Things are not going according to plan for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Entering play Wednesday, the Blue Jays find themselves dead last in the American League East Division with a 16-20 record. They’ve dropped four straight series and are in danger of losing a fifth consecutive series should they fall to the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday afternoon. Toronto has a dreadful -46 run differential, the second-worst mark in the American League ahead of the Chicago White Sox, and is averaging just 3.6 runs per game (25th in the majors).
Oddsmakers at bet365 set Toronto’s season win total at 87.5 earlier this spring, prognosticating them to be a playoff contender in the American League. The Jays had +1400 odds to win the World Series, +350 odds to win the division, and -160 odds to make the playoffs. As it stands Wednesday, Toronto is now a long +4000 to win the World Series, +1800 to win the division, and +225 to make the playoffs after just 36 games.
Blue Jays to make playoffs
+225
Toronto’s dreadful start to the season has also prompted another sportsbook, Sports Interaction, to post markets on when/if Manager John Schneider and General Manager Ross Atkins will potentially be fired. There’s also a market being offered on slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being traded by the end of the season.
When will the Blue Jays fire Schneider?
Schneider took over as the Blue Jays’ interim manager on July 13, 2022 after the club fired Charlie Montoyo. He led the team to an impressive 46-28 record (.622-win percentage) and a wild-card berth. Now in his third season as manager of the club, Schneider holds a 151-121 record (.555-win percentage), but the Jays are winless in four postseason games under his watch. He’s already been ejected twice this year after being tossed four times over the previous two seasons, and he’s won only 32 of his 85 replay challenges (37.6% overturn rate) as manager of the team.
Toronto’s schedule will be difficult over the next couple of weeks, with three series scheduled against teams with records currently over .500 — the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, and Tampa Bay Rays. Following that stretch, the Jays will get a break, with six of their next 10 games against the lowly White Sox, who have just eight wins entering play Wednesday.
With the team struggling mightily out of the gate, you have to wonder if Schneider’s job is in jeopardy. In an article earlier this spring, MLB Insider and Analyst, Jim Bowden, predicted Schneider would be the first coach fired this season.
| Timeline for Schneider to be fired | Odds |
|---|---|
| This week (before May 16) | +800 |
| Before the All-Star Game (May 16 – July 16) | +160 |
| After the All-Star Game, before end of season (July 17 – Sept. 29) | +130 |
| Will not get fired before end of the season | +300 |
When will the Blue Jays fire Atkins?
This is Atkins’ ninth season as general manager of the Blue Jays and he’s currently under contract through the 2026 season. The 50-year-old executive has been heavily criticized for the team’s lack of moves to bolster the roster this past offseason, although he did narrowly swing and miss on signing two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani.
Toronto has completed over 100 trades since Atkins took the reins, and he acquired several impactful players such as Matt Chapman, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez, among others throughout his tenure. He’s also signed several marquee free agents, including Kevin Gausman, Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Hyun-jin Ryu, George Springer, Chris Bassitt, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Yusei Kikuchi, among others.
One recent trade made by Atkins that appears not to have positive early returns is the deal that sent Gurriel Jr. and catcher Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho. Gurriel Jr. was named an All-Star for the first time in his career in 2023 after being dealt and Moreno flourished during the postseason last year for Arizona by swatting four homers and driving in 12 runs in 17 games. Varsho, who provides exceptional defensive perks, has largely struggled at the plate for Toronto since being acquired after crushing 27 home runs and recording 74 RBIs for Arizona in 2022.
| Timeline for Jays to fire Atkins | Odds |
|---|---|
| This week (before May 16) | +1400 |
| Before the All-Star Game (May 16 – July 16) | +300 |
| After the All-Star Game, before end of season (July 17 – Sept. 29) | +300 |
| Will not get fired before end of the season | +100 |
Will Guerrero Jr. be traded?
Sports Interaction is offering +1000 odds on the prospect of Guerrero Jr., who is under contract through the 2025 season, being traded during the 2024 season. The first baseman was awarded $19.9 million via arbitration last winter, and he’s under team control for next season as well. His long-term future with the team appears questionable after team executives elected to put Guerrero Jr. through the brutal arbitration process instead of mutually agreeing to a deal beforehand. Teams typically don’t sit down in a board room and exhaustively expose flaws in a player’s game for the sake of saving a few dollars if there’s mutual interest in a long-term future between the two parties.
Vladdy’s bat has been coming around recently but his April numbers were dreadful. He slashed .219/.305/.324 for the month with just two home runs and 10 RBIs. His stats have consistently declined since his Herculean 2021 season when he hit 48 homers and drove in 111 runs, which makes his long-term future with the club murky.
Shortstop Bo Bichette is also slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season and it would require significant financial resources to sign both players to long-term pacts.
The odds of Vladdy, a fan favourite in Toronto, being dealt during the 2024 season appear to be slim. There’s likely a much greater chance of the 25-year-old being potentially dealt this winter, or at some point during the 2025 season, if the two sides can’t agree on an extension soon.
