Get primed with us as we dive into the major storylines in Week 5 of the CFL season.
Last week saw another slew of down-to-the-wire matchups, as 3 of 4 games were decided by 3 points or less. The Lions compounded Edmonton’s misery and edged out the winless Elks 24-21. BC’s Grey Cup odds stayed more or less unchanged as a result, as the 0-4 Elks’ chances continued to plummet.
The Ti-Cats were unsuccessful in their bid for a first win of the season. They succumbed to the Redblacks 24-22, thanks to a 12-point fourth quarter from Ottawa. Yet another winless team in Winnipeg dropped their chance to climb out of the hole, losing an OT thriller to the Stampeders. Our only decisive win of Week 4 came courtesy of the defending champion Montreal Alouettes, who handed Toronto their first L of the season to the tune of 30-20.
Lions to win the 2024 Grey Cup
Here’s a look at the latest CFL Grey Cup outright odds, followed by our Week 5 betting preview:
Toronto Argonauts @ Saskatchewan Roughriders – July 4
Best moneyline odds: Argos -169 (Caesars), Roughriders +159 (Pinnacle)
Best spread odds: Argos -3 (-115 @ Sports Interaction), Roughriders +4.5 (-118 @ BetVictor)
Best over/under odds: Over 48 points (-110 @ Sports Interaction), Under 48.5 points (-109 @ Pinnacle)
The Roughriders currently boast an unblemished record and already have half as many victories as they did last season. Despite that positive start, Saskatchewan (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) exits their Week 4 Bye facing down some major hurdles.
Chief among them is the recently announced MCL injury to starting QB Trevor Harris. Harris suffered the injury to his left knee in Week 3’s dismantling of the Ti-Cats and is now expected to miss at least six games, putting a major damper on a Riders season that started so strong. In his place, 27-year-old journeyman Shea Patterson steps into the starter role. Despite Patterson’s impressive credentials (including stints with the Kansas City Chiefs, BC Lions and Montreal Alouettes), his passing stats from last season leave much to be desired. In relief of Harris in Week 3, he attempted just six passes, completing only four for a mere 14 yards. Patterson has shown his value in the rushing game, recording touchdowns in each of the last two matches, and he’ll have to count on his scampering if the Riders hope to keep rolling.
The Argonauts (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) saw their unbeaten streak snapped by Montreal last week, and it’s not too farfetched to think they’d also arrive to this game unbeaten if they’d played anyone but the Als. Nevertheless, Cameron Dukes continues to shine at QB, leading the league with a 76.3% completion rate and throwing five touchdowns.
Runningback Ka’Deem Carey may face challenges against the Riders’ stout run defence, which permits a league-low 32.7 rushing yards per game. Despite this, the Riders’ defence remains vulnerable in the air, conceding the second-most passing yards per game at 337.
The Argos likely prove too much for the Riders and their backup QB here and hand Saskatchewan their first loss of the season.
Picks: Argos -3 (-115 @ Sports Interaction), Toronto Argonauts to Score First and Win (+150 @Northstar Bets)
Ottawa Redblacks @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers – July 5
Best moneyline odds: Blue Bombers -150 (betway), Redblacks +140 (BetRivers)
Best spread odds: Blue Bombers -2.5 (-115 @ Pinnacle), Redblacks +3.5 (-133 @ BetVictor)
Best over/under odds: Over 46 points (-109 @ Pinnacle), Under 47.5 points (-125 @ BetVictor)
Like Saskatchewan, the Blue Bombers host the Redblacks at a time of uncertainty.
Last week, QB Zach Collaros, still searching for his first touchdown of the season, was sidelined after taking a hard hit. Collaros missed a mid-week practice and is said to be dealing with a thorax injury. To make matters worse, that’s not the only concern for Winnipeg (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). The team will face down the rest of this season without their star receiver, Dalton Schoen, who’s been sidelined by a knee injury. There remains a silver lining for the Blue Bombers’ as their receiving corps is still strong with Nic Demski, who has already racked up 233 yards, and Drew Wolitarsky, who has accumulated 194 yards. Of course, receivers are only as good as their quarterback can make them, and with Collaros’ health as nebulous as it is, it does not bode well for Week 5.
