The Edmonton Oilers got to taste a little bit of catharsis on Saturday night, shaking off a frustrating first three games with a massive blowout win in Game 4. Unfortunately for them, the Stanley Cup is won through wins, not goal differential, so they still have their backs against the wall on Tuesday night, with no room for error in the next three games. Let’s look at their odds at prolonging this series for at least a couple of more days, starting tonight.
Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 5
The moneyline favourites are the Panthers, coming in between -128 and -140 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Panthers vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Panthers Moneyline Odds | +122 @ Pinnacle |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -128 @ Betano |
| Puckline odds | Oilers +1.5 (-217) @ Pinnacle Panthers -1.5 (+193) @ Pinnacle |
| Series odds | Oilers +700, Panthers -1100 @ Bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-101) @ Pinnacle Under 5.5 goals (-111) @ Pinnacle |
| Time/Date | June 18, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
The party started pretty early in Edmonton on Saturday, as despite an early penalty for Darnell Nurse, Mattias Janmark responded to the moment by scoring a short-handed goal on the ensuing penalty kill. Adam Henrique wasn’t far behind, adding a second goal before the eight-minute mark, sending signals that the depth players were here to help tonight.
This was further amplified when, after Vladimir Tarasenko cut the lead in half with his second consecutive night with a Panthers goal, Dylan Holloway responded with his fourth of the playoffs. Yes, this was going to be a different night for the Oilers. Early in the second, Connor McDavid and Nurse added two more goals, shockingly ending Sergei Bobrovsky’s night. Anthony Stolarz came in to clean up the rest of the game, and the Oilers kept going, adding three more goals for good measure.
Betting Florida Panthers (15-6 SU, 10-11 ATS, 9-12 o/u)
Some players shy away from pressure during a productive slump, while others have the guts to invite it. Matthew Tkachuk put himself firmly on the latter end this morning.
“Hopefully looking for my best game of the series tonight,” said the Florida star forward. “The good thing about us is it’s not about one guy or individuals here. We have a chance to capture our biggest goal of our life tonight, so we are going to go do that.”
Tkachuk, who saw his playoff reputation permanently flip from chronic underachiever to big-game player thanks to an electric first three rounds last season, has been a little under the radar in terms of his struggles this year. While he started off strong with 13 points in his first eight games, the 26-year-old has since put up a single goal in his last 15 games and just seven points in his last 13. So far in this series, he’s put just one assist on the board and carries a -3 goal differential. Tonight would be a great night to snap the skid.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (13-9 SU, 8-14 ATS, 11-11 o/u)
On the other end, Connor McDavid delivered yet another 97 Takeover Night on Saturday, even if it wasn’t necessarily crucial to the score. Along with scoring the 4-1 tally to open the second period, he assisted on the next three goals that followed, putting the game officially out of reach.
What made it such a big deal, however, was the big-picture accomplishment that came from it. The third assist, on Dylan Holloway’s second goal that made it 7-1, gave McDavid 32 helpers in the playoffs. That’s the most from any player in a single playoff run in NHL history, breaking a record previously set by Wayne Gretzky. Those sorts of records don’t get broken very often, to say the least. McDavid’s 38 points are the most by any active player in a playoff run, and the fifth-most in NHL history. If the Oilers can pull off this comeback, his Conn Smythe Trophy odds will no doubt skyrocket, and a couple more takeover nights could bring Gretzky’s total points record of 47 within reach.
The Oilers captain is focused on the team, though.
“It’s just one win,” McDavid said after the win. “That’s all it is. It doesn’t matter if you score eight or if you score one. It’s just one win, and we’ve got to go to Florida and do a job and drag them back to Alberta.”
Projected Panthers vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Florida Panthers Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Evan Rodrigues – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Stenlund – Kyle Okposo Defence Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov Starting In Goal Sergei Bobrovsky Playoffs: 15-4-2, 2.27 GAA, 0.909 SV% Season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Warren Foegele – Leon Drasaitl – Evander Kane Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown Dylan Holloway – Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Philip Broberg Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner Playoffs: 12-7-1, 2.51 GAA, 0.898 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
I wouldn’t expect much change from the Oilers, who obviously had something working on Saturday. What the Panthers do now is more up for debate – it’s possible they make a roster move, like undoing the swap of Ryan Lomberg and Steven Lorentz that they made for Game 4, but I would imagine most, if any of their adjustments, would be through shuffling the forward lines.
Despite being pulled from Game 4, don’t hold your breath in goal. Bobrovsky will be back.
Matthew Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal
Panthers vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
The Oilers will likely remain without Evander Kane, who is out with an undisclosed injury believed to be connected to sports hernia issues from earlier in the season.
NHL Betting Trends
- In the head-to-head between these two teams going back to January 202, the Panthers are 6-4, with a 7-3 edge against the puckline. The total goals line has been divided by five unders, four overs, and a push.
- The Oilers are an even 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the puckline. Their total goals line is also 4-6, with four overs and six unders.
- The Panthers, on the other hand, are 7-3 in their last 10, with a similar 4-6 record against the puckline. They’ve had three overs and seven unders against the total goals line.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Connor McDavid’s big night added to his lead in Oilers production down the stretch. Over the last 10 games, McDavid leads Edmonton in goals (four) assists (13), points (17), and shots on goal (39). His assist total is four higher than anyone else on the team’s point total. This guy might be pretty good.
- On the other hand, we wait to see if Leon Draisaitl has gas left in the tank — his two goals and four assists over the last 10 games are fine, but they aren’t what we’ve come to expect from him, particularly in the postseason.
- For Florida, Sam Bennett leads the team in goals (five) and points (nine) in their last 10 games. Aleksander Barkov has the most assists with six, and Matthew Tkachuk has the most shots on goal with 33.
Panthers vs. Oilers Predictions
- I refuse to give up on Leon Draisaitl in this series. The shot volume was there on Saturday, and it feels like a matter of time where the points follow suit. You can get him to repeat the shots over of 2.5 at -139 on Betano, or you can look to him to score a point (-215 on FanDuel) or goal (+190 on FanDuel) as well.
- I’m not ready to declare the comeback officially on, but the Oilers showed in Game 4 that they’re willing to play hard with their backs against the wall, and that each given night is far from insurmountable. I’d look hard at the puckline in their favour tonight (+1.5, -217 at Pinnacle).
- If Florida closes out tonight, that Tkachuk quote reaffirms the gut feeling that it’ll come from him. I’m not sure about him racking up the goals (best value: +226 anytime on Pinnacle) or points (-154 over 0.5 on DraftKings), but I feel the over 2.5 line on shots on goal is a pretty safe pick at -167 on Betano. Yes, we’re returning to the well on a few of these picks, but in a pretty straightforward series where trends haven’t moved a ton, sometimes that’s the best play.
