Keeping your sanity following the CFL is now a full-time job. The bookmakers are in a constant state of doubt, always trying to balance their lines out with the ever-changing circumstances of the league. Fans are keeping an eye out for what will happen next. There’s still a bunch of football left to be played, and the West Division is wide open.
Moving along, in Week 11, we learned:
- BC Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke is mortal. The Blue Bombers are flying at the maximum altitude and blowing everyone else away.
- The CFL Command Centre is in the thick of it again, gift-wrapping the Montreal Alouettes a victory after a brutal missed call. (If Steve Dangle was doing reaction videos for ‘Rider games, we’re sure he’d be saying: DAVIS STEPPED OUT OF BOUNDS!!! FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS GOOD, JUST WATCH THE REPLAY!!! AAAHHH!!!).
- After a scary scene in the game’s first play when Ticats wide receiver Luther Hakunavanhu had to be taken to the hospital via ambulance, the Edmonton Elks swiftly defeated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. We here at CSB wish Hakunavanhu and Ticats QB Taylor Powell (who was also taken to the hospital later in the game as a precautionary measure after sustaining a hit to the head) speedy recoveries.
- Not to mention, Toronto Argonauts quarterback Chad Kelly has been controversially reinstated to the league and will start on Thursday against the Roughriders, leaving many in the CFL’s fanbase to ponder the ethics and morals of the league and its players’ union.
The good thing for Week 12 is that we have some profitable angles that we can lean on when making our picks. Last week was a crap shoot. This week, we feel slightly more confident in our selections.
Before we get to our picks, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds. As you can see, the bookmakers’ odds are all over the place, which means, once again, that it’s anyone’s game from here on out:
| Team | bet365 Odds | Bet99 Odds | NorthStar Bets Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | +225 | +205 | +200 |
| BC Lions | +230 | +240 | +175 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +500 | +525 | +650 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +500 | +500 | +750 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +700 | +675 | +1000 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +700 | +750 | +1000 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +3500 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Edmonton Elks | +4500 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +20000 | +20000 | +15000 |
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Toronto Argonauts – Aug. 22
Best moneyline odds: Roughriders +120 @ Pinnacle, Argonauts -140 @ Betway
Best spread odds: Roughriders +2.5. (-102 @ Pinnacle), Argonauts -2.5 (-110 @ BetRivers)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 50.5 points (-110 @ Proline+)
Roughriders QB Trevor Harris played a fine first game back against the Alouettes. He played pretty well, considering how good the Als’ defence has been this season. He could read the secondary well enough to make the passes that Shea Patterson wasn’t in prior weeks, and Harris gave his team a chance to win the game.
If you’ve been following the Argos this season, you’ll know the only thing Toronto has been missing is a bonafide starting QB. And Chad Kelly is listed as the QB1 on the team’s official depth chart for this game, making his return from a lengthy suspension official.
We wouldn’t be surprised if bettors overreacted to that, much like they did with Nathan Rourke’s return last week. The line for this game opened at Argos -2.5, which makes us feel like the books are trying to get money on Toronto.
Don’t get us wrong, this game should be close, but we think Kelly will need a week or two to regain his game. The Roughriders will be gunning for a win, especially with how wide-open the West Division is becoming. Sasky has the tools to beat Toronto, even if the Argos will be well-rested and ready to go.
Pick: Give us the Roughriders +2.5 (-102 @ Pinnacle) spread. We wouldn’t be surprised if Sasky won the game outright. The spread gives us two points of wiggle room if things don’t go well. If you have a bit of extra cash, consider buying half a point and getting a “key number” of three.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Aug. 23
Best moneyline odds: Tiger-Cats +377 @ Pinnacle, Blue Bombers -400 @ Betway
Best spread odds: Tiger-Cats +10 (-109 @ Pinnacle), Blue Bombers -8.5 (-115 @ Betway)
Best over/under odds: Over 48.5 points (-110 @ NorthStar Bets), Under 49.5 (-111 @ Pinnacle)
We won’t waste too much of your time on this game. The line makes a lot of sense, with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers being the well-deserving favourites against the lowly Ticats. Honestly, if the Blue Bombers come out strong and continue playing with an edge, Winnipeg should easily handle Hamilton.