The Redblacks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have already won against Winnipeg this season and seem primed to go 2 for 2.
Powered by RB Ryquell Armstead, Ottawa will aim to dominate the play clock on Friday and allow minimal time for the Bombers to find any rhythm. Armstead is steadily establishing himself as one of the league’s premier dual-threat backs. In Week 4, he amassed 104 yards from scrimmage on 14 touches. While he has yet to score a touchdown, this drought will likely end soon.
Despite the Blue Bombers allowing just 94.5 rushing yards per game, they’ve struggled with time of possession, allowing opponents to control the ball for an average of 33:05 minutes per game. This scenario plays to Armstead’s strengths, positioning him to potentially see a ton of touches this Friday.
With Ottawa controlling the clock and Winnipeg reeling from injury, expect this one to be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 47.5 points (-125 @ BetVictor)
Bet on Redblacks vs. Blue Bombers
Calgary Stampeders @ Montreal Alouettes – July 6
Best moneyline odds: Alouettes -471 (@ Pinnacle), Stampeders -379 (@ Pinnacle)
Best spread odds: Alouettes -9.5 -105 (@ Pinnacle), Stampeders +9.5 -109 (@ Pinnacle)
Best over/under odds: Over 50 points (-116 @ TonyBet), Under 50.5 points (-105 @ Pinnacle)
The Stampeders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are 9.5-point dogs for only the third time since 2016, and in those two previous cases, they managed to cover the healthy spreads. That likely won’t be the case this time, however, as the Alouettes represent the boogeyman of the 2024 CFL season.
In their last two encounters, Calgary struggled to surpass 22 points. Facing the 2024 Alouettes’ formidable defence, which concedes a mere 18.3 points per game, this tally might be even lower. Montreal (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has not allowed any opponent to score more than 21 points this season.
On the other side of the ball, it’s a joy to watch the Alouettes go to work on offence. Despite boasting the league’s second-best pass defence (conceding just 271.3 yards per game), Calgary faces a significant test against Montreal’s versatile receiving unit. The corps consisting of Reggie White, Jr., Cole Spieker, Kaion Julien-Grant and Tyson Philpot have powered the high-flying Alouettes offence and have played a large part in QB Cody Fajardo’s sparkling stat line this year (101 completions for 1200 Yards and 8 TDs).
Picks: Alouettes -9.5 -105 (@ Pinnacle), First to 30 Points – Alouettes (-127 @ Northstar Bets)
BC Lions @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats – July 7
Best moneyline odds: Lions (-233 @ TonyBet), Tiger-Cats +210 (BetRivers)
Best spread odds: Lions -5 (-110 @ Caesars), Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-110 @ Sports Interaction)
Best over/under odds: Over 52.5 points (-110 @ BetRivers), Under 53.5 points (-110 @ Caesars)
The Ti-Cats (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS) continue to search for that elusive first win. Their four-game winless streak to start the season claimed its first casualty on Tuesday as Hamilton parted ways with special teams coordinator Paul Boudreau after only four games with the organization. Hamilton currently ranks third in the league for net punting and fourth for punt return average. They stand eighth in opponent punt return average, sixth in kickoff return average, and seventh in opponent kickoff return average.
It’s hard to imagine that jettisoning the special teams coach will resurrect a seemingly forlorn season. Sure, there’s plenty of runway left for Hamilton to take off, but a trend of letting close games slip is emerging, and that trend is unlikely to be reversed this week.
The Lions (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), on the other hand, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, edging out the Elks with a game-ending field goal in Week 4.
In terms of offence, the Lions and Ti-Cats stack up fairly evenly. BC (averaging 408.3 yards per game), and Hamilton (averaging 390.5), are the top teams in yardage gained this season. Both teams have demonstrated their ability to advance down the field effectively, with BC leading the league in first downs at 91, closely followed by Hamilton at 86. However, it is the defensive side of the game where the Lions can find an edge. The Ti-Cats have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 31.3 points per game, good enough for dead last in the CFL.
Pick: Lions -5 (-110 @ Caesars)
