The NHL’s Western Conference Final continues on Friday night as the Edmonton Oilers head to Dallas to take on the Stars. After a tough start to Game 4 that seemed to put the entire season in danger, Edmonton stormed back to pick up a statement victory, tying the series and making it a de-facto best-of-three the rest of the way. Let’s look at how the two teams plan on inching each other toward the brink going into Friday’s festivities.
Bet on Stars vs. Oilers GM 5
The moneyline favourites are the Stars, coming in between -122 and -130 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Stars vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Stars Moneyline Odds | -121 @ Pinnacle |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | +112 @ Betano |
| Puckline odds | Oilers +1.5 (-225) @ BetMGM Stars -1.5 (+211) @ Pinnacle |
| Series odds | Oilers +100, Stars -120 @ Bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-103) @ Proline+ Under 5.5 goals (+105) @ betway |
| Time/Date | May 31, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
This game started in a very different direction from when it finished – this time, in Edmonton’s favour. The Stars came out flying, scoring two goals in the first five and a half minutes before the Oilers could even muster up a serious offensive zone look. Wyatt Johnston and Esa Lindell had everyone feeling like this would be a long night, but by the end of the period, Ryan McLeod and Evan Bouchard were able to tie the game for the Oilers.
Things didn’t stop there. In the span of a minute in the late second period, the Oilers picked up a lead and built on it. Mattias Janmark scored a shorthanded goal while Derek Ryan sat in the penalty box, and Leon Draisaitl followed him up shortly after the Ryan penalty expired. Mattias Ekholm added an empty-netter.
Betting Dallas Stars (10-7 SU, 7-10 ATS, 7-9 o/u)
It’ll be interesting to see how the Stars respond to this loss. This is just the second time in these playoffs that they’ve given up more than four goals. In fact, only two of their wins have involved conceding more than a pair.
It’s not a situation where you can blame Jake Oettinger for his performance, as the goals conceded weren’t especially bad, and the netminder has been excellent for them throughout the series. Perhaps you look at the shorthanded goal against with some regret, but even that play starts with a tough rebound off a blocked shot, which quickly became an Edmonton 2-on-1.
Maybe you focus on a seeming lack of determination to twist the knife after the first pair of goals, but at this stage of the season, you aren’t exactly dealing with easy opponents, especially once their home crowd breathes life into them. The best you can do is to take advantage of your home rink and hope that that advantage, combined with road success throughout the year, gives you two good cracks at victory in the next three games.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (10-6 SU, 5-11 ATS, 9-7 o/u)
If there was ever a moment for credit where it’s due, it goes to Darnell Nurse for his recovery in this game. There was already all sorts of pressure on him after Game 3, which got worse after Philip Broberg was brought into the lineup to replace his partner Vincent Desharnais instead of him.
After the first two goals – one where he left a lot of room for Johnston on a 2-on-1, and another where the puck bounced in off his pants – it felt like things would hit a whole new bottom. Instead, he shook off the potential disaster and played some of his best hockey of the playoffs from that point on, notching an assist, three blocked shots, and a whopping dozen hits. If he can use this to channel some swagger and keep his game simple from here on out, a lot of worries will vanish in a hurry.
Meanwhile, Connor McDavid continues his recent trend of raking without feeling like the game gravitates to him – another three assists give him seven points in four games in this series. Not much of it has been particularly loud, though his intentional rebound to Bouchard on the second goal was very nice. Still, the efforts are helping his team get the job done.
Projected Stars vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Dallas Stars Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Tyler Seguin Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Joe Pavelski Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Logan Stankoven Evgenii Dadonov – Sam Steel – Radek Faksa Defence Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen Esa Lindell – Chris Tanev Ryan Suter – Alex Petrovic Starting In Goal Jake Oettinger PO: 10-5-2, 2.14 GAA, 0.919 SV% Season: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, 0.905 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Ryan McLeod – Leon Draisaitl – Corey Perry Evander Kane – Adam Henrique – Dylan Holloway Mattias Janmark – Derek Ryan – Connor Brown Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Brett Kulak Philip Broberg – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner PO: 9-4-1, 2.71 GAA, 0.887 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
We’ll see what happens regarding lineup changes in the coming hours. Chris Tanev will likely be a game-time decision (more in a bit), and I wonder if the Broberg for Desharnais decision holds for more than just the one game in Edmonton.
Connor McDavid to score a goal
Stars vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
Dallas’ Chris Tanev left Game 4 in the second period after blocking a shot, and it remains to be seen if he draws in Friday. As it stands, the team remains hopeful that he’ll return – and he’s certainly not a player who shies away from playing through pain.
NHL Betting Trends
- The two teams have evenly split their last 10 games against each other, going 5-5 dating back to November 2022. The puckline is also split down the middle, and the total goals line has a slight edge to the over (6-4). Over the last five games, the Stars have won three, both straight up and against the puckline.
- The Oilers are 6-4 over their last 10 games, with a 3-7 record against the puckline. Their total goals line has hit the over four times in that span, along with five unders and a push.
- The Stars are also 6-4 over their last 10 games, though they have a 6-4 record against the puckline. Their total goals line has been split between five overs and five unders.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Connor McDavid leads the Oilers in points over their last 10 games, picking up 15 points through three goals and a team-leading dozen assists. Leon Draiasaitl leads the team in goals with five, and Zach Hyman leads the team in shots on goal with 44.
- Over in Dallas, Jamie Benn leads the Stars in scoring over their last 10 games, with 12. Benn has three goals and a team-leading nine assists. Tyler Seguin and Wyatt Johnson share the team lead in goals with five apiece, while Seguin has the shots-on-goal lead with 33.
- The battle of the young blueliners rages on in this series, with Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen having five goals and six assists in his last 10 games, while Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard has five goals and eight assists.
Stars vs. Oilers Predictions
- Even Bouchard remains super hot and I think he’ll continue to facilitate for Edmonton. His best value on a point is at -190 on DraftKings, or you can get him for over two shots on goal on Pinnacle at -149.
- The Stars will come out firing in this one, looking to make up for Game 4’s performance. Stuart Skinner’s save line sits at only 24.5, meaning it’ll take a stellar defensive effort or a quick pull to get him away from that. I’d lean towards him, clearing the over at -118 on Betano.
- Look to Dallas to start similarly to Wednesday, but hold it a bit longer. You can get Dallas -0.5 after the first period on Pinnacle for +185, or if you just want to lean on activity, you can go over 1.5 total first period goals on PowerPlay at -110.
