Some say we need to grow up and stop joking around about serious things like betting on the CFL. They don’t know what they’re doing, so they must resort to toilet humour and make cringeworthy jokes that not even a first-grader would laugh at. On the other hand, we’d like to say we’re on a full-fledged special operation to destroy the sportsbook, just like the Martians did when they successfully completed their do-or-die mission to conquer Uranus. Such glorious triumphs are evident by our 5-0-1 record in Week 10 and a 4-1 record the week before. But don’t you worry, Karen and Ken, we’re going to smarten up and “take things seriously” today by “keeping it real” with y’all.
We highly doubt that we’ll have a perfect record in Week 11. Let’s not forget, we got completely destroyed in Week 8, going 0-4, so we’ve seen both ends of the spectrum. If we’re going off probabilities, we’re much more likely to have a 2-2 or 1-3 week. In other words, there’s a strong probability that we could lose some money, even if it’s on the juice. That’s why you should take it easy, especially if you’ve been tailing us. We won’t be as hot as Sydney Sweeney forever.
Honestly, though, these are some of the sharpest lines we’ve seen in the CFL all season. Add in all the injuries throughout the league at key positions, and it’s harder to read these games. That doesn’t mean we’re playing not to lose at Canada Sports Betting; we’re just saying not to double down and act like you CAN’T lose because it’s sports betting, and anything CAN happen. Both good and bad, which is why it’s a best practice to be aware of such things and BET RESPONSIBLY. No “MEGA WHALE MAX PLAYS” or any of that BS. As the old saying goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” Stay safe and play smart.
Now, there’s no play we’re willing to go all-in on this week, but we did see a Grey Cup outright odds bet that we love. Before we talk about that, here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds. Some big news in the league has made the BC Lions jump up a spot and really changed the oddsmakers’ outlook of the season moving forward:
| Team | bet365 Odds | Bet99 Odds | NorthStar Bets Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC Lions | +180 | +195 | +175 |
| Montreal Alouettes | +225 | +205 | +225 |
| Toronto Argonauts | +500 | +540 | +750 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | +600 | +540 | +600 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +800 | +850 | +1000 |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +900 | +900 | +1000 |
| Calgary Stampeders | +2200 | +2250 | +2500 |
| Edmonton Elks | +6600 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +12500 | +15000 | +10000 |
Grey Cup Outright Odds Bet to Make: Toronto Argonauts +750 @ Northstar Bets
We know how some of y’all feel about Chad Kelly, but if he gets reinstated to the CFL, the Argos to win the Grey Cup at +750 at NorthStar Bets is a +EV bet if we’ve ever seen one.
We’ve watched every single Argos game this year. Their defence is solid, but the QB position has killed the double blue. Cameron Dukes can’t read the secondary if his life depended on it, and although we like Nick Arbuckle, in the words of former Toronto Maple Leafs bench boss Randy Carlyle, “He’s just okay.”
If there’s some stability in the shotgun and Kelly can reach his peak performance level, the Argos already have the best running back in the league with Ka’Deem Carey and an okay offensive line supporting them. Now, pair that with a top defence, and we firmly believe the Argonauts can beat anyone.
The Montreal Alouettes don’t scare us, nor does any other team in the East Division. If the BC Lions and Saskatchewan Roughriders can get healthy, maybe we’ll get scared come the Grey Cup, but the Argos are going to be tough to beat down the stretch otherwise. And anything can happen in the big game, even if Nathan Rourke is lighting the league on fire as the Lions’ new starting QB.
So, yes, if the Argos choose not to bring Kelly back or something else happens in the reinstatement process, we’re okay with believing in Dukes and/or Arbuckle. +750 is an overlay worth a two—or three-unit bet. Plus, there’s a chance the BC Lions will make Vernon Adams Jr. available via trade. If that happens, the Argonauts SHOULD be all over the currently injured star.
By the way, a unit equals 1% of our bankroll (our sports betting budget). For example, if our bankroll is $1000, a one-unit bet would amount to $10. We wouldn’t recommend betting more than five units on one wager, and that play would have to be a 10/10, highly profitable angle that our past performances can quantitatively prove. Otherwise, most of our bets will be one or two unit plays.
Ottawa Redblacks @ Calgary Stampeders – August 15
Best moneyline odds: Redblacks +161 @ Pinnacle, Stampeders -150 @ BetMGM
Best spread odds: Redblacks +4.5 (-120 @ Bet99), Stampeders -2.5 (-110 @ BetMGM)
Best over/under odds: Over 49.5 points (-105 @ BetMGM), Under 49.5 points (-110 @ bet365)
If we look at the Grey Cup outright odds, there’s a noticeable gap between the Redblacks and Stampeders. Yet, the oddsmakers are giving favouritism to the Stampeders in this game. Yes, we understand Jeremiah Masoli will come in to replace the injured Dru Brown at QB for Ottawa. Nevertheless, we still have this game priced as a pick‘em.
Going back to our discussion about “line psychology” from last week, we think the books are trying to get the “suckers” to back the Redblacks. In theory, we don’t think Masoli is a huge downgrade from Brown at QB. Also, based on our projections, Ottawa has the better defence.
The question that remains is: Why aren’t the Redblacks favoured? Yes, Calgary has the “home-field advantage,” but have you seen the crowds in Calgary lately? That’s no more of a home-field advantage than the Argos have at BMO Field. Sorry, not sorry.
The fact of the matter is the books know that the public loves an underdog story, which is why they’ll hammer the “Next Man Up (NMU)” angle. The NMU angle is when a backup player at a key position replaces a starter, and since the starter is out, the idea is the NMU offers better value on the spread.
