We’ve officially rounded third base in the Major League Baseball season, with home firmly in our sights. As teams across the American League and National League jockey for final standings positions with fewer than 30 games to go, the races for several individual awards are starting to close in. Let’s take a look at what’s still on the board and whether they’re worth making a play on still.
Most Valuable Player
While this would historically be the most popular award to place a bet on at this time of year, this is not a typical moment in history. Simply put, the American League and National League MVP awards are to be treated as low-interest savings accounts from a betting perspective.
It’s hard to see any outcome besides Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees in the American League (-3500) and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League (-2500). This is so much the case that books like bet365 are offering “the Field” options for those who want to place a bet on anyone besides those two in their respective leagues, with anyone but Judge going for +1300 in the AL and anyone but Ohtani going for +1100 in the NL.
It’s not hard to see why. Judge is slugging at an immense rate right now, and has a shot at breaking his own AL record for most home runs in a season, already having 51 to his name. On the other side, Ohtani has already joined the 40-40 club and is now chasing the foundation of a 50-50 club, already posting 43 home runs and steals, respectively.
Players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Francisco Lindor have put up spectacular seasons in their respective leagues, but they’re caught in the shadows of giants (and not the kind from San Francisco).
Cy Young Award
Similarly, there’s no real race for the American League’s top pitcher. Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers has absolutely dominated this year, picking up 15 wins, putting up a cool 2.58 ERA, and leading the league in strikeouts, ERA+, FIP, and Strikeouts Per 9 innings. It’s been a dominant year for the 27-year-old, and no one really comes close. His odds sit at -5000 right now on bet365.
The National League is quite a bit closer, though it’s a two-horse race, and it’s still not overly tight. Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves is having a season very similar to, if not better than Skubal’s – 15 wins, an equal 2.58 ERA, and leads the majors in the four categories that Skubal leads the AL in. What’s different here is that Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia (+500) is a better second-fiddle to Sale than anyone is to Skubal in the AL, not leading in any major category but staying competitive by all major metrics. I’d still look to Sale at -700 to win this, but a rotten final few weeks could disrupt.
Jackson Merrill (SD) to win Rookie of the Year, National League
Rookie Of The Year
You might be noticing a pattern here, and it’s that the American League is pretty wrapped up in most of its awards. There’s a little bit more of a race there than the other major awards, but Colton Cowser of the Baltimore Orioles is firmly in the driver’s seat here, with -800 odds to win the award, while projected runner-up Austin Wells of the Yankees sits at +600. The 24-year-old has put up 20 home runs while producing elite defence in the outfield, and while Wells has been one of the most impactful catchers in the league – not just among rookies, but period – that’s hard to match up against.
Maybe the most serious race remaining is among National League Rookies, with an interesting battle between Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Simply put, both of these players have been elite, not just for their age, but in general. Skenes, in fact, sits a projected fourth – albeit distantly – in the Cy Young race.
Merrill’s appearance as the frontrunner for the award – currently sitting at -650 at bet365 – is a relatively new revelation, jumping to the top a little over a week ago. Skenes had -5000 odds to win as recently as July 24th, and Merrill was +5000 as recently as June 13th. But a combination of the 20-year-old outfielder stepping up his batting game from June on, while Skenes’ jaw-dropping debut loses a little bit of its novelty with time has flipped the script. Skenes now sits at +450.
Despite momentum clearly being in Merrill’s favour, I’d keep an eye on this one. Skenes is still throwing gas, and unless the Pirates decide to play their star pitcher safe and shut him down before the end of the season, has lots of time to take his throne back.
