The Edmonton Oilers are in a hole, but they’re in just the place they need to be to dig out of it. Home ice has flipped to make them the hosts, allowing them to tie things up before they head back to Florida. But it has to start Thursday – a loss here, and they might end up at the point of no return. Here’s what they’ll need to do tonight as they take on the Florida Panthers in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 3
The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in between -130 and -143 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Panthers vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Panthers Moneyline Odds | +122 @ Betano |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | +130 @ TonyBet |
| Puckline odds | Oilers -1.5 (+207) @ Pinnacle Panthers +1.5 (-225) @ FanDuel |
| Series odds | Oilers +375, Panthers -500 @ bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (+106) @ Pinnacle Under 5.5 goals (-115) @ DraftKings |
| Time/Date | June 13, 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
This game was a sloppy one, and it showed its thorns from the start. Sam Bennett took an early minor penalty for what looked like a knee-on-knee collision, and a few minutes later, Warren Foegele responded with one that had little to debate, ultimately resulting in a game misconduct. Oliver Ekman-Larsson soon took a penalty of his own, creating a 4-on-4 situation, which the Oilers turned into an opening goal courtesy of Mattias Ekholm.
That was a positive sign for an Oilers team that couldn’t beat Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 1, but Florida quickly went into a defensive lockdown, eliminating anything dangerous from nearing the net for what felt like an eternity. Midway through the second period, Niko Mikkola tied the game for the Panthers, ripping a one-timer off of an Anton Lundell drop pass. In the early minutes of the third period, Evan Rodrigues ripped a wrister to put Florida up. After Leon Draisaitl threw a very controversial hit (more on that later), Rodrigues made the Oilers pay once again, redirecting a pass to the slot late in the ensuing power play to give his team insurance. Aaron Ekblad added an empty-netter with two and a half minutes remaining to seal the game.
Betting Florida Panthers (14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS, 7-12 o/u)
While the victory is undoubtedly nice – after all, the Cats now have to win just two of the next five to capture their first Stanley Cup – the concern for the Panthers now shifts towards the health of their captain. With nine and a half minutes remaining, Aleksander Barkov was injured by a borderline hit from Oilers star Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl, who appeared banged up himself at this point, leaped into Barkov to deliver a hit no doubt laden with frustration, getting him high. The immediate result was a minor penalty that led to the Rodrigues 3-1 goal, and the Department of Player Safety decided to leave it at that. Whether they would do the same in the regular season or for a lesser player is certainly up for debate.
Panthers coach Paul Maurice tried to avoid adding fuel to the fire, in a way only he could. “This isn’t the Oprah Winfrey Show,” Maurice said after Game 2. “My feelings don’t matter.” He was more positive on Tuesday, saying that Barkov wasn’t feeling worse and progressing well. The two-way superstar would be a huge loss if he couldn’t go tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye out for.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (12-8 SU, 7-13 ATS, 9-11 o/u)
Draisaitl’s hit wasn’t the only one from Edmonton that was lucky to avoid scrutiny. Foegele’s knee on Eetu Luostarinen saw nothing more than the game misconduct attached to it, and a late-game “cup check” from Sam Carrick received a small fine but no games of punishment.
This is good for them, because they will need all hands on deck to solve the Panthers from here. After having a game of good process but poor results, Monday felt like not much of either. The Oilers mustered just 19 shots on the evening, including only seven in the first two periods. What’s worse, little of their contribution seemed to come from their forwards, with 13 of the 19 shots, including their lone goal coming from the blue line. Connor McDavid was fine and got an assist, but wasn’t himself. Draisaitl’s lead highlight was his hit, Zach Hyman produced just one shot, and after that? Goose eggs across the board – the entire rest of the forward group was shotless and either had a zero or negative on goal differential.
Edmonton will need much more from their forwards tonight. That starts at the top, but it spills all the way down.
Projected Panthers vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Florida Panthers Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart Matthew Tkachuk – Sam Bennett – Evan Rodrigues Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko Steven Lorentz – Kevin Stenlund – Kyle Okposo Defence Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov Starting In Goal Sergei Bobrovsky Playoffs: 14-3-2, 2.02 GAA, 0.916 SV% Season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Dylan Holloway – Leon Draisaitl – Evander Kane Warren Foegele – Ryan McLeod – Corey Perry Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique- Connor Brown Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Vincent Desharnais Philip Broberg – Brett Kulak Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner Playoffs: 11-6-1, 2.51 GAA, 0.896 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
If we’re being honest, we’re not going to know much about the exact lineups until puck-drop, given how many players are banged up after Monday. The projected lineups above are based on Monday’s lines, but we would be floored if there wasn’t at least one change here.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal
Panthers vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
There are a few names to keep an eye on across both lineups after Game 2’s back and forth. For Edmonton, Evander Kane was labouring for much of the night, and Darnell Nurse missed the majority of the back half of the game after an early injury. For Florida, Aleksander Barkov’s status remains unknown following the hit from Leon Draisaitl in the third period.
NHL Betting Trends
- The Panthers are 6-4 in the last 10 games between the two teams, dating back to October 2019. Florida has a 7-3 edge against the puckline in that span. The total goals line has leaned towards the under in six of 10.
- Edmonton is 6-4 in their last 10 games overall, with a 4-6 record against the puckline and a total goals split of two overs, seven unders, and a push.
- Florida are 7-3 in their own last 10 games, with a 3-7 record against the puckline and a 1-9 split against the total goals line.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Connor McDavid leads the Oilers with 14 points in their last 10 games, and also leads the team in assists with 11 (shared with Evan Bouchard). Zach Hyman has the team lead in goals (five) and shots on goal (39).
- Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe share the Panthers’ lead in points with eight apiece in their last 10 games. They also each have a co-leading four goals, which is shared with Sam Reinhart.
- Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Anton Lundell share the Panthers’ lead in assists over their last 10, with five. Tkachuk has the most shots on goal on the team with 33.
Panthers vs. Oilers Predictions
- I have to think the McDavid dam bursts at some point – no matter how well the Panthers are playing, an extended cold slump feels unlikely – but we’ll back off the points for now. Instead, lean in on the process and take the shots on goal over tonight. McDavid’s line sits at 3.5 shots (best value: +100 on Bet99), which he’s cleared in half of his games in these playoffs. There will be an emphasis on volume tonight after their struggles last game and I expect him to be at the forefront.
- Matthew Tkachuk hasn’t scored a goal in seven games now, and has just one in his last 13. This might feel like a bad time to back him, but he’s a player who thrives in enemy territory, and there’s likely no place that enjoys him less than Edmonton amid a Stanley Cup Final. His best value on an anytime goal tonight is on Sports Interaction at +230.
- Vladimir Tarasenko is another player to keep an eye on with Florida, as he’s generated a bunch of high-danger chances to open the series but has yet to bury one himself. He’s also a potentially high-value play, with a goal sitting at +440 on FanDuel.