That was the case two or three years ago when the angle wasn’t as popular, but now, the books have caught on and have begun playing Jedi mind tricks with the public.
Sharper bettors have caught up to that and rarely play the NMU angle. In fact, they’ll often fade it. Of course, that’s what we’ll do here. It’s a risky bet, but the Stampeders fell face-first last week to the Argos. We doubt we’ll see a performance like that again.
Pick: Gives us the Calgary Stampeders -150. We’re willing to eat the juice so we don’t have to sweat the spread. Regardless of who wins, this game is going to be close.
Montreal Alouettes @ Saskatchewan Roughriders – August 16
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -114 @ Pinnacle, Roughriders +115 @ Sports Interaction
Best spread odds: Alouettes -0.5 (-115 @ Betway), Roughriders +2.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction)
Best over/under odds: Over 50.5 points (-105 @ Sports Interaction), Under 51.5 (-110 @ bet365)
To be honest, this showdown of two of the best teams in the league is tough to call. We think of ourselves as confident bettors who can find a side to back quickly, but with this game, we keep going back and forth.
On the one hand, the Roughriders should be bigger ‘dogs, even if Sasky is at home and Montreal might be fielding a backup QB in the starting position. Nevertheless, with the way Montreal’s defence has been playing as of late, the line makes sense.
Most know that Shea Patterson isn’t capable of leading this Roughrider team. He’s done okay, but Trevor Harris is the man that Saskatchewan needs at the helm going forward. But EVERYONE who watches the CFL is thinking the same damn thing.
According to the injury report, Trevor Harris had a full practice and should be back soonish?!?!? Maybe even this week?!?!?
Pick: All that being said, if Harris DOESN’T start, we’d recommend taking the Roughriders +2.5 spread and banking on a strong game from Patterson.
If Harris does start, we have a feeling the public is going to hammer the Over, so we’d recommend playing the Under 51.5 points as we believe the defences will shine.
We’ve said earlier that this game is tough to call. We’re really just throwing darts at the board with this one.
Bet on Alouettes vs. Roughriders
Edmonton Elks @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – August 17
Best moneyline odds: Elks -130 @ BetMGM, Tiger-Cats +125 @ Proline +
Best spread odds: Elks -1.5 (-115 @ Betway), Tiger-Cats +3 (-122 @ TonyBet)
Best over/under odds: Over 53 points (-108 @ Pinnacle), Under 53.5 (-110 @ BetRivers)
Folks in Hamilton are losing their minds with this Ticats team. We’re not going to lie; we get why. That said, even with Hamilton benching Bo Levi Mitchell in its game against Montreal last week, the Ticats looked pretty decent in the second half.
The Elks absolutely crushed the Lions last week, and really, that’s all we have to say about that. In the process of dominating BC, Elks QB Tre Ford injured himself. As we hate to trust injury reports in the CFL, we’re just going to say he’s 50/50 and may or may not start.
However, Edmonton is going to take a lot of money this week, especially with Hamilton’s recent struggles. It won’t matter who starts at QB for both teams. Add in the fact that the Elks are only small favourites, so the price seems like a gift, and Edmonton looks like the easy play. What the twerps might call a “SUPER MAX WHALE BET OF THE CENTURY.”
If you’ve been following us over the past few weeks, you know how we roll here.
Pick: Give us the Tiger-Cats +3 spread. When the world is ending, and everyone wants to fade the team that’s in crisis mode, you know, in the right situation, that team in crisis mode is the squad to back! Now, may the odds forever be in our favour.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ BC Lions – August 18
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers +100 @ bet365, Lions +150 @ Sports Interaction
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers +1.5 (-115 @ Betway), Lions +3.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction)
Best over/under odds: Over 46.5 points (-115 @ BetMGM), Under 49.5 (-112 @ Proline+)
If you haven’t heard the news yet, Nathan Rourke has signed with the BC Lions after his failed NFL stint. As you’d expect, everyone is going nuts; the CFL got its superstar back, and the Lions are now suddenly on the fast track to the Grey Cup, becoming the betting favourites seemingly overnight. Oddsmakers don’t know how to price this game, and the lines are changing fast. And it’s quite evident the bettors don’t know how to think about this one either.
Remember, just because Rourke signed with the Lions doesn’t mean he’ll be starting this week. And if he doesn’t start, the Lions are going to have a rough time against Winnipeg, a team that’s starting to have a mid-season resurgence.
We’ve called the Blue Bombers’ defence “dog water” in weeks past, but let’s be honest: Without Vernon Adams Jr., the Lions’ offence hasn’t been much better.
Also, if you think about it, the books aren’t going to let the Lions open as three-point or four-point ‘dogs at home (prior to the Rourke news) for no reason against a crappy team like the Blue Bombers… unless there’s a good reason. Oddsmakers would risk getting absolutely killed if BC shows up and wins the game outright. The public was almost a lock to back BC before the Rourke news. Now, they’ll back BC no matter what. Hence, all the line changes. Literally, as of this writing, every book is offering something different.
We forecast that the books will need the Blue Bombers to win outright and cover the spread, regardless of where the line settles.
Pick: No matter who starts at QB this week for BC, we’re taking the Blue Bombers +1.5 (-115 @ Betway) spread. With the Rourke signing just happening, we recommend waiting to see if he starts on Sunday. If Rourke does start, you’ll get a way better number on Winnipeg than +1.5. Not to mention, this angle will be even stronger.
