Major League Baseball has no shortage of quirky achievements to chase for. Some can take place in a single game, and some can even take place in a single inning. Many take place throughout a single season, and one of the most interesting in that regard is the 40/40 Club, signifying 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season.
Shohei Ohtani became the sixth member of the club last Friday with a dramatic walk-off grand slam and now finds himself in an interesting spot – does he have enough juice to become the first player to deliver a 50/50 season?
MLB 40/40 Club History
| Player | Year | HR | SB | GP Req |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Canseco | 1988 | 42 | 40 | 151 |
| Barry Bonds | 1996 | 42 | 40 | 158 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1998 | 42 | 46 | 153 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 2006 | 46 | 41 | 147 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 2023 | 41 | 73 | 152 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 2024 | 41+ | 40+ | 126 |
Interestingly, this club is relatively new to baseball’s history. You need to be a pretty versatile player to achieve the mark – powerful enough to go yard, fast enough to beat tags, and with the brains and vision to find the sweet spots needed for both. Hitting for power has been in and out of fashion throughout baseball history, as has stealing. Both feats are being performed at an upper rate compared to the sport’s history, but neither is at their absolute peak.
The list of 40/40 members features many of the game’s great all-around talents, but it does not include any Hall of Famers. Canseco, Bonds, and Rodriguez all have asterisks to their names due to their PED use in years following their 40/40 seasons; Soriano just missed the mark, and Acuna and Ohtani are still active. This trivia is unlikely to have much permanence, but it remains the case.
Until now, no one has put up a serious run at 50/50, with no batter achieving a higher “low number” than Rodriguez’s 42 home runs. Acuna’s elite stealing was the first time anyone eclipsed 46 in either direction while making themselves a club member. So Ohtani, who joined the club over 20 games faster than anyone else, is in a prime position to at least have the beefiest 40/40 season, even if he doesn’t get to the next level.
Can Ohtani Reach The 50/50 Club?
With that said, we all want to see the 30-year-old megastar take a run at this. While his two-way talent is typically displayed through pitching and hitting in the same season, it’s been a ton of fun watching him show off his full batter’s toolbox this year as he recovers from a UCL tear.
Ohtani’s batting prowess hasn’t been a huge surprise, in the sense that he’s had three 40+ home run seasons in the past four years and has averaged 41 round-trippers per 162 games in over his seven-year MLB career. The stolen bases have been the more significant jump, as he’s blown past his previous career high of 26. What’s interesting is that he’s become much more proficient on top of his frequency – his steel success rate is 91% this year, up from 72% in previous seasons. This is his best shot at chasing something as unique as a 50-50 season.
The easiest way to project his chances here would be to go by season pace and extrapolate it to the rest of the year. Assuming he plays the final 30 games of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ season and continues to mash and steal at the same rates he has thus far, he’ll finish the year with… 50 home runs and 49 stolen bases, a heartbreaking projected result.
| Month | GP | HR | SB | HR/162 | SB/162 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career Apr-Aug | 720 | 193 | 114 | 43.4 | 25.7 |
| Career Sep-Oct | 110 | 19 | 12 | 28.0 | 17.7 |
| 2024 To Date | 129 | 41 | 40 | 51.5 | 50.2 |
Also worrisome is that September & October have historically been unproductive months for Ohtani – his worst, in fact.
These numbers can be influenced in a few ways, though, making the argument for optimism. For one, the career numbers from April to August have increased a little bit this year because of his great season, meaning the true historical gap between the majority and the home stretch isn’t quite this big. As well, previous seasons have been influenced by wear-and-tear injuries that Ohtani hasn’t shown signs of this year – for instance, a knee injury in 2019 and an oblique injury in 2023, both of which would’ve especially impacted his running before shutting down.
Lastly, with no disrespect to the cross-town Angels that he played for in his previous seasons, there was just less to play for. The plug was already pulled on their seasons by the time they got to September in those years, so whether subconsciously or intentionally, it’s likely a bit of going through the motions was happening there.
The tradeoff to that last point, of course, is that the Dodgers might look to rest their generational star towards the end of the year if they lock up the NL West, though they’re only three games up right now. This gives all the more reason to play high-stakes baseball until then.
Ultimately, this will be a tough task for Ohtani to pull off, but it doesn’t seem out of reach. His hot running along the basepaths remains the biggest concern to me. So I’d likely agree with theScore Bet‘s assessment that “no” is the more likely outcome, but reaching the mark isn’t an impossibility, and he’s exactly the type of talent that can make this chase feel less impossible. If nothing else, it seems likely he’ll finish with the highest floor of any 40/40 member, which is just another feather in his cap.
