Unfortunately, for fans of the Canadian men’s basketball team, or just those who wanted to see Canada add to their Olympic medal collection, the dream ended in shocking fashion on Tuesday. Despite high expectations against France, the Canadians were unable to turn around a wholly disappointing first half and ultimately conceded an 82-73 final result.
At the same time, disappointment at home shouldn’t take away from the excitement of the event at large, and there is no shortage of elite talent still left in the field. That includes the super team in the United States and Nikola Jokic-led Serbia, who will square off in the semifinals on Thursday.
| United States Moneyline Odds | -2800 |
| Serbia Moneyline Odds | +1300 |
| Total | 188.5 points (Over -110, Under -110), |
| Point Spread | United States -17.0 (-110) |
| Time/Date | Aug. 8, 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC Stream: CBC Gem |
About the United States (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
This United States roster isn’t the 1992 Dream Team, at least in terms of the attention they captivate from the world stage, but they’re about as all-world as you can get, with every player up and down the roster bound for a bevy of All-Star nods and most well on their way to the Hall of Fame. Some of the greatest players of this generation find themselves as role players, happy just to be a part of such an elite mix.
With that said, their split record against the spread simultaneously is and isn’t a surprise. On one hand, you would think that a team as deep as theirs would be mopping the floor with just about any opponent. On the other hand, they’ve won their games by scores of 26, 17, 19, and 35. None have been all that close in the grand scheme of things, and playing at maximum effort in the early stages just to meet a betting line probably wasn’t a big priority for them.
Their biggest victory of the four came in their quarter-final matchup against Brazil. Many of the big names did their part in their own way. Joel Embiid, dealing with some ankle issues, got in a quick 12 minutes of work, scoring 14 points, before resting the rest of the way. Anthony Edwards continued to shine with 17 points and six rebounds. LeBron James added a cool nine assists, and Kevin Durant officially set the record for most points all-time by a U.S. Olympic basketball player.
Bruno “two years away from being two years away” Caboclo continued his impressive run at the games, scoring another 30 points, but the Raptors cult hero’s efforts weren’t enough to keep Brazil in the mix.
The emphasis on scoring by committee is one that should pay dividends for the Americans in these last two games, as no individual will be too overworked.
United States to Win Gold in Men’s Basketball at 2024 Olympics
-1000
About Serbia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
On the flip side, it’s been quite a bit less than by-committee for the Serbians in the last few days, as they relied on a monster performance from their superstars. Australia gave them a heck of a fight on Tuesday, building a 24-point lead at halftime that seemed insurmountable until Nikola Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic turned on the jets in the second half.
Jokic, who has won three of the last four NBA MVP’s including last season’s, electrified with 21 points and 14 rebounds, while Bogdanovic contributed 17 points. The comeback came on the heels of a 40-14 scoring run by the Serbians in the third quarter, though the game ultimately needed overtime to be solved.
Unsurprisingly, it was Serbia’s tightest challenge across their last three games, beating South Sudan by 11 and Puerto Rico by 41.
The real issue is that when you go one game further back, you end up at the beginning of the group stage, where these two teams have already faced each other. That wasn’t a night that went well for the Serbians. While Jokic, Bogdanovic, and a few others like Ognjen Dobric and Vasilije Micic were able to put up decent point totals, the first meeting was never in doubt for the Americans, who cruised to a 110-84 victory where they won every quarter, widening the gap more in the second half than they did in the first. That’s a tough omen for the underdogs.
Gold Medal Outright Odds
Player Props To Consider
- Kevin Durant over 14.5 points (-105): The Slim Reaper has meant nothing but business in this tournament, lighting up the group stage. He did step back a little bit against Brazil, scoring 11 points on eight field goal attempts and three free throws, but another explosive night for him would not be out of the cards.
- Nikola Jokic over 7.5 assists (-125): Serbia’s game is going to run through their generational big man, and that’s going to mean two things: A ton of touches, and a ton of American pressure, which may force him to lean into the distributor role even more. So far, he’s put up 29 assists in four games, putting him right along the line here, though that average is pulled down by a four-assist effort against South Sudan where he was fouled and brought to the line significantly more than the other games. As far as clearing the over, he’s done it in three of four games thus far.
- If you want to have some extra fun, you can take Durant, Edwards, and Jokic all to break the 15-point barrier at a same-game parlay rate of +500. In the group stage game, this wouldn’t have hit, though Edwards was only four points off and has only seen his role increase as the tournament has progressed.
Nikola Jokic (SRB) Over 7.5 Assists
-115
Serbia vs. United States Prediction
It’s really hard to go against Goliath in this one, which is why we’re going to stick with the United States. The head-to-head has already been shown to be in their favour, and the star talent gap is just too deep to see an upset happening. At best, a valiant effort could lead to Serbia outperforming the spread, but even that would require them to be 10 points better than they were in the group stage.
We’ll see some quality hoops here and hopefully some tense play for at least a good chunk of the game, but the safe money is on the United States playing for gold later in the week and Serbia for bronze.
