The Round of 16 is behind us, and we’re off to the EURO 2024 Quarter Finals! Eight teams remain in pursuit of glory, and the first four go head-to-head against each other on Friday afternoon. Here’s who we like ahead of kickoff and the betting odds you need to keep an eye on.
12:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Spain vs. Germany
| Spain Win | +180 | Germany Win | +185 | Draw | +215 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +102 | Under 2.5 Goals | -125 | Broadcast | TSN |
This game can potentially be the best from a talent perspective in the entire tournament.
Germany have been sublime hosts so far, kicking the tournament off with an explosive 5-1 win over Scotland and handily controlling their group the rest of the way. In the round of 16, they didn’t hesitate against Denmark, generating nine shots on target and scoring two second-half goals to pull away.
The Germans also have history on their side. Once a host nation gets to the quarters, they tend to stick around a while. Dating back to 1996, all of England, the Netherlands, Portugal, and France won their quarter-final games. Germany themselves have also won 15 of their last 18 at this stage.
At the same time, though, the Spaniards are formidable opponents. They didn’t concede a single goal in the group stage, winning 3-0 over Croatia, 1-0 over Italy, and 1-0 over Albania, and while that goose egg was finally cracked against Georgia in the Round of 16, they had no issue powering through to earn a 4-1 victory.
The last major game in a major tournament between these two was at the last World Cup, which saw Spain control possession, Germany control the shot volume and quality, and neither get an edge, ending in a 1-1 tie. Their last Euro matchup was in the 2008 final, which Spain won 1-0.
This game is too close to call—hence the tight betting lines—but it has all the potential for an instant classic.
Game Bets To Consider
- The markets love Kai Havertz to have an active night here, with his line for over two shots on target jumping from +175 to +150 overnight. Even still, there may be some value there – Havertz has seven shots on target in four games thus far and impressed with three shots on target, a goal, and 1.9 expected goals against Denmark. Spain will be a tougher challenge, but the Arsenal midfielder looks primed to rise to the occasion.
- Betano is offering a fairly interesting Same Game Parlay right now, featuring a win for Spain, a corner kick total of over 5.5 for Spain, and a shot on target for Nico Williams. Spain are a slight favourite to win this game, and Williams is in brilliant form, so the main question here lies within the corner line – Spain has taken 16 corners in four games while Germany has conceded 12, so the number seems a bit high. If it’s tempting you, the offer is at +725 – though perhaps recreating this offer yourself with an under on the corner line at +510 is the sharper play.
Bet on Spain vs. Germany
ESP +175
GER +190
3:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Portugal vs. France
| Portugal Win | +240 | France Win | +152 | Draw | +200 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +145 | Under 2.5 Goals | -182 | Broadcast | TSN |
Following up Spain and Germany we get another battle of two footballing powerhouses, though both teams have been in slightly rockier form than expected.
For France, much of this comes from their megastar forward Kylian Mbappe’s nose injury, which he suffered in their opening game against Austria. He missed their draw against the Netherlands and has been back in two games since, but he has been reported to be frustrated and discomforted by his protective mask, which will have to remain on for the rest of the tournament and some time after.
Still, you would hope they won’t rely too much on him to be their sole scorer, but we enter this quarter-final with the French having yet to score in open play—their three goals have come through a Mbappe penalty and two opponent own-goals. That needs to change in a hurry.
For Portugal, it’s been a nerve-wracking week after a strong start on paper. A shocking upset loss to Georgia to wrap up the group stage could be seen as a team letting its guard down with their position in the knockouts clinched, but the frustration in the Portuguese players’ faces hinted that something more was there. Sure enough, their struggles continued into the Round of 16. While they dominated possession and attempted a whopping 20 shots, their finishing was porous at best and they required penalties to get through, largely on the back of goalkeeper Diogo Costa’s heroics.
The elephant in the room is Cristiano Ronaldo. The 39-year-old, frankly, looks out of form, and a borderline detriment to the team as he commands the ball for every free kick, penalty kick, and open look. A man so used to being the main character is struggling with the realization that he can’t provide consistent heroics anymore, and either the team must adapt to either make the role easier for him, or less selfishly, he must be willing to be a secondary cog in the machine.
The last game between the two teams came in EURO 2020, a group-stage match that ended in a 2-2 draw. Ronaldo scored two penalty kicks, while Karim Benzema scored a penalty kick and an open-play goal. Benzema isn’t playing in this tournament, and Ronaldo isn’t performing, so a new script will likely be necessary on Friday.
Game Bets To Consider
- For those of you who are seeing stars, Betano has an enhanced odds promo available to take both Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe as options for the first goal scored in this game. Up from +215, you can get this duo at +240.
- Both of these players will take up a lot of individual attention in this one. If you just want to lean into Ronaldo finally opening his account for the tournament, his anytime goal line sits at +190, or you can get him for a shot on target at -238 (2+ shots at +192). For Mbappe, a goal sits at +167, a shot on target sits at -333, and multiple shots on target sit at +130.
Bet on Portugal vs. France
POR +240
FRA +152
Latest EURO 2024 Futures Odds
Here are the latest EURO 2024 Futures odds, heading into the matches on July 5:
| Team |  | Last Match | Team | | Last Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +375 | +400 | Netherlands | +650 | +1200 |
| England | +400 | +375 | Portugal | +900 | +750 |
| Germany | +425 | +450 | Switzerland | +1600 | +1400 |
| France | +450 | +650 | Turkey | +2900 | +4900 |
The top three have all seen slight tweaks to their math, largely based on market demand. The biggest changes come due to the implications of the last round of quarterfinal matchups – Portugal’s struggles against Slovenia have led to a dip in their odds despite a win on penalties. In contrast, their opponents in France have received an uptick. The Netherlands shot up due to Turkey upsetting Austria, and while Turkey climbed up as a matter of sheer process of elimination, their odds to win are still the longest of the remaining eight.
