After a tough back-to-back on the weekend, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had a day to catch their breath and dive back into the dog days of the regular season. On Tuesday night, they’ll host the New Jersey Devils, a team on the outside looking in, but always capable of making nights tough on even the best opponents.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Devils
TOR -140
NJ +120
The Maple Leafs are moderate home favourites, coming in at -140 on the moneyline at bet365. That number has shifted towards Toronto’s favour in the early morning.
Devils vs. Maple Leafs Betting Odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -140 |
| Devils Moneyline Odds | +120 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170), Devils +1.5 (-205) |
| Total | 6.5 goals (over -120, under +100) |
| Time/Date | March 26, 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN4 Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (40-21-9 SU, 27-43 ATS, 38-30-3 o/u)
As mentioned in the intro, the Maple Leafs slogged through a tough back-to-back this weekend, beating the Edmonton Oilers in a mostly decisive fashion (with a somewhat scare at the end). Sunday saw them travel from Toronto to Raleigh to face the Carolina Hurricanes for the second time in eight days, and unfortunately for them, they got a near-identical result without a loser point attached.
The Hurricanes took advantage of a sleepy Toronto team right out of the gate, with Brady Skjei scoring the first goal of the game a little over a minute in, and Sebastian Aho following up with a power-play tally off a freak deflection midway through the period. The Leafs struggled to put much together offensively from there, and for a while, it looked like former Toronto netminder Frederik Andersen would be the one to end their seasons-long no-shutout streak. Nick Robertson was able to snap that with 11 minutes ago, but the team couldn’t find another tally to go with it, ultimately taking the 2-1 defeat.
About the Devils (35-33-4 SU, 35-37 ATS, 39-32-1 o/u)
It’s been a disappointing year for the Devils, a team that a lot of experts saw as a potentially serious threat to win it all in 2023/24 going into opening night. One big concern was goaltending, however, and that’s been a big part of what has made this a less-than-successful season for the red and black. Only six teams have allowed more goals than the Devils this year, and one can look to the team’s .887 save percentage (30th) as part of how they ended up in this predicament.
Injuries for Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and a still-out Dougie Hamilton certainly didn’t help things. A parallel I can’t help but see here is the 2016/17 Tampa Bay Lightning, who dipped out of the playoff picture despite high hopes due to a series of tough-luck circumstances, only to begin a run of elite play for the next half-decade and counting.
The Devils will still try to keep hope alive for the time being, though, as they sit five points back of the second wild-card spot with 10 games to go.
Last Matchup
Toronto and New Jersey have somehow crammed all of their games against each other this year into the final few weeks, making tonight the first of 2023/24. The last game between the two was a little over a year ago at the Prudential Center, and it was one where Toronto barely squeaked out with a win. A quick pair of third-period goals by the Devils put them ahead 3-2 with five minutes remaining, but an equalizer from Michael Bunting and a go-ahead power-play goal from Auston Matthews gave Toronto what they needed to win.
Projected Devils and Leafs Lines
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Today’s New Jersey Devils Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Max Domi Bobby McMann – John Tavares – William Nylander Matthew Knies – Pontus Holmberg – Nick Robertson Connor Dewar – David Kampf – Noah Gregor Defence Jake McCabe – Timothy Liljegren TJ Brodie – Ilya Lyubushkin Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins Starting In Goal Joseph Woll 10-8-1, 2.86 GAA, 0.912 SV% | Forwards Timo Meier – Nico Hischier – Jesper Bratt Jack Hughes – Erik Haula – Alexander Holtz Ondrej Palat – Tomas Nosek – Dawson Mercer Maxwell Willman – Chris Tierney – Santeri Hatakka Defence Kevin Bahl – John Marino Luke Hughes – Nick DeSimone Brendan Smith – Simon Nemec Starting In Goal Jake Allen 9-14-3, 3.55 GAA, 0.898 SV% |
There aren’t any projected changes for the Maple Leafs forwards. The blue line is significantly shaken up and isn’t yet finalized, with Morgan Rielly’s status looking like a game-time decision.
One thing to note here is that the numbers for projected New Jersey starter Jake Allen is more than a bit deceiving. After striking out on the big fish in between the pipes, Allen was one of two Hail Mary plays by the Devils at the trade deadline to try to address their issues in goal. So far with New Jersey, Allen is 3-2-0 with a 2.41 GAA and a 0.923 save percentage.
Auston Matthews to score a goal
-140
Key Injuries
The Maple Leafs showed up with a crush load of injury updates this morning. Mitch Marner is now day-to-day with his ankle injury but isn’t ready to go just yet. Ilya Samsonov is day-to-day following an injury on Sunday but could be back in the mix as soon as tomorrow. Morgan Rielly is a game-time decision, and Joel Edmundson is day-to-day and unlikely to play for the rest of this week.
The Devils are missing some key pieces as well. Dougie Hamilton has been out since early December with a torn pectoral muscle, Nathan Bastian has been out for the past month with a lower-body injury, and Curtis Lazar has been out the past few days with a lower-body injury.
NHL Betting Trends
- The Maple Leafs have had a pretty successful history with the Devils over the past few years, winning nine of the last 10 games between the two teams dating back to December 2018. The lone loss came in a November 2022 game in Toronto.
- Toronto also cleared the puckline in seven of those 10 games, while the total goals over was cleared in six of 10.
- The Maple Leafs have evenly split their last 10 games – a 5-5 record straight-up, a 5-5 record against the puckline, and five total goals overs to go with five unders.
- New Jersey is in a very similar boat, going 5-5 straight-up and against the puckline in their last 10, but going 3-7 in terms of clearing the total goals line.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Auston Matthews leads Toronto’s skaters with 13 points in the last 10 games, including a tie for the team lead in assists (8), and a lead in shots on goal (44) in that stretch.
- Leading the Maple Leafs in goals over the last 10 games is William Nylander, who has six. Trailing just behind, Matthews and John Tavares have five, Bobby McMann has four, and Tyler Bertuzzi and Pontus Holmberg have three.
- For New Jersey, a previously ice-cold Timo Meier has started to heat up, leading the Devils in goals (nine), points (14), and shots on goal (40) over their last 10 games. Nico Hischier and both Jack & Luke Hughes split the lead for assists with seven apiece in that run.
Devils vs. Maple Leafs Predictions
- Today’s Auston Matthews anytime goal line, with the super-sniper just two goals away from 60 on the season, is -140. The Devils have been a team that Matthews has had success against throughout his career, potting 14 goals in 15 games against them, with two hat tricks and just six goalless games.
- A stretch this morning where Tyler Bertuzzi was the only player on the prop market inspired me to dig into his history against the Devils, and he’s on a roll against them, with 10 points across six consecutive games dating back to February 2020. If you like him to keep that going, he’s -120 to exceed 0.5 points tonight.
- I’d give the over 6.5 goals some thought tonight at -120. Joseph Woll hasn’t been quite as dominant since coming back from his high ankle sprain and while Allen has been much better as a Devil than as a Canadien this year, the full body of work on the year hasn’t been great and the New Jersey sample is small. Toronto will be eager to fill the net after scoring just one on Sunday, and I could see this being a pretty explosive game in the right circumstances.
