200 | +1400 | +900 |
| Juuse Saros (NSH) | +1400 | +1500 | +1150 |
| Linus Ullmark (OTT) | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 |
Other starters from Canadian teams include Stuart Skinner of Edmonton (+5000, bet365), Joseph Woll of Toronto (+6000, bet365), Sam Montembeault of Montreal (+20000, bet365), and Dustin Wolf of Calgary (+20000, bet365).
As it stands, NorthStar Bets seems to have the best odds for the top canadidates, while books like bet365 and Sports Interaction are strong plays if you’re looking to the second layer.
What Goes Into A Vezina Winner?
Truthfully, this is one of the trickier trophies in the game to get a handle on with the volatility of the position. With that said, there are some patterns, and we do see a small handful of reoccurring faces in the voting races in most years. Let’s break down how the last ten winners have performed in their seasons of victory:
| Year | Goalie | Team | Wins | GAA | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg | 37 (2nd) | 2.39 (3rd) | 0.921 (1st) | 39.3 (1st) |
| 2023 | Linus Ullmark | Boston | 40 (1st) | 1.89 (1st) | 0.938 (1st) | 38.2 (3rd) |
| 2022 | Igor Shesterkin | NY Rangers | 36 (6th) | 2.07 (1st) | 0.935 (1st) | 37.2 (1st) |
| 2021 | Marc-Andre Fleury | Vegas | 26 (3rd) | 1.98 (2nd) | 0.928 (2nd) | 19.9 (1st) |
| 2020 | Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg | 31 (2nd) | 2.57 (11th) | 0.922 (5th) | 20.0 (1st) |
| 2019 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Tampa Bay | 39 (1st) | 2.40 (9th) | 0.925 (6th) | 7.0 (16th) |
| 2018 | Pekka Rinne | Nashville | 42 (3rd) | 2.31 (4th) | 0.927 (5th) | 17.8 (5th) |
| 2017 | Sergei Bobrovsky | Columbus | 41 (3rd) | 2.06 (1st) | 0.931 (1st) | 45.1 (1st) |
| 2016 | Braden Holtby | Washington | 48 (1st) | 2.20 (5th) | 0.922 (8th) | 13.9 (7th) |
| 2015 | Carey Price | Montreal | 44 (1st) | 1.96 (1st) | 0.933 (1st) | 38.9 (1st) |
- Winners Win – Whether or not it should matter, the voting general managers have always been attracted to the win column. Only once in the last decade has a Vezina winner earned his trophy without also finishing Top 3 in the league in wins. Some of that is a matter of byproduct – a good goalie is going to get his team results, and a good team is going to make a goalie’s life easier – but there’s no doubt that the relationship is there. Look to goaltenders on teams that you think will be competitive in the standings when combined with a strong performance between the pipes.
- Availability Is An Ability – With this in mind, it’s important to look to a goaltender who is likely to put up a heavy workload over the course of the year. More games mean more opportunities to impress, and more opportunity to accumulate wins. A tandem goalie can win, but in extremely rare circumstances. Linus Ullmark in 2023 is an example of a 1A that did, but he also had a winning percentage for the ages and dominated by every other metric.
- Stopping The Puck Matters… For The Most Part – Thankfully, a little more than just wins and games played get factored into decision-making. Playing your role at a high enough level does matter too. The last three Vezina winners have all led the league in save percentage, and all of the last decade of winners have finished in the top ten. The same can be said, for the most part, about Goals Against Average, though the relationship isn’t as concrete – probably for the best, because while a goalie can stop the pucks he faces, the amount of rubber that comes at him isn’t on him. One metric that’s become more popular in recent years – goals saved above expected, which measures a netminder’s performance versus the quality of shots that he faces – does seem to have some connection to results, though we’ve seen outliers to that pattern in recent years as well.
The most alarming point to make, though, is that it’s exceedingly difficult to figure out who could win the next year by looking at who performed the year before. Don’t believe me? Look at how the last ten did in their season prior to being named the league’s best goaltender.
| Year | Goalie | Team | Wins | GAA | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg | 37 (3rd) | 2.49 (10th) | 0.920 (5th) | 33.6 (4th) |
| 2022 | Linus Ullmark | Boston | 26 (17th) | 2.45 (7th) | 0.917 (10th) | -2.5 (66th) |
| 2021 | Igor Shesterkin | NY Rangers | 16 (16th) | 2.62 (9th) | 0.916 (8th) | 4.7 (16th) |
| 2020 | Marc-Andre Fleury | Vegas | 27 (5th) | 2.77 (24th) | 0.905 (31st) | -14.0 (81st) |
| 2019 | Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg | 34 (7th) | 2.90 (31st) | 0.913 (24th) | -6.1 (62nd) |
| 2018 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Tampa Bay | 44 (1st) | 2.62 (17th) | 0.920 (12th) | -16.7 (87th) |
| 2017 | Pekka Rinne | Nashville | 31 (13th) | 2.24 (15th) | 0.918 (14th) | -0.4 (42nd) |
| 2016 | Sergei Bobrovsky | Columbus | 15 (35th) | 2.75 (34th) | 0.908 (35th) | -8.4 (73rd) |
| 2015 | Braden Holtby | Washington | 41 (3rd) | 2.22 (5th) | 0.923 (8th) | 12.0 (12th) |
| 2014 | Carey Price | Montreal | 34 (6th) | 2.32 (9th) | 0.927 (3rd) | 24.1 (2nd) |
Despite most of these netminders having elite overall careers, not only are many of them not knocking on the door for the Vezina in the year before they win it, some of them would be difficult to argue as having had good previous years. What makes a lot of these guys elite and favourites to win these awards is that they’re great more years than not and that you know that most of the group of the top 5-10 goaltenders will perform, but even then, a few of them sputter ever year – and weirdly enough, in a lot of cases, it’s the darkest before the dawn.
Igor Shesterkin to win Vezina Trophy in 2024/25
Shesterkin Fits The Bill
With this in mind, Igor Shesterkin being the betting odds favourite at most books makes a lot of sense. The 28-year-old has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since joining the league in 2019/20, posting the league’s second-highest save percentage, second-best goals saved above expected, fifth-best goals against average, and winning the fifth-most games. But his last regular season was pedestrian in his own terms, with a career-low in save percentage and quality start percentage and a near-career worst goals against average.
Now, many of those numbers were still on the better side, and his 36 wins for a Presidents Trophy-winning team meant that he still finished fourth in last year’s Vezina voting. But it also shows that he has room to climb back up, something we already got a taste of in a spectacular playoff run that saw New York go to the Eastern Conference Final.
A similar case could be made for fellow Russian-come-New-Yorker Ilya Sorokin, who had a solid enough year but still posted career lows in many major categories. I’d also throw Juuse Saros into the mix, knowing that the concerns of a contract extension and potential usurper in Yaroslav Aksarov are now behind him, and knowing that the Predators got much better. If it’s not the year of Shesterkin, Saros at +1500 on Sports Interaction feels like a stealthy pick if you decide to bet on this award.
All the same, this could be a case where instead of trying to chase maximum value now, your best decision might come a few weeks into the year, once everyone’s had a chance to see some rubber and get a feel for their teams. Perhaps the play is to split your play between a preseason pick and one a little bit later, whether it’s doubling down or a pivot.
Either way, it’ll be exciting to see who stands out and catches their groove in 2024/25.