The only thing that scares us is you’re buying really high on the Blue Bombers in this spot. Not too long ago, we called Winnipeg a “dogwater” team. Who’s to say we don’t get a below-average performance against what some might call “an easy opponent” in Hamilton?
Nevertheless, the likelihood of such a letdown feels minimal, even if the market will hammer Winnipeg’s point spread.
We wouldn’t be shocked if we can get a nice setup for the “middle” in this game.
Pick: Bet the Blue Bombers -8.5 (-115 @ Betway) spread pregame. Live bet Ticats at +18.5 or better at halftime if the price is there and hope the Ticats score some “garbage points” in the last five minutes of the game.
We were able to get a similar setup in Week 10. Let’s try our luck in Week 12. As always, if you can’t get a good live number for the Ticats at halftime, just roll with the pregame bet of Blue Bombers -8.5.
Bet on Tiger-Cats vs. Blue Bombers
BC Lions @ Ottawa Redblacks – Aug. 24
Best moneyline odds: Lions -115 @ BetRivers, Redblacks +108 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Lions -1 (-110 @ BetRivers), Redblacks +1.5 (-115 @ Betway)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-112 @ Proline+), Under 50.5 (-110 @ BetRivers)
We’re not going to lie—this game is tricky to pick. We think the Lions should be -3.5-point favourites. That said, we understand that the Redblacks have been public darlings all season long, so hanging +3.5 on Ottawa at home against a team the majority of the public might be looking to fade in the BC Lions is hella risky.
Realistically speaking, Rourke should have a way better game in Week 12. He’ll have some playing time under his belt and some practice reps with his new team. There’s no guarantee that it will translate into success. Let’s not forget, though, that the public bettors will probably want to see a good game out of Rourke before they jump back on the hype train in earnest.
In retrospect, this game is a toss-up. If Rourke plays like a God amongst men, BC wins handily. Ottawa should be able to put up a good fight if Rourke struggles, no matter who plays quarterback on its side of the field.
We wouldn’t lie, playing BC might be a sucker’s bet in this spot, but we’ll give it a hoot.
Pick: Give us Lions -115 ML @ BetRivers.
Edmonton Elks @ Montreal Alouettes – Aug. 25
Best moneyline odds: Elks +265 @ Betway, Alouettes -299 @ Pinnacle
Best spread odds: Elks +6.5 (-110 @ bet365), Alouettes -6 (-109 @ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 51.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 52.5 (-112 @ Proline+)
Look, this is another tricky game. The line on the spread opened at Als -6, which feels too low. If Montreal were a “lock to cover,” the line should’ve opened at Als -8.5/-9. Playing the Elks at +6 isn’t entirely enticing either, as there’s little value. Of course, the public will hammer Montreal, making Edmonton the play for most sharp bettors.
You’ll often see the public getting a bailout game in sports like football. Suppose Saskatchewan somehow manages to egg out a win against Toronto on Thursday. Plus, a few other things go the books’ way throughout the weekend, especially with the start of college football on Saturday. In that case, the primetime CFL game on Sunday might not mean much, and whatever happens, happens.
In such a scenario, Montreal should win easily. Nevertheless, playing against the system and the market is risky when you’re just “feeling it out” instead of playing with quantifiable information.
The Over 51.5 points would make the most sense in this spot. Montreal is good enough offensively to rack up some points, and if Edmonton wants to have a puncher’s chance of covering the spread, the Elks will have to put some points on the board.
And if we’re honest with ourselves, we doubt Edmonton’s defence will be able to stop Montreal’s run game. Once that’s established, the passing game will open for Als QB Davis Alexander. All this equates to points on the board.
Pick: Give us Over 51.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers).
